US embassy cable - 04PHNOMPENH1578

C O N F I D E N T I A L  PHNOM PENH 001578 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, CB 
SUBJECT: KING SIHANOUK ANNOUNCES "RETIREMENT" 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ray.  Reason: 1.4 (b) (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  In a message from Beijing, King Sihanouk 
announced October 6 his desire to retire due to his ill 
health.  His message referred to a letter from PM Hun Sen and 
Prince Ranariddh endorsing as his successor Prince Sihamoni, 
son of Sihanouk and Queen Monineath.  On October 7, he 
instructed acting Head of State Chea Sim not to refer any 
decisions to him as he was retired as of that date. 
Opposition leader Sam Rainsy told the Ambassador that Prince 
Ranariddh had made veiled threats to him in the National 
Assembly October 7, blaming him for King Sihanouk's actions. 
Rainsy had sent a letter to the King a day earlier requesting 
that the King not return to Cambodia as scheduled on October 
7 because the government would organize demonstrations 
against the King.  Rainsy said he was concerned about a 
"coup", but that he did not feel personally threatened.  The 
royalist FUNCINPEC party is taking the King's actions 
seriously, although a senior FUNCINPEC leader suggested that 
Ranariddh was fed up with Rainsy and was "out to get him." 
Ranariddh suggested that it might be possible to get the King 
to change his mind; A CPP official agreed.  Given Sihanouk's 
track record over the years of threatening to leave the 
stage, but always coming back for an encore, we are somewhat 
skeptical of his determination this time.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) In a message from Beijing dated October 6, King 
Sihanouk requested that be allowed to retire.  He said that 
he was ill with a new stomach ailment and that he was 
"physically and intellectually weak." His message referred to 
a September 4 letter to him from PM Hun Sen and National 
Assembly President Prince Ranariddh endorsing Prince Norodom 
Sihamoni as his successor, but noted that ultimately it is up 
to the Royal Throne Council to select a successor. In an 
October 7 message the King requested that acting Head of 
State Chea Sim not refer any decisions to him, as he was 
retired as of this date. 
 
3.  (C) On October 7, Opposition leader Sam Rainsy asked to 
see the Ambassador urgently.  Rainsy told the Ambassador that 
in the morning session of the National Assembly Ranariddh had 
made veiled threats against him, suggesting that he was 
responsible for the King's "abdication" because of his letter 
to the King.  Rainsy's letter the previous day asked the King 
to delay his scheduled October 7 return to Cambodia because, 
Rainsy claimed, a reliable source had informed Rainsy that 
there would be government-organized demonstrations against 
the King upon his arrival. The King subsequently delayed his 
return to Cambodia.  Rainsy claimed that Ranariddh said the 
situation could get out of control and that Ranariddh 
commented that politicians should have been careful as their 
actions could have serious consequences.  However, a senior 
FUNCINPEC official told us that he believed Rainsy had made 
up the story about demonstrations against the King on his 
arrival. 
 
4.  (C) Rainsy said he "could not exclude the possibility of 
a coup," although he did not say who would carry out this 
coup, except to suggest that it could consolidate power in 
one man's hands.  Rainsy said that he did not feel in 
personal danger at the moment, but that the situation could 
deteriorate.  The Ambassador urged Rainsy to take steps to 
remove himself from danger if he felt threatened.  He also 
urged that all parties remain calm and peaceful.  The SRP 
issued a statement later in the day calling for calm.  PM Hun 
Sen left Phnom Penh today for Hanoi to attend the ASEM. 
 
5.  (C) Officials in the royalist FUNCINPEC party are taking 
the King's resignation/abdication seriously, although so far 
most of the evidence confirming that it is real ultimately 
leads back to Prince Ranariddh.  Deputy Prime Minister Lu Lay 
Sreng, an influential FUNCINPEC leader, told the Ambassador 
October 7 that he did not expect any violence, but that he 
believed both Ranariddh and Hun Sen are "fed up" with Sam 
Rainsy and are "out to get him."  (Note: Ranariddh and Sam 
Rainsy are involved in messy counter-suits, Ranariddh's 
alleging libel and Rainsy's alleging that Ranariddh tried to 
have him killed.  Ranariddh has threatened to have Rainsy's 
parliamentary immunity lifted so he can be prosecuted.) 
 
6.  (C) Ranariddh suggested that it might be possible to get 
the King to reverse his decision.  He commented at the 
National Assembly that the King might change his mind in a 
day or two.  He later said parliamentarians would sign a 
petition asking the King to stay on.  The Director of the CPP 
cabinet, Thep Ngorn, commented to us that the best course of 
action would be for the two coalition parties to convince the 
King to change his mind, as he has done in the past. 
 
7.  (C) In terms of succession, if the King's decision holds, 
the nine-member Royal Throne Council has the Constitutional 
authority to decide the successor.  However, the procedures 
for doing so have not been adopted by the National Assembly. 
If the issue were decided by a vote, PM Hun Sen would hold 
the tie-breaking vote if he and Ranariddh disagree on who it 
should be.  By our count four of the members are loyal to Hun 
Sen and four are loyal to Ranariddh, including Ranariddh 
himself, who is a member based on his Presidency of the 
National Assembly.  Prince Sihamoni has been the King's 
choice for some time and Ranariddh has endorsed him, as did 
Hun Sen in the September 4 letter released by Sihanouk. 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  Given Sihanouk's track record of threats to 
resign, which extend back decades, we regard these most 
recent actions with some skepticism.  However, many 
Cambodians appear to be taking Sihanouk's statements 
seriously.  It is quite possible that a series of entreaties 
from political actors will lead Sihanouk to reconsider, or 
that he intended his messages to create an outpouring of 
support from the Cambodian people that would "force" him to 
stay on the throne.  It is also possible that Ranariddh has 
been using the King's statements as a weapon to attack Sam 
Rainsy with whom he has long-standing animosity.  We will see 
how this plays out in coming days. 
 
Ray