US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2028

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002028 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR/BLEVINE 
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF 
STAT FOR INR/AA 
STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY 
STATE PASS TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER 
STATE PASS DOC PHUPER 
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2009 
TAGS: EPET, CASC, PGOV, MOPS, NI 
SUBJECT: DELTA UPDATE FOR OCTOBER 4 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.5 (B & D) 
 
Summary 
--------- 
 
1. (C) There have been no reports of fighting between 
the GON military and any of the informal militias in the Port 
Harcourt area.  Press reported celebrations continued 
Saturday and Sunday in the streets of Port Harcourt due to 
the announcement of a tentative agreement between the federal 
government and the two rival rebel groups, the Niger Delta 
People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and the Niger Delta 
Vigilante Group (NDVG).  There are plans for the GON to meet 
with the rebel groups again on 8 October for further 
discussions.  AGIP drew down personnel last week in what 
appeared to be a limited response to localized threats. 
 
Security Update 
---------------- 
 
2. (C) The Port Harcourt area remained peaceful over the 
weekend and into today.  Asari, and to a lesser extent Tom, 
received heros' welcomes upon returning to Port Harcourt from 
Abuja.  There were unconfirmed press reports that the GON has 
moved its military forces away from Asari's hometown of 
Buguma.  Apparently, the military might have moved forces to 
Buguma while Asari was in Abuja for talks.  This move was 
seen by Asari as a sign of bad faith by the GON. 
 
3. (C) While Port Harcourt celebrated, there remained many 
unanswered questions regarding the communique issued in 
Abuja.  Asari publicly stated that the pact with the 
government is contingent on the GON meeting its demands for a 
national conference, and for a degree of political autonomy 
and resource control.  Government spokespersons have also 
been coy on divulging the details of any agreements reached 
between the GON and the militias. 
 
Energy Sector Report 
---------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) According to a contact in Port Harcourt, average 
persons there welcomed the respite from the violence, and 
were reacting based only on their hopes.  A Shell official 
stated the company was still cautious, but the situation was 
looking better.  Shell is reviewing the security situation 
daily; Shell personnel still need armed escorts to move about 
Port Harcourt. 
 
5. (C) We have credible reports that on September 30, AGIP 
removed some of its personnel and visiting Conoco Philips 
(CP) personnel (including about seven AMCITs) from two AGIP 
facilities around the Port Harcourt area in separate 
incidents.  The move was due to sporadic shooting in the area 
of one facility, (SAIPEM) and a direct threat received by 
AGIP to the other facility.  The SAIPEM fabrication facility 
is 5-8 kilometers south of Port Harcourt.  Production was not 
affected by these withdrawals. 
 
Press Report: Governor Announces Amnesty Plan 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
6. (C) Seeing his national political ambitions being 
tarnished, and perhaps feeling a bit irrelevant to the Abuja 
process, embattled River state Governor Odili made a weekend 
broadcast expressing happiness for the cease-fire, and 
promising to raise a special committee to assist in the 
rehabilitation and reintegration of aggrieved people.  Odili 
reminded listeners that violence would only chase much-needed 
investment away from their region.  The Governor reportedly 
granted amnesty to the militias if they turn in their 
weapons. 
 
ACS Report 
----------- 
 
7. (C) Seven AMCITs were evacuated safely from AGIP 
facilities (para five).  There were no other reports of 
incidents involving AMCITs. 
Comment 
-------- 
 
8. (C) We are getting two distinct interpretations 
regarding the talks between the GON and the rebel groups. 
Some people are interpreting the communique as a sign of a 
final settlement between the parties.  However, an NGO 
official who claims to have participated in the negotiations 
says the agreement is much more tentative and conditional. 
Asari's statements that the pact will be broken if the GON 
fails to recognize demands for a sovereign national 
conference and increased resource control lends credence to 
this less optimistic interpretation. 
 
9. (C) What we can say for sure is that violence has 
diminished, and the GON and militants have talked.  Although 
the communiqu was signed, we do not believe a binding, full 
agreement has been reached.  The issues were too many and too 
important for an agreement to have been struck unless Asari 
has actually, albeit not publicly, capitulated on his 
demands.  Nonetheless, the mood is positive, which will help 
to reduce tension and violence in the short term. 
 
10. (C) Rivers state Governor Odili's announcement of an 
amnesty was another wild card.  Thorny details of 
implementation were not thought out because Odili probably 
made the statement more for political posturing than to 
advance peace.  Whether the program would extend to those 
guilty of killing civilians, police, or GON military must be 
addressed, as should the fundamental question of whether a 
state governor has this authority.  As these details are 
fleshed out, the proposed amnesty program could boomerang on 
Odili.  As with his relationship with Asari, it will not be 
the first time that Odili has suffered a strong backfire from 
his political machinations. 
BROWNE