US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT3504

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: MOPS, MARR, ASEC, PREL, PTER, IZ, KU 
SUBJECT: CENTCOM COMMANDER BRIEFS KUWAITI MINISTER OF AMIRI 
DIWAN 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron reason 1.4(a), (d) 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: On October 6, CENTCOM Commander General John 
Abizaid met with the Kuwait Minister of the Amiri Diwan, 
Nasser Mohammed Al Sabah.  During a relaxed and friendly 
conversation lasting over an hour, General Abizaid described 
the situation in Iraq and efforts by coalition forces to 
assist the Iraqis in providing stability before January 
elections.  The Minister, a senior member of the Sabah family 
with a background in Iranian affairs, was confident that the 
situation in Iraq would improve with time and was supportive 
of U.S. efforts.  Gen. Abizaid also used the meeting to 
express U.S. appreciation for continued Kuwaiti support of 
Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Accompanied by Ambassador LeBaron, General Abizaid met 
with the Minister of the Amiri Diwan, Shaykh Nasser Mohammed 
Al Sabah.  Also present was Kuwaiti Chief of Staff General 
Fahed, other Kuwaiti officials, Gen. Abizaid's senior staff, 
Gen. Speer, and Kuwait OMC/K Chief Gen. Mulholland.  The 
conversation centered on the current and future security 
situation in Iraq.  Starting with the centers of insurgency, 
Abizaid gave an extensive overview of Coalition plans to 
assist Iraqi forces in restoring order to Falluja, Ramadi, 
and parts of Baghdad, notably Sadr City.  Using the upcoming 
Iraqi elections as his touchstone, Abizaid stated that the 
security situation should improve after January and stabilize 
between January and June.  The problem with fighting the 
insurgency, he said, is twofold: remnants of the Ba'ath Party 
are still active and are financing the insurgents from Syria, 
and the Sunnis have not yet begun to participate in the new 
government and are allowing the insurgents to be their voice 
when they should be fighting against them. 
 
3. (U) Abizaid stressed that he and his commanders were 
confident that stability and democracy would eventually 
prevail.  Shaykh Nasser agreed that the insurgency would end 
and democracy would follow.  He added that the GOK had been 
impressed by Iraqi PM Allawi's level of confidence in his 
ability to improve the situation before the elections. 
Nasser also expressed understanding of the task facing the 
Iraqi people in undoing 34 years of Saddam's influence and 
likened it to the situation in North Korea when Kim Il Sung 
died.  Stating that the Iraqis are our neighbor and our 
Muslim brothers, Nasser said that Kuwait must help them gain 
freedom from misery and achieve democracy.  Let them take 
care of themselves, and they would rebound in time, he added. 
 
 
Syria and Iran's Interests 
-------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Shaykh Nasser then asked numerous questions on Iraq's 
future military capabilities and other aspects of the 
security situation.  General Abizaid stated that he felt the 
situation would improve once the elections were over and the 
country settled down.  On the insurgency front, Abizaid 
distinguished between the foreign fighters, who he numbered 
as less than one thousand in Iraq, and the Iraqi Baathist 
remnants.  According to Abizaid, Zarqawi's group is trying to 
start a civil war pitting Shi'a against Sunni while the 
Syrians are helping remnants of the Ba'ath party, and the 
Iranians are interfering by supporting Muqtadr Al Sadr. 
Abizaid said that it is a dangerous game that Syria and Iran 
are playing inside Iraq.  In response to a question by 
Nasser, Abizaid distinguished between Syrian President Bashir 
Al Asad and the hard-liners in his government who were 
appointed by his father.  The situation in Syria is 
complicated, said Abizaid, but the Syrians do not deny that 
there is money flowing into Iraq. 
 
5. (C)  On Iran, Nasser opined that it was in Iran's interest 
that Iraq be stable but that the only true Shi'a leader is 
Muhammed Baqr Al Hakim.  He said that Al-Sistani and Al-Sadr 
are not real Iraqis, as they were born in Iran, and he 
posited that the Sunnis are scared of having a Shi'a state 
and that is one reason there are foreign fighters from Sunni 
majority countries taking part in the insurgency. 
 
6. (C) General Abizaid stressed his belief that if the Iraqi 
Sunni population did not soon become part of the solution in 
stabilizing Iraq, then they would be considered part of the 
problem and be unable to achieve a political base in the 
future.  In his view, those who took part in attacks against 
civilians would never be forgiven by Iraqis and they would 
never have a place in Iraq's future.  The Sunnis must help 
get rid of Zarqawi before they can be part of a new Iraq. 
 
Iraqi Security Forces 
--------------------- 
7. (C) On Iraq's future military capability, Abizaid told 
Nasser that Coalition forces would be present until stability 
is established across three areas of insurgency: Al Amarrah 
in the south, the area near Mosul in the north, and various 
areas in central Iraq.  Iraqi forces will number 200,000 by 
June 2005, to include the regular Army and a Commando unit. 
He said that the Army was plagued by poor leadership and 
Iraq's political leaders are considering reaching out to 
former military officers in order to find experienced but 
loyal military leaders.  Also, the police forces were weak 
and corrupt and also suffer from poor leadership.   The 
Coalition has trained and equipped 100,000 policemen.  After 
the January elections, Abizaid foresaw a drop in Coalition 
troop levels needed to maintain stability.  Gen. Abizaid 
summed up his overall assessment as confident, but realistic 
about the challenges ahead in Iraq. 
 
Other Iraq Issues 
----------------- 
 
8. (C) In answer to Shaykh Nasser's question, he said that 
the airports in Basra and Mosul could be moved to Iraqi 
control immediately if Iraqi air traffic controllers could be 
found.  He noted that Iraqis already are operating the 
civilian part of the Baghdad airport now.  The overall Iraqi 
infrastructure was in much poorer shape than the U.S. 
expected and it will take time to construct what didn't 
exist, as opposed to reconstructing existing facilities.  It 
appeared that Saddam had focused resources only on his own 
palaces and on the road system, in order to be able to move 
troops quickly to quell unrest. 
 
9. (C) Shaykh Nasser asked about the timetable for Saddam's 
trial and was told Iraqi leaders were saying that it would 
most likely take place after the elections in January. 
Stability and the fight against those who would keep Iraq 
volatile come first.  Abizaid closed by saying that the 
bilateral military relationship  was good and that together 
we will make it better. 
 
Planning for Kuwaiti Forces 
--------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Gen. Abizaid told Shaykh Nasser that the U.S. looked 
forward to working with Kuwait as it re-shaped its own forces 
to meet current and future challenges.  He stressed Kuwait's 
strategic importance due to its location, influence, and 
stability. 
LeBaron