US embassy cable - 01STATE192153

S E C R E T STATE 192153 
 
BUDAPEST PASS BELGRADE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/21 
TAGS: PREL, AF, PTER 
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS 
 
REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL) AND PREVIOUS, (B)ISLAMABAD 
5601 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY DONALD CAMP DEPUTY  ASSISTANT SECRETARY 
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (U)  THIS TELEGRAM HAS BEEN CLEARED BY M/P (SEP). 
 
2.  (S) POSTS SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN DISCUSSIONS 
WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON THE FUTURE 
OF AFGHANISTAN.  THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN IS FLUID. 
WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE ASK POSTS TO REFRAIN FROM 
MAKING UNEQUIVOCAL STATEMENTS ABOUT OUR POLICIES WITH 
REGARD TO AFGHANISTAN.  DEPARTMENT WILL PROVIDE ALDAC 
UPDATES AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE 
TALKING POINTS AS NON-PAPERS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS.  POSTS 
SHOULD REFER QUESTIONS REGARDING CONTACTS WITH 
REPRESENTATIVES OF AFGHAN FACTIONS, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN 
ALLIANCE (NA-UNITED FRONT) TO SA/PAB.  DEALING WITH THESE 
GROUPS IS BEING HANDLED VERY CAREFULLY BY WASHINGTON TO 
AVOID SENDING SIGNALS WHICH MIGHT BE MISINTERPRETED OR 
CONVEYING MIXED MESSAGES.  WE WOULD ALSO APPRECIATE 
REPORTING ON SUBSTANTIVE RESPONSES FROM HOST GOVERNMENTS. 
NOTE:  THIS CABLE DOES NOT ADDRESS ON-GOING INTELLIGENCE 
OR MILITARY OPERATIONS. 
 
3.  (SBU) TALKING POINTS 
 
FIGHTING TERRORISM 
------------------ 
 
--OUR GOAL IS TO ROOT OUT AND DESTROY THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK 
AND ENSURE THAT AFGHANISTAN WILL NEVER AGAIN BE A BASE FOR 
TERRORIST OPERATIONS.  NOR DO WE WANT TO SEE AN 
AFGHANISTAN THAT PRODUCES DRUGS, CREATES MILLIONS OF 
REFUGEES, OR CONTRIBUTES TO REGIONAL INSTABILITY. 
 
--WE ARE NOT TARGETING ISLAM OR THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN, 
BUT WE ARE TARGETING THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK AND THE TALIBAN 
LEADERSHIP.  (NOTE: POSTS MAY ELABORATE ON THIS IMPORTANT 
POINT FROM PUBLIC DIPLOMACY TALKING POINTS.) 
 
--OUR MILITARY CAMPAIGN IS GEARED AT DESTROYING TALIBAN 
MILITARY CAPABILITY AND AL-QAIDA OPERATIONS THROUGH AN AIR 
AND TARGETED GROUND CAMPAIGN.  WE ARE COMMITTED FOR AS 
LONG AS IS NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH OUR OBJECTIVES. 
 
--THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE CLEAR THAT THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST 
TERRORISM IS A SUSTAINED CAMPAIGN THAT WILL OUTLAST THE 
IMMEDIATE EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN, BUT OUR IMMEDIATE FOCUS 
IS THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK AND ITS BASE IN AFGHANISTAN. 
 
--THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT OUR MILITARY CAMPAIGN 
WILL HAVE TO BE CONDUCTED DURING THE MONTH OF RAMADAN IN 
ORDER TO ENSURE THAT USAMA BIN LADEN AND HIS SUPPORTERS DO 
NOT STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS.  WE ASK YOUR UNDERSTANDING 
IN THIS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO TO GREAT LENGTHS TO 
ENSURE THAT MILITARY ACTIONS DO NOT IMPACT INNOCENT 
CIVILIANS. 
 
POST-TALIBAN AFGHANISTAN 
------------------------ 
 
--U.S. POLICY REGARDING AFGHANISTAN HAS FOUR BASIC 
ELEMENTS: ERADICATION OF TERRORISM, HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE AND RECONSTRUCTION, REGIONAL STABILITY, AND A 
PEACEFUL AFGHANISTAN. 
 
--ELIMINATING BIN LADEN AND HIS ASSOCIATES FROM 
AFGHANISTAN IS ONLY THE FIRST STEP OF THE PROCESS. 
OUSTING THE TALIBAN LEADERSHIP AND HELPING A BROAD-BASED, 
REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT TO FORM IS ALSO A HIGH PRIORITY. 
NEITHER OF THESE TASKS WILL BE EASY, PARTICULARLY GIVEN 
THE ETHNIC AND REGIONAL DIVISIONS WITHIN AFGHANISTAN AND 
THE DIFFICULTIES OF COALITION-BUILDING. 
 
--WE DO NOT WANT TO CHOOSE WHO RULES AFGHANISTAN, BUT WE 
WILL ASSIST THOSE WHO SEEK A PEACEFUL AFGHANISTAN FREE OF 
TERRORISM AND ADDRESSING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC NEEDS OF ITS 
PEOPLE. 
 
--WE BELIEVE THAT ALL LEGITIMATE AFGHAN GROUPS, INCLUDING 
THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE, ROME GROUP BASED AROUND EX-KING 
ZAHIR SHAH, AND SOUTHERN PASHTUNS, MUST PLAY A ROLE IN A 
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT.  IN THE FUTURE AFGHANISTAN, 
TALIBAN RANK AND FILE BELOW THE LEADERSHIP LEVEL NEED TO 
INTEGRATE PEACEFULLY IN A CIVIL SOCIETY. 
 
--WE ARE IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING IN ROME 
AND OTHER INDEPENDENT AFGHANS AROUND THE WORLD.  WE 
WELCOME THE FORMER KINGS INITIATIVE TO UNITE THE ROME 
GROUP, OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS AND THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE UNDER 
ONE UMBRELLA -- THE SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL (SNC)  - 
COMMITTED TO PROVIDING A POLITICAL ALTERNATIVE TO THE 
TALIBAN. 
 
--THIS EFFORT IS AIMED AT LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A 
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT THAT REPRESENTS THE INTERESTS OF 
ALL ETHNIC AND REGIONAL GROUPS AND REFLECTS THE WISHES OF 
THE AFGHAN PEOPLE.  THE GOVERNMENT ENVISIONED BY THE 
SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL WILL RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END 
TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW INTERNATIONALLY ACCEPTED NORMS OF 
BEHAVIOR. 
 
--WE HAVE URGED PLAYERS IN ROME AND ELSEWHERE TO 
ACCELERATE THE PLAN TO CONVENE A SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL, 
WHILE APPEALING TO OTHER AFGHAN PARTIES TO SUPPORT THE 
PROCESS. 
 
--WE WELCOME THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FORMER KING AND THE 
NORTHERN ALLIANCE TO WORK WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE 
SUPREME COUNCIL. 
 
--WE ARE AWARE OF THE PAST HISTORY ABUSE IN AFGHANISTAN 
INCLUDING DURING THE EARLY 1990'S.  WE CANNOT CONDONE A 
REPETITION OF THESE ABUSES OR ATTEMPTS TO RULE AFGHANISTAN 
THAT EXCLUDES ANY ETHNIC GROUPS.  WE WANT AN AFGHANISTAN 
THAT DOES NOT THREATEN OR IS THREATENED BY ITS NEIGHBORS. 
 
--PUTTING TOGETHER A POLITICAL EQUATION IS TIME-CONSUMING, 
BUT SPEED IS OF THE ESSENCE.  A POWER VACUUM COULD DEVELOP 
IN KABUL AND CITIES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AT ANY TIME. 
ALTHOUGH MILITARY ACTIVITY IS STILL UNDERWAY, PLANNING AND 
INITIAL STEPS MUST BEGIN NOW TO COMPLEMENT OUR MILITARY 
AND HUMANITARIAN OBJECTIVES.  A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE 
TALIBAN COULD HELP ENCOURAGE SUPPORTERS OF THE TALIBAN TO 
DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE REGIME. 
 
--SECURITY OF LIBERATED AREAS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN. 
WHILE IT IS DESIRABLE THAT THE AFGHANS DEVELOP THEIR OWN 
SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE, ONE ALTERNATIVE THAT WE ARE 
WEIGHING IS AN INTERNATIONAL ARMED FORCE TO PROVIDE 
SECURITY, PARTICULARLY IN KABUL. 
 
--WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE UN AND OTHER INTERESTED 
NATIONS TO EXPLORE OPTIONS FOR AN EFFECTIVE SECURITY 
ARRANGEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN.  WE WELCOME YOUR VIEWS ON THIS 
QUESTION. 
 
ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
------------------------------- 
 
--A SUSTAINED EFFORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL 
BE NEEDED TO ENSURE AFGHANISTANS REHABILITATION AND 
FORWARD MOMENTUM.  WE WILL WORK TO REDOUBLE THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYS PAST EFFORTS TO STABILIZE 
AFGHANISTAN, BUT ULTIMATELY THE AFGHAN PEOPLE THEMSELVES 
MUST MAKE THE IMPORTANT DECISIONS CONCERNING THEIR FUTURE. 
 
--WE WELCOME UN SRSG LAKHDAR BRAHIMIS LEAD ROLE IN THIS 
EFFORT AND URGE ALL UN MEMBERS TO ACTIVELY SUPPORT HIS 
MISSION. 
 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AND ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
--WE ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE PLIGHT OF THE AFGHAN 
PEOPLE.  DECADES OF CONFLICT, THREE YEARS OF DROUGHT, AND 
TALIBAN ABUSE AND MISMANAGEMENT, INCLUDING THEIR 
PROFITEERING FROM ILLICIT OPIUM CULTIVATION AND 
TRAFFICKING, HAVE BROUGHT AFGHANISTAN TO HUMANITARIAN 
DISASTER. 
 
--WE WILL WORK WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEVELOP 
A LONG-TERM ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION PLAN FOR A POST- 
CONFLICT AFGHANISTAN.  WE ANTICIPATE A HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE DONORS CONFERENCE.  THE FOCUS OF THESE EFFORTS 
WILL BE QUICK-IMPACT PROJECTS TO ACHIEVE IMMEDIATE 
IMPROVEMENTS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, INCLUDING 
RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS. 
 
--OUR HIGHEST IMMEDIATE PRIORITY IS TO SUPPORT EFFORTS TO 
DELIVER FOOD AND OTHER RELIEF INSIDE AFGHANISTAN, EVEN AS 
MILITARY OPERATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE. 
 
--DELIVERIES CONTINUE INTO AFGHANISTAN DESPITE THE 
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TALIBAN 
INTERFERENCE/LOOTING.  IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT THE 
ASSISTANCE REACH NEEDY AFGHANS BEFORE THE ONSET OF WINTER 
IN A FEW WEEKS. 
 
--THE U.S. HAS BEEN THE LARGEST DONOR OF HUMANITARIAN 
RELIEF FOR AFGHANISTAN, HAVING PROVIDED CLOSE TO $1 
BILLION IN ASSISTANCE OVER RECENT YEARS.  THE PRESIDENT 
RECENTLY ANNOUNCED AN ADDITIONAL $320 MILLION.  AT THE 
OCTOBER 5 DONORS CONFERENCE IN GENEVA, THERE WERE PLEDGES 
MADE BY ALL COUNTRIES FOR $736 MILLION.  ADDITIONAL 
PLEDGES CONTINUE TO COME IN ON A DAILY BASIS.  UN AGENCIES 
NEED CASH NOW.  IT IS IMPORTANT FOR COUNTRIES TO MAKE GOOD 
ON PLEDGES WITH QUICK DISBURSEMENTS. 
 
--DOD AIRDROPS ARE ONLY ONE PART OF OUR ASSISTANCE AND ARE 
TARGETED AT HARD-TO-REACH AREAS.  WITH WINTER APPROACHING, 
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF AIRLIFTS (NOT 
AIRDROPS) TO REACH THESE AREAS. 
 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
--WE WOULD WELCOME YOUR VIEWS ON THESE ISSUES, AND LOOK 
FORWARD TO A CONTINUING DIALOGUE WITH YOU. 
 
4. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
 
POWELL