US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1335

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001335 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR AF/S 
STATE PASS TO MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION 
MCC FOR BRIGGS, GAULL 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MZ, Elections 04, DHLAKAMA, RENAMO 
SUBJECT: RENAMO CANDIDATE DHALAKAMA ON U.S. TRIP, CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. MAPUTO 1196 
 
B. MAPUTO 1154 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR HELEN LA LIME, REASON 1.5(d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: In a September 29 meeting with Ambassador 
La Lime, RENAMO presidential candidate Afonso Dhlakama 
outlined the themes of democracy and the need for transparent 
elections that he had emphasized in his recent visit to the 
United States. He was pleased with the visit and said he had 
found greater sympathy than on previous visits. Dhlakama 
said that, although RENAMO,s strength was in rural areas, 
his support in cities was increasing. In statements to the 
Ambassador and the press, he has acknowledged the popularity 
of outgoing president Chissano and has contrasted FRELIMO 
candidate Guebuza with Chissano. He downplayed the August 
violence in Sofala province and said he did not expect 
violence to be a problem in the campaign or the election. 
Dhlakama was not as focused in this meeting as he was in the 
U.S., and his party faces several obstacles, including a lack 
of resources and the advantages to FRELIMO of incumbency. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Ambassador La Lime met with opposition RENAMO party 
leader and presidential candidate Afonso Dhlakama on 
September 29 to discuss Dhlakama,s recent trip to the U.S. 
and the December 1-2 national elections. Dhlakama expressed 
pleasure with his visit, especially with the Republican 
convention and his meetings with USG officials and on the 
Hill. He said he had emphasized that if elected, RENAMO 
would respect agreements made by the FRELIMO government. He 
also had called for help in increasing the credibility and 
transparency of Mozambique,s elections and had stressed that 
RENAMO would not seek to take power by force. Dhlakama said 
he had put Mozambique in a regional context for his 
Washington interlocutors, citing the importance for South 
Africa and other countries in the region of a successful 
example of change of ruling party by elections and the need 
to prevent Zimbabwe from becoming the model for the region. 
He said he found greater sympathy from his audiences on this 
trip than on previous ones. (Comment: This tracks with a 
comment FRELIMO candidate Armando Guebuza made in his Sept. 4 
meeting with the Ambassador (ref a), that he had found 
greater sympathy for Mozambique during his July-August visit 
to the U.S. than on earlier visits. End Comment.) 
 
3. (C) Dhlakama said RENAMO was poor in resources but rich in 
popular support. He said that his support was mostly rural, 
especially among followers of traditional cultures whom 
FRELIMO had alienated. However, he said that stolen (his 
word) internal FRELIMO polling data indicated that his 
support was rising in cities. He claimed that city residents 
generally viewed outgoing President Chissano as a great man 
and liked him somewhat more than they did Dhlakama, whom he 
said they liked much more than they did Guebuza. Dhlakama 
claimed Guebuza was a dictator who lacked support within 
FRELIMO, was anti-white, and was a drug trafficker. 
 
4. (C) Dhlakama said his priorities if elected would be: 
replacing FRELIMO domination of the government with 
non-partisan government; promoting agricultural development; 
making justice independent of party affiliation (he claimed 
that no FRELIMO officials were in jail); creating 
opportunities for the young; and fighting HIV/AIDS. 
 
5. (C) In response to the Ambassador,s question about 
violence in Sofala province involving members of his personal 
guard (ref b), Dhlakama said his men had been provoked. He 
blamed FRELIMO actions for the failure of his personal guard 
to integrate into the police force as called for by the 1992 
Rome peace accord, saying that FRELIMO had not allowed 
successful integration of ex-RENAMO forces into the military 
and that the police remained entirely FRELIMO supporters. He 
said that violence would not be a problem in the election and 
that he, unlike Guebuza, did not want a violent campaign. 
 
6. (C) Comment: In this meeting, Dhlakama did not show the 
same focus that we understand he displayed in his meetings in 
Washington. He rambled at times, and some of his allegations 
against FRELIMO and Guebuza seemed to lack credibility. 
Dhlakama,s statements to the Ambassador and to the press 
suggest that in the campaign he will avoid too-direct 
criticism of the popular Chissano but emphasize that Guebuza 
is not Chissano and position himself as the only alternative 
to continued FRELIMO rule. 
 
7.(C) Comment, continued: In the absence of reliable polls, 
it is difficult to be sure what outcomes are likely in the 
presidential and legislative elections. While RENAMO 
arguments that many people in rural areas are not sympathetic 
to FRELIMO and are less favorably disposed towards Guebuza 
than they are towards Chissano are at least plausible, RENAMO 
has done little campaigning, its candidates appear less 
polished than FRELIMO,s, and it lacks the many advantages of 
incumbency. End Comment. 
LA LIME