US embassy cable - 04QUITO2702

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002702 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: MAYOR'S RACE A TOSS-UP IN ECUADOR'S THIRD CITY 
 
 
1.  Summary.  The Cuenca mayoral race is too close to call 
between two strong candidates, Fernando Cordero (New 
City-Pachakutik alliance), the incumbent, and Marcelo Cabrera 
(Democratic Left), recently the provincial prefect of Azuay. 
Meanwhile, Xavier Munoz, of Popular Democracy is the clear 
front-runner for prefect of Azuay.  The mayoral race in 
Ecuador's third largest city is interesting because it pits 
two popular incumbents against each other.  End Summary. 
 
Background Information 
---------------------- 
 
2.  PolOff visited Cuenca, provincial capital of Azuay 
province September 30-October 1 for meetings with local 
election officials, party officials and an NGO (independent 
electoral observer).  Cuenca, a charming town with 
distinguished colonial architecture best known for the Panama 
hats woven there, is also the third largest city in Ecuador, 
located in the southern Sierra region.  Azuay province has a 
serious out-migration problem with many towns depopulated of 
working aged men who have emigrated to the US and Spain. 
Azuay has a total of 447,587 eligible voters (5.2% of the 
national total) who will vote on October 17 to select a 
provincial prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent), 5 provincial 
councilors, 15 mayors, 64 municipal councilors and 59 rural 
councils.  Electoral officials predicted 30% absenteeism on 
election day in Azuay province. 
 
Mayoral Race Close 
------------------ 
 
3.  The mayoral race is too close to call between the 
incumbent, Fernando Cordero of the New City party (allied 
with Pachakutik) and Marcelo Cabrera, of the Democratic Left 
(ID) party.  Cabrera has served as Prefect of Azuay Province 
for the last 8 years.  Electoral watchdog NGO Citizens 
Participation charged both candidates with posting signs on 
public works, a violation of campaign rules.  In response, 
Cordero's campaign coordinator, Gabriel Ledesma, blamed 
undisciplined supporters for the infraction.  Cabrera 
subsequently took down his signs. 
 
4.  New City campaign coordinator Gabriel Ledesma told PolOff 
that Ecuador had suffered through 25 years of "party-ocracy." 
 Ledesma described New City as different in that it does not 
make promises and had no party doctrine.  In fact, New City 
is not a party, but a local movement which has allied with 
the Pachakutik party.  While the Democratic Left accuses 
Cordero of concentrating power in himself, Ledesma pointed 
out that Cordero had passed 173 ordinances in cooperation 
with the city council (showing he could work with others) 
versus one ordinance passed by Prefect Cabrera.  Ledesma 
accused Cabrera of corruption in contracts for public works. 
 
5.  Orlando Albornoz, campaign manager of the ID in Cuenca, 
emphasized that the ID is an ideologically-based party and as 
eager to pronounce on local and national issues.  He argued 
that without the structure of a party, politicians are not 
accountable for their actions.  Albornoz echoed Munoz' public 
statements in favor of greater decentralization of taxing 
authority.  Azuay province needs more power to directly 
administer projects, such as new roads, he said.  Albornoz 
said Ecuador should work with international organizations 
such as the World Bank and Inter-American Bank to fund 
development projects.  He also felt the US should look to 
Latin America first for allies.  Albornoz worried that 
Ecuadorian markets would be invaded by American products 
should an FTA be signed. 
 
6.  There are also two well-respected female candidates for 
mayor, Susana Gonzalez, a former President of Congress (of 
the For Cuenca Party) and Angelica Garcia of President 
Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party).  The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal requires parties to allocate at least 40% of its 
candidate lists to women.  There are no female candidates for 
Prefect of Azuay. 
 
Munoz the Favorite in Prefect Race 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  Xavier Munoz (Popular Democracy Party), a former mayor, 
prefect and Congressman, stood out as the clear favorite in 
the race for Prefect of Azuay province.  Paul Carrasco of the 
Democratic Left Party (ID) and Paul Granda of the New 
City-Pachakutik alliance trailed Munoz in the polls.  PolOff 
attended a forum of the candidates for prefect organized by 
Citizens Participation.  All but Carrasco attended.  A key 
theme all candidates mentioned was the need for a better 
highway system in Azuay province.  Granda argued a better 
road system was linked with improvements in the economy 
health, education and tourism.  Granda also felt these 
improvements could stem the serious migration problem in 
Azuay province.  There were no other concrete solutions to 
migration presented.  Munoz instead proposed Congressional 
reforms to allow local governments to make use of income 
taxes to increase municipal autonomy from the central 
government. 
Citizen Participation Will Monitor Elections 
-------------------------------------------- 
8.  Citizens Participation (PC) regional coordinator told 
PolOff that PC will have 500 volunteers monitoring elections 
on October 17.  These volunteers are aged 16-18 and represent 
ten public and private schools.  On October 2, a practice 
session was held for the volunteers.  Rodas touted PC's 
sponsorship of the candidate forums as an important service 
to voters.  He described the meetings as civil, with no 
personal attacks.  (PolOff confirmed this at the session she 
attended.)  The forums have good turnout and were broadcast 
on the radio.  Previously, prefect candidate Munoz had been 
attacked for his relationship with unpopular former President 
Mahuad. 
 
Electronic Vote to be Tested 
---------------------------- 
 
9.  The town of Totoracocha, with 12,724 eligible voters, has 
received 80 electronic voting booths, lent to the GoE by the 
Government of Brazil.  Thirty-seven of the machines will be 
used for voters to practice and forty-three will be used for 
voting on election day.  Each machine will be used by about 
300 people.  (Voting booths are divided by gender; 
Totoracocha has 20 male booths and 23 female booths.)  Voters 
will not be allowed to vote electronically unless they have a 
certificate proving that they have received prior training. 
According to Dr. Jorge Moreno, President of the Provincial 
Electoral Tribunal, as of September 30, 7,000 of the eligible 
voters had received the necessary training.  From October 
1-15, additional training sessions will be offered.  Voters 
will also be able to practice on 30 machines on election day. 
 The Provincial Electoral Tribunal has been handing out 
flyers door-to-door and using cars with loudspeakers to 
announce the practice days and locations. 
 
10.  According to Moreno, minor parties such as New City and 
For Cuenca have complained to the Provincial Electoral 
Tribunal that voters can only see the majority party logos on 
the electronic screen.  Minority parties fear this could 
influence voters on election day.  Ledesma said that this 
omission in the test voting machines could cause confusion on 
election day, putting the votes of approximately 5% of Azuay 
voters into question.  Albornoz also feared electronic voting 
could permit fraud through electronic manipulation.  Post 
expects the OAS to field a team of electoral observers to the 
province. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  The election in Cuenca is interesting because it pits 
two popular incumbents - one from a major established party 
(ID) and one running against what established parties 
represent.  A Cordero win would reflect growing public 
disenchantment with politics as usual.  Conversely, a Cabrera 
win would reinforce the ID's strength in the province and 
nationally. 
KENNEY