US embassy cable - 04GUAYAQUIL1120

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, EC 
SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES IN GUAYAS AND GUAYAQUIL ELECTIONS 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: A pre-electoral assessment of Ecuador's 
largest city of Guayaquil and the surrounding province of 
Guayas suggests that the incumbent Social Christian Party 
(PSC) mayor and provincial prefect are likely to be re- 
elected in local elections on October 17.  Any result 
short of a PSC sweep of its political base in Guayas 
would be interpreted as a setback for the PSC at the 
national level.  President Guitierrez's Patriotic Society 
(PSP) candidates for mayor and prefect have almost no 
support.  Some opposition politicians have expressed 
concern about possible electoral fraud in Guayas, but 
their concerns appear to have been addressed. OAS plans 
to field eletion observers in Guayas to monitor the use 
of eletronic voting machines there.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2. (U) The province of Guayas has a total of 2,266,274 
eligible voters (26% of the national total), of which 
1,440,070 are in Guayaquil.  There are 10,016 voting 
centers across Guayas, with 7,211 located in Guayaquil. 
Voters will elect one provincial prefect, 28 mayors (all 
incumbents are up for reelection), 8 provincial 
councilors, 123 municipal councilors, and 37 rural 
councils representing 123,000 rural voters.  Guayas is 
one of five Ecuadorian provinces testing a new electronic 
voting system.  The system will be tested in the 
parroquia (parish) of Roca, which has 18,483 voters and 
93 voting centers. 
 
3.  (U) The 2000 election for prefect in Guayas was 
tainted by allegations of fraud against the PSC.  FE 
Humberto Mata who was then a candidate of the political 
movement Fuerza Ecuador, officially received almost 
400,000 votes, only 50,000 fewer than PSC winner Nicolas 
Lapentti.  Mata and his supporters charged that votes 
were stolen from him by manipupaltion of the vote count 
by the PSC although Mata told Guayaquil CG months ago 
that he did not believe enough were stolen to cost him 
the election.  The PSC currently dominates in Guayaquil 
and Guayas.  In 2002 presidential elections, PSC 
candidate Javier Neira (PSC) took 26% of the Guayas vote, 
followed by Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) with 24%.  In the second 
round of presidential voting in 2002, Noboa won 67% of 
the Guayas vote to President Gutierrez' 33%. 
 
Incumbents Favored in Major Races 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (SBU) According to various polls, all of which are 
considered to have a significant margin of error, 
incumbent mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot is ahead by a 
wide margin in the Guayaquil mayoral race. Polls sugest 
that Nebot, the popular Social Christian Party (PSC) 
candidate for re-election, will receive about 65% of the 
vote while his closest contender, TV personality Jimmy 
Jairala of the Ecuadorian Roldosist Party (PRE), has 
about 20%.  The PRIAN hopeful, Fernando Barreno barely 
reaches 3%. For prefect, Nicolas Lapentti (PSC), who is 
seeking a fourth term, is leading in the polls with 51%. 
His closets contender is Humberto Mata from Fuerza 
Ciudadana with 22% followed by Gloria Gallardo of PRIAN 
with about 7%.  The candidates for mayor and prefect from 
Patriotic Society (President Guitierrez' political 
party), Felipe Mantilla and Renan Borbua respectively, 
have single digit support of two percent or less. 
 
 
ELECTION PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) GUAYAQUIL CONSUL GENERAL MET WITH THE PRESIDENT 
OF GUAYAS ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL (TEG) DR. WALTER AVILES ON 
SEPTEMBER 29.  AVILES BELIEVES THE IMPROVEMENTS HE HAS 
MADE WILL PRODUCE TRANSPARENT ELECTION RESULTS WITH 
LITTLE ROOM FOR CORRUPTION.  A BOARD POSTED AT EACH 
VOTING CENTER TO REGISTER VOTES WILL BE ACCESSIBLE TO ALL 
ELECTION MONITORS AT THE VOTING CENTERS AND WILL LIMIT 
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FRAUD BECAUSE THE VOTE COUNT FOR EACH 
CANDIDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO ALL.  AVILES REPORTED THE 
TEG HEADQUARTERS WOULD BE OPENED TO POLITICAL PARTY 
REPRESENTATIVES OR CITIZENS WHO WANT TO WATCH THE PROCESS 
IN PERSON THROUGH TWO VIDEO CAMERAS AND TWO HUGE SCREENS 
INSTALLED IN THE TEG AUDITORIUM.  THE TEG HAS EXAMINED 
REPORTS OF POSSIBLE FRAUD IN THE LISTING OF GUAYAQUIL 
ELECTION MONITORES RELATED TO THE MUNICIPALITY AND 
PREFECTURE, BUT THESE WERE CLARIFIED AND RESOLVED THROUGH 
ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTATION SUBMITTED BY THE ACTING MAYOR 
AND PREFECT.  AVILES SAID MORE THAN 90,000 NEW VOTERS 
HAVE BEEN REGISTERED SINCE NOVEMBER 2003 AND GUAYAS 
PROVINCE WILL TRAIN 60,000 PEOPLE TO WORK IN VOTING 
BOOTHS ON OCTOBER 17. 
 
FRAUD CONCERNS BEING ADDRESSED 
------------------------------ 
 
6. (SBU) RECENT ALLEGATIONS OF POSSIBLE ELECTORAL FRAUD 
BY ROBERTO PONCE (PRIAN), VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE ELECTORAL 
TRIBUNAL OF GUAYAS (TEG), AND ENRIQUE PITA (ID) HAVE 
RESULTED IN THE SUPREME ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL (TSE) 
REASSIGNINIG SOME ELECTION DAY PERSONNEL.  PONCE AND PITA 
CLAIMED THAT THE MAJORITY OF PERSONNEL CHOSEN TO WORK AT 
POLLING PLACES ON ELECTION DAY WERE MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES 
WHO HAD BEEN LISTED AS EMPLOYEES FROM PRIVATE COMPANIES. 
AS A RESULT, THE TSE RECONSTITUTED LISTS OF 2,793 POLL 
WORKERS IN 27 CANTONS. 
 
7. (SBU) GUAYAQUIL CONSUL GENERAL ALSO MET WITH 
ANUNZIATTA VALDEZ, SUB-DIRECTOR OF THE USAID-FUNDED 
ELECTORAL WATCHDOG NGO "CITIZEN PARTICIPATION (PC),"ON 
SEPTEMBER 30. VALDEZ CHARACTERISED GUAYAQUIL AS A 
TOLERANT, RESPECTABLE, AND POLITICALLY MATURE CITY.  SHE 
DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VIOLENCE ON ELECTION DAY AND, TO 
THE CONTRARY, BELIEVES VOTERS REMAIN LARGELY APATHETIC 
ABOUT THE ELECTIONS.  THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY CASES OF 
PRE-ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN GUAYAS TO DATE. VALDEZ 
REPORTED PC WOULD FIELD 530 VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS IN GUAYAS 
ON OCTOBER 17 TO MONITOR THE ELECTIONS AND THE TALLY OF 
THE VOTES.  VALDEZ PRAISED THE WORK OF THE TEG AND NOTED 
THE TEG HAD FULLY COOPERATED WITH PC'S OBSERVATION 
EFFORTS.  SHE ADDED THAT MANY CANDIDATES HAVE ALSO 
EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR THE INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENS 
PARTICIPATION IN ELECTION OBSERVATION. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) THE POPULARITY OF THE PSC HAS GROWN IN GUAYAS 
OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS WITH THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF 
VISIBLE PHYSICAL IMPROVEMENTS TO THE CITY OF GUAYAQUIL 
AND THE ROAD SYSTEM IN THE PROVINCE, AND WILL LIKELY 
RESULT IN THE RE-ELECTION OF THE TOP PSC CONTENDERS.  THE 
PRE AND PRIAN, AND EVEN MORE SO THE UPSTART PSP, HAVE ALL 
HAD DIFFICULTY MAKING INROADS AGAINST THE PSC'S 
INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE IN GUAYAS.  ANY RESULT SHORT OF A 
SWEEP IN GUAYAS PROVINCE WOULD BE INTERPRETED AS A 
SETBACK FOR THE PSC AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, WHERE IT 
REMAINS THE LARGEST SINGLE PARTY IN CONGRESS. 
 
 
9.  (SBU) WITH LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THE OUTCOME OF THE 
MAJOR RACES FOR MAYOR OF GUAYAQUIL (JAIME NEBOT) AND FOR 
PREFECT OF GUAYAS (NICOLAS LAPENTTI), THERE IS LITTLE 
EXCITEMENT ABOUT THE ELECTIONS IN THE STREETS.  THERE IS 
ALSO RELATIVELY LITTLE CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE IN 
GUAYAQUIL ITSELF, ALTHOUGH SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE 
PROVINCE ARE BEDECKED WITH THE USUAL ELECTORAL TRAPPING 
OF BANNERS, PAINTED WALLS, SLOGANS AND POLITICAL RALLIES. 
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE ELECTION MONITORING PROCESS AND WHAT 
APPEARS TO BE A COMFORTABLE LEAD FOR THE REELECTION OF 
LAPENTTI AS PREFECT MAY ELIMINATE, OR AT LEAST REDUCE, 
ACCUSATIONS OF ELECTORAL FRAUD THAT MANY IN GUAYAS 
BELIEVE PLAYED A CONSIDERABLE ROLE IN THE DEFEAT OF 
HUMBERTO MATA WHEN HE RAN AGAINST LAPENTTI IN THE LAST 
ELECTION. THE OAS PLANS TO FIELD ELECTION OBSERVERS IN 
GUAYAS TO MONITOR THE USE OF ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES. 
 
HERBERT