US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4299

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2014 
TAGS: PREL, TU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EC/TURKEY: A "CLEAR RECOMMENDATION" TO START 
ACCESSION TALKS 
 
REF: A. BRUSSELS 4029 
 
     B. PARIS 7178 
 
Classified By: USEU poloff Harry O'Hara, reasons 1.4 b/d 
 
1. (C) Summary: An upbeat Commissioner for Enlargement, 
Gunther Verheugen, told Ambassador Schnabel that the European 
Commission would make a "clear recommendation" October 6 that 
the EU start accession talks with Turkey. Verheugen expressed 
appreciation for the US's low-key support for Turkey, concern 
over possible French referendum plans on Turkey, and 
described a proposed braking mechanism on future enlargement 
talks as "window-dressing." The next decision point is the 
December 17 European Council, where EU heads of 
state/government will decide whether to authorize accession 
talks.  This decision will be accompanied by a heated, 
emotional and highly public debate in EU capitals as well as 
Ankara. End Summary 
 
A clear recommendation to start 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Late October 5, Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen 
told Ambassador Schnabel that he plans to publicly recommend 
October 6 that Turkey has made sufficient progress on a broad 
range of political reforms since 1996 so that the Commission 
can recommend that accession negotiations begin.  Verheugen 
said that he would offer Turkey "a clear decision" with "soft 
conditions." Ambassador Schnabel congratulated Verheugen on 
this decision, as well as his historic achievements on EU 
enlargement in the last five years. 
 
US approach appreciated 
----------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Verheugen expressed appreciation for the US's 
"low-key" approach to Turkey's desire for starting accession 
talks with the EU. He said that this had been helpful.  Other 
Commission officials have also expressed appreciation for the 
US diplomatic efforts with Turkey to keep them on track in 
the last few weeks as well as keeping US support for Turkey 
out of the bilateral US/EU political relationship. 
Commission officials describe the last months as a 
"rollercoaster" experience (ref a), particularly over recent 
flaps over adultery and penal code reforms. Verheugen 
characterized this recent period as "difficult." 
 
Concern over France 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Verheugen said that after October 6, Turkey goes to 
the member states. He said that a "comfortable majority" at 
the Council level favor starting accession talks with Turkey. 
However, Verheugen expressed particular concern with France 
-- particularly if the center-right seeks to amend the French 
constitution to require that all future EU enlargements be 
subject to a referendum (ref b).  (Other Commission officials 
have voiced concerns about Austria and Slovakia.) 
 
Good for Europe 
--------------- 
 
5.  (C) Nonetheless, Verheugen was in a very positive mood. 
He said that Turkey has made "revolutionary changes" and the 
process of accession talks with the EU will only accelerate 
this. He stressed that not only is this positive for Turkey, 
but it is also good for Europe. 
 
"Window-dressing" 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C) Verheugen acknowledge concerns from other 
Commissioners and member-states. For that reason, the 
Commission has recommended that they be allowed to adopt a 
new "braking mechanism" for all new accession negotiations -- 
not just for Turkey -- but also for Croatia and any future 
invitees.  This mechanism would allow the Commission to halt 
accession negotiations in the case of back-sliding on human 
rights or other commitments.  Verheugen described this as a 
bit of "window-dressing," because the use of such a brake 
would require a majority of member-states to authorize its 
use. Another Commission official noted to us that the current 
EU Nice Treaty already contains similar mechanisms for 
existing EU member states, whose rights can be suspended in 
the case of a serious breech of democratic standards. 
 
Looking ahead 
------------- 
 
7. (C) The Commission will not include a proposal for the 
date to begin negotiations; that will be left to the December 
17 European Council.  Assuming a positive vote, Verheugen 
anticipates a ceremony sometime in January 2005 where a time 
for talks will be announced, and that accession talks would 
also start in 2005 (preferably after France sorts out its 
referendum concerns). 
Schnabel