US embassy cable - 01KUWAIT3338

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003338 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/21 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, AF, KU 
SUBJECT:  AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - AND UBL SPEECH 
 
REF:  A. STATE 192153   B. STATE 190913 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RICHARD H. JONES, 
REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (S) USAMA BIN LADEN'S NOVEMBER 3 STATEMENT WAS 
THE SPEECH OF A DESPERATE MAN DISAPPOINTED THAT 
HIS PREVIOUS STATEMENTS HAD NOT GENERATED GREATER 
SUPPORT IN THE MUSLIM WORLD, KUWAIT MFA 
UNDERSECRETARY AL-JARALLAH TOLD THE AMBASSADOR 
NOVEMBER 4.  AL-JARALLAH DID NOT EXPRESS CONCERN 
ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF MILITARY OPERATIONS 
CONTINUING DURING RAMADAN, NOTING THAT THE 
AFGHANIS THEMSELVES HAD NOT RESPECTED RAMADAN 
WHEN FIGHTING AMONG THEMSELVES.  HE REAFFIRMED 
KUWAITI - AND GCC - SUPPORT FOR REACHING OUR 
COMMON GOAL -- THE END FOR THE TALABAN, UBL, AND 
AL-QAIDA. 
 
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AFGHANISTAN: GCC COUNTRIES STAND WITH US 
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2. (S) THE AMBASSADOR DREW EXTENSIVELY FROM REF A 
IN A DISCUSSION ON AFGHANISTAN NOVEMBER 4 WITH 
MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS UNDERSECRETARY KHALID 
AL-JARALLAH.  AL-JARALLAH, EXPRESSING 
APPRECIATION FOR THE BRIEFING, AGREED THAT THE 
SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN PRESENTED DIFFICULT 
CHALLENGES.  IT POSED A THREAT NOT ONLY FOR 
WESTERN COUNTRIES, HE SAID, BUT ALSO COUNTRIES IN 
THIS REGION.  THE COUNTRIES OF THE GCC, HE ADDED, 
ARE READY TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE U.S., THE 
U.K., AND THE COALITION TO REACH OUR COMMON GOAL 
- THE END FOR THE TALABAN, USAMA BIN LADEN, AND 
AL-QAIDA. 
 
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UBL SPEECH: SIGN OF DESPERATION 
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3. (S) AL-JARALLAH RAISED THE SPEECH BY USAMA BIN 
LADEN BROADCAST THE EVENING BEFORE. IT WAS A VERY 
STRANGE SPEECH, HE SAID.  IN HIS ASSESSMENT, IT 
WAS A SPEECH OF A DESPERATE MAN.  WHEN UBL USED 
THE EXPRESSION "WA ISLAMA" (AN EXPRESSION USED BY 
MUSLIMS NEEDING HELP IN TOUGH CIRCUMSTANCES), IT 
INDICATED THAT HE WAS FEELING DEEPLY DEPRESSED. 
 
4. (S) ELABORATING, AL-JARALLAH SAID THAT HE 
THOUGHT UBL HAD EXPECTED THAT HIS FIRST SPEECH 
AFTER THE BOMBING BEGAN (WITH AL-QAIDA SPOKESMAN 
BU GAITH AT HIS SIDE) WOULD CREATE A STRONG 
SPIRIT OF SUPPORT IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD.  IN FACT, 
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE REACTION.  THERE HAVE 
BEEN SOME DEMONSTRATIONS IN PAKISTAN, BUT THEY 
HAVE BEEN SMALLER THAN EXPECTED AND APPARENTLY 
DECREASING, AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POPULAR 
EXPRESSIONS OF SUPPORT IN PLACES LIKE INDONESIA. 
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE REACTION HAS BEEN MINIMAL. 
BECAUSE OF THIS, UBL IS DISAPPOINTED AND 
DESPERATE, AL-JARALLAH SAID. 
 
5. (S) THE AMBASSADOR THANKED AL-JARALLAH FOR HIS 
INSIGHT AND NOTED THAT PUBLIC STATEMENTS BY 
PROMINENT KUWAITIS -- EITHER FROM INSIDE THE 
GOVERNMENT, THE EDUCATION AND RELIGIOUS 
ESTABLISHMENTS, OR THE PRIVATE SECTOR -- REFUTING 
UBL'S ALLEGATIONS WOULD BE EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN 
OUR EFFORTS TO REFUTE UBL PROPAGANDA. 
 
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RAMADAN OPERATIONS: KUWAIT NOT CONCERNED 
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5. (S) AL-JARALLAH RESPONDED CALMLY TO THE POINT 
REGARDING THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MILITARY 
CAMPAIGN WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH RAMADAN. HE DID 
NOT THINK THIS SHOULD BE A SOURCE OF UNDUE 
CONCERN. OBSERVING THAT SOME 30,000 AFGHANIS HAD 
DIED IN AFGHAN INTERNAL FIGHTING, HE NOTED THAT 
THE AFGHANIS HAD NOT RESPECTED RAMADAN WHEN THEY 
WERE FIGHTING AMONG THEMSELVES. 
 
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NORTHERN ALLIANCE READY TO MOVE? 
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6.  (S) AL-JARALLAH NOTED NEWS REPORTS OF B-52 
BOMBING NEAR NORTHERN ALLIANCE FRONT LINES OVER 
THE PAST TWO-THREE DAYS, AND THOUGHT THERE MIGHT 
BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE WOULD 
BE ABLE TO MOVE FORWARD SOON AND "ACHIEVE 
SOMETHING."  THE AMBASSADOR AGREED RECENT NEWS 
REPORTS WERE MORE ENCOURAGING BUT STRESSED IT WAS 
TOO SOON TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. 
 
JONES