US embassy cable - 04ACCRA1985

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001985 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: GH, PGOV, PHUM, PREL 
SUBJECT: GHANA GEARING UP FOR ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 (d and e). 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary:  With slightly over two months to go 
before Ghana's presidential and parliamentary elections, the 
two major political parties have launched their campaigns, 
published manifestos and announced their vice-presidential 
candidates. Other minor parties remain disorganized.  The 
pre-election mood is relatively calm, despite a few isolated 
incidents of violence. The primaries, which are still 
ongoing, have knocked out several incumbents, including two 
Ministers of State. The Electoral Commission (EC) had some 
difficulties with the voter registration and extended its 
'mopping up' registration exercise until September 30. 
Opposition contacts are frustrated with the alleged advantage 
the incumbent President has had in garnering media coverage, 
with the EC's problems in the registration process, and with 
its inability to respond convincingly to complaints.  The 
publication of the voter register in mid-October will be an 
important milestone in reinforcing (or further undermining) 
confidence in Ghana's election process. End summary. 
 
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FOUR IN THE RING 
---------------- 
 
2.  (U)  While candidates cannot submit their official 
nominations to the Electoral Commission until mid-October, at 
this point there are four declared presidential candidates: 
President John Kufuour of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), John 
Evans Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), 
Convention People's Party (CPP) leader George Aggudey, and 
Dr. Edward Mahama of the People's National Convention (PNC) 
party.  On October 1, the PNC joined with two other small 
parties, the Great Consolidated Popular Party (GCPP) and the 
Every Accountable Ghanain Living Everywhere (EGLE) party to 
form a "Grand Coalition" to support PNC presidential 
candidate Mahama.  On October 2, GCPP leader Dan Lartey 
argued he should be the presidential candidate instead of 
Mahama -- and the coalition fell apart.  Although discussions 
between the parties are ongoing, most observers are skeptical 
the coalition will come together with any strength. 
 
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RUNNING MATES DECLARED 
---------------------- 
 
3. (U)  On September 18, President Kufuor announced that he 
would retain as his running mate current Vice President, 
Alhaji Aliu Mahama. Mahama has been criticized as ineffective 
by some in the NPP, most prominently by Victor Newman, a 
founding member of the party.  Nonetheless, Mahama was 
apparently chosen again because, as a northern Muslim, he 
balances the ticket. 
 
4. (U)  On September 23, the opposition NDC officially 
launched its campaign and selected its own northern Muslim, 
Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni, as a running mate for its 
presidential candidate, John Atta Mills. Mumuni's selection 
is seen by some as a strategic move by the NDC to capitalize 
on party line divisions between the Andani and Abudu tribes 
in the north.  On September 28 Mumuni was in a car accident 
(he remains in the hospital) effectively removing him as a 
campaign player for the next few weeks. (See bios in paras 
13, 14). 
 
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INCUMBENTS FLAGGING: THE PRIMARIES CONTINUE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U)  Party members continue with the selection of 
parliamentary candidates through primary elections across the 
country's 230 constituencies. While many cabinet members won 
their primaries with ease, some incumbent Members of 
Parliament lost their candidacies, including two Ministers of 
State and several MPs with key positions in the ruling 
government. Senior Minister J.H. Mensah, MP for Sunyani East, 
faced a record five opponents and won his primary only after 
intervention by the President and party headquarters. 
 
6. (U)  Constituents from several constituencies have 
complained that senior NPP officials imposed candidates on 
local constituencies without primary elections. Over the past 
month, in a few instances in Greater Accra, NPP mobs 
physically assaulted regional party leaders to protest the 
imposition of candidates. 
 
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MANIFESTOS LAUNCHED 
------------------- 
 
7. (U)  On July 31, the NDC launched its manifesto for the 
2004 election. Entitled "A Better Ghana", the manifesto 
predictably directs considerable criticism against the NPP. 
The opening message from the party's founder, former 
President Jerry Rawlings, states that "President Kufuor and 
his NPP promised heaven but have landed Ghanaians in the 
burning flames of hell." In his opening remarks, Atta Mills 
promised that the NDC would "remove the current atmosphere of 
suspicion, mistrust, and marginalization of anyone who is 
assumed to be an ally of the present opposition." In its 
manifesto, the NDC acknowledges that global institutions such 
as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank cannot be 
"wished away" entirely, but it clearly urges Ghanaians to be 
more independent from the policy prescriptions of these 
organizations. On social, foreign, and regional policies, the 
NDC's platform does not differ considerably from the NPP's. 
 
8. (U)  On September 18, the NPP launched its own manifesto, 
entitled "So Far, So Very Good". The macroeconomic 
achievements of the NPP administration feature prominently. 
In contrast to the NDC, the NPP trumpets its successes with 
international donor institutions. The manifesto praises the 
Kufuor government's achievement in reaching HIPC completion 
point in 2004. It also underscores Ghana's selection as a 
Millennium Challenge Account prospect. The manifesto 
highlights Ghana's first-ever invitation to a G-8 meeting and 
President Kufuor's role in ECOWAS. It quotes British Prime 
Minister Tony Blair as saying in May 2004, "President Kufuor 
is a role model in the African continent and a blazing trail, 
who should be followed and emulated." 
 
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'MOPPING UP' COMPLETED 
---------------------- 
 
9. (U)  The Electoral Commission is still completing the 
voter registration process. It has finished scanning 
registration forms from all ten regions into a centralized 
database of voters. The EC initiated a 'mopping up' exercise 
September 3-7 to give all voters who registered during the 
initial registration an opportunity to obtain photo 
identification cards (which are required for voting). Faced 
with logistical challenges, the 'mop up' was extended until 
September 30. The EC has announced it would publish a 
provisional voter's register on October 12-17 for public 
scrutiny. 
 
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EXPECTATIONS OF A PEACEFUL ELECTION 
----------------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU)  Observers expect that elections will be generally 
peaceful, although there could be scattered incidents of 
violence.  The past month has been filled with events 
promoting peaceful elections, including a prayer meeting 
attended by visiting Nigerian President Obasanjo.  In a 
demonstration of support for the democratic process, the NPP 
and NDC invited all political parties to address their 
conventions. 
 
11.  (U)  Nonetheless, the selection of two northern Muslim 
vice presidential candidates from opposing clans has the 
potential to fan communal friction in the north.  In the 
northern region of Dagbon, the 2002 murder of the Ya-Na 
Yakubu Andani (king) remains a central and highly divisive 
issue. The NDC has leveraged this issue to disadvantage the 
NPP within the Dagbon traditional area, which encompasses 
twelve constituencies.  Questions still remain about the 
government's role during the violent clashes in 2002 and its 
inability to find the murderers of the king and forty other 
victims. The Andanis, who support the NDC, continue to accuse 
the government of playing a central role in the murders. The 
Abudus, who support the NPP, deny the allegations.  According 
to radio reports, on October 3, NPP youth in Yendi (the 
traditional capital of Dagbon) attacked NDC supporters and 
set fire to a local chief's palace, resulting in some 
injuries.  The situation in the Dagbon traditional area is 
generally volatile and there could be other incidents of 
small-scale violence in the heat of the election. 
 
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SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT FAIRNESS 
----------------------------- 
 
12.  (C)  At an October 4 pre-election lunch for members of 
civil society, hosted by Charge,  several NGO contacts voiced 
concerns about fairness in the election campaigns.  Like our 
small party contacts, they believe the NPP is using its 
incumbency to garner disproportionate media coverage and 
access to state resources for electoral benefit (although 
they concede some of this is inevitable with an incumbent 
candidate).  Reverend Fred Deegbe, General Secretary of the 
Christian Council of Ghana and a member of the Coalition of 
Domestic Election Observers (CODEO), underscored the need for 
observing and auditing during the pre-election period, which 
he thought is more open to manipulation than the polling on 
election day itself.  CODEA is planning to field over 5,000 
domestic observers, not only for polling day but, for the 
first time, also for a period during the pre-election 
campaign.  The lackluster performance of the Electoral 
Commission has some donors and party contacts worried.  A 
number of contacts have shared concerns that as many as 
700,000 people were reportedly unable to register to vote, 
mostly in regions more likely to support opposition 
candidates.  Donors to the Electoral Commission, particularly 
local British, Canadians and Danish officials, are concerned 
that the EC appears unable to account for its budget and 
reportedly will be seeking an additional 5 million USD to run 
the election. They complain that the EC is inaccessible and 
appears overwhelmed by the massive registration process. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
13. (C)  Just over two months before the December 7 
elections, Ghana is relatively calm and the electoral 
rhetoric is moderate.  President Kufuor has been actively 
touring the country, and the NPP has been effective at 
projecting his engagement in the media.  The NDC has yet to 
hit its stride and the smaller parties are weakened by 
on-again-off-again alliances and a lack of funding.  Some in 
the business community voice ambivalence, unhappy with the 
performance of the NPP government but turned off by former 
NDC President Rawlings, who has been active on the NDC 
campaign trail.  The concerns about fairness in the run-up to 
the election -- while not dissimilar to NPP claims before the 
2000 election -- bear watching.  We will engage the Electoral 
Commission on a range of election issues in the next week. 
The completeness and acceptability of the 
soon-to-be-published voter registration list will be an 
important indicator of whether this election seems to be on 
track.  End Comment. 
 
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BRIEF BIOS OF THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
14.  (U)  Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni, 55, is a Muslim Dagomba 
(Adani clan) and the Member of Parliament for Kumbunu, an 
important constituency of Dagbon in the Northern Region.  He 
holds a Master's degree in law from the University of Ghana 
and worked as a private lawyer in Tamale and as a District 
Magistrate.  After a falling out with the Convention People's 
Party (CPP), Mumuni won his first parliamentary seat in 1996 
as an NDC candidate.  He was Minister of Employment and 
Social Welfare (with Cabinet rank) in the previous NDC 
government and is currently the ranking MP for Legal, 
Constitutional and Parliamentary Affairs. 
 
15.  (C)  Alhaji Aliu Mahama, Ghana's current Vice President, 
is a Muslim Dagomba from Yendi (Abudu clan) in the Northern 
Region.  He holds a Bachelors of Science in Building 
Technology from Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and 
Technology in Kumasi.  He worked for the now-defunct State 
Construction Corporation and later formed his own civil 
engineering and contracting business.  He served as a local 
Assemblyman for the Tamale Municipal Assembly, was active in 
the Dagbon Youth Association, and quietly supported the NPP 
before being nominated as the NPP's vice presidential running 
mate in 2000.  As Vice President, Mahama has earned a 
reputation for integrity and congeniality, although his 
detractors see him as ineffective and unschooled in politics. 
LANIER