US embassy cable - 04MANAMA1524

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001524 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, PTER, ECON, OVIP, BA 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RUMSFELD'S VISIT TO 
BAHRAIN OCTOBER 9-10 
 
Classified by Charge d'Affaires Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S) Mr. Secretary, we warmly welcome you to Bahrain. 
While the genesis of your trip is meeting with Operation 
Iraqi Freedom coalition Ministers of Defense on the aircraft 
carrier John F. Kennedy, your visit comes at an important 
time in our bilateral relationship with Bahrain.  The mil-mil 
relationship spanning some 50 years experienced a rare hiccup 
last summer when the U.S. grew concerned about Bahraini 
resolve in pursuing a small group of dangerous terrorist 
suspects.  Bahrainis were shocked by the departure of Navy 
dependents, issuance of a U.S. travel warning, and the 
threatened closure of the DOD Bahrain School, to which many 
senior Bahraini officials send their children and which 
counts Crown Prince Salman among its alumni. 
 
2.  (S) Several positive developments have occurred since 
then.  The Bahrainis rearrested the six and continue to 
detain the four most dangerous of them.  The State Department 
lifted the travel warning and DOD agreed to continue 
operating the Bahrain School, enabling it to open on time for 
the school year.  The United States and Bahrain also signed a 
free trade agreement (FTA), the first with a Gulf state and 
only the third in the Arab world. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Deep U.S. Concern About Prosecuting Extremists 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
3.  (S) There are, nonetheless, lingering concerns on both 
sides.  We remain concerned about the status of the case 
against the four remaining detainees and we continue to urge 
the GOB to conduct a robust investigation and prosecution, 
which would send the right message on the GOB's commitment to 
combating terrorism.  Bahrain is proud to host NAVCENT 
Headquarters, and is apprehensive that the continued 
departure of Navy dependents as well as regional and global 
force posture reviews may portend further changes in the 
Navy's profile in Bahrain. 
 
4.  (S) While Bahrain's people have not been immune to the 
waves of anti-Americanism present in the region - daily 
pictures in newspapers and on television have had an impact - 
the leadership has remained steadfast in its support for the 
United States and for its bilateral relationship with the 
USG.  It has openly championed the FTA as the key to its 
economic future and continues to embrace the Navy as the key 
to its present and future security. 
 
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Objectives 
---------- 
 
5.  (S) What we want from the visit: 
 
-- Renewed commitment from the GOB, preferably directly from 
the King, that Bahrain will conduct a thorough investigation 
and prosecution of the four terrorism suspects and send the 
right message on counter-terrorism. 
 
-- An indication of Bahrain's long range thinking on the U.S. 
Navy presence in country. 
 
-- Continued Bahrain support, both politically and in 
practical terms, for our efforts in Iraq and Operation 
Enduring Freedom maritime operations. 
 
----------------------------- 
Issues of Interest to Bahrain 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (S) The Bahrainis will want to hear from you on: 
 
-- A reaffirmation of the Navy's long-term commitment to 
Bahrain. 
 
-- The path forward on Iraq. 
 
-- Shaken by the events of last summer, Bahrain will welcome 
positive statements on its support for OIF and OEF. 
 
-- Anything you can say about a return, even partial, of Navy 
dependents and your thoughts on the future of the Bahrain 
School. 
 
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Key Issues to Raise 
------------------- 
 
7.  (S) We suggest you raise the following key points: 
 
-- Express appreciation for Bahrain's hospitality in serving 
as the venue for this event involving Ministers of Defense 
from the coalition in Iraq. 
 
-- Recognize the long history of mil-mil cooperation with 
Bahrain, most notably through hosting NAVCENT. 
 
-- Praise Bahrain's support for OEF, OIF, and U.S. policy in 
Iraq, including training for Iraqi financial specialists and 
firefighters. 
 
-- Commend the King's steps on political and economic reform 
and his active participation in the G8 Broader Middle East 
and North Africa reform initiative. Note our concern that 
Bahrain keep to this path of reform. 
 
-- Reaffirm the commitment of the U.S. Navy in Bahrain. 
 
-- Stress our concern on counter-terrorism, noting that 
everything we want to do in Bahrain, from military 
cooperation to FTA, depends on close cooperation in this 
area.  Successful prosecution of the remaining four detainees 
will improve the security situation on the ground and send 
the right signal to Al Qaida and the world that Bahrain will 
not tolerate any connection to terrorism on its soil. 
 
 
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Issues Background 
----------------- 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
8.  (S) Bahrain supports our goals and role in Iraq.  They 
recognize the critical nature of stabilizing the security 
situation, holding elections and establishing a government 
that represents all of Iraq's communities, and preventing 
neighboring countries from meddling in Iraq's domestic 
situation.  King Hamad told General Abizaid on September 27 
that U.S. forces should plan to depart Iraq as soon as 
possible following the elections so that Iraq could develop 
its own leaders and not rely upon the United States to deal 
with its problems.  In contrast, Crown Prince Salman and 
Defense Minister Al Khalifa asserted that the U.S. should 
remain in Iraq until the Iraqis are in a position to provide 
security themselves.  All agreed that elections should be 
held without delay and identified Iran as the greatest 
long-term threat to Iraq's future. 
 
9.  (S) In addition to hosting NAVCENT, Bahrain deployed 35 
tanks and 1,500 troops to Kuwait during OIF and flew air 
patrols over Kuwait and Bahrain.  They also deployed their 
frigate the Al Sabha during both OIF and OEF.  They are 
considering deploying patrol boats to the northern Arabian 
Gulf should they receive a formal request from the Interim 
Iraqi Government. 
 
Foreign Military Financing 
-------------------------- 
 
10.  (S) Bahrain received $24.85 million in FMF grants from 
the FY04 Department of State budget. This brings the FMF 
total over the past three fiscal years to $145 million, 
including funding from the FY02 and FY03 supplementals.  The 
Bahrainis have used these funds to purchase a TPS 59 radar 
(due to arrive late 2006), an infrared countermeasures suite 
for the King's new 747-400 (due in 12 months), the 
refurbishment of 14 Cobra helicopters, and multiple spare 
cases for all services.  Due to the military's aging 
equipment and growing maintenance costs, the Bahrain Defense 
Force sees FMF as an important means to bridge their budget 
deficits and to sustain readiness. 
 
Security 
-------- 
 
11.  (S) All of Bahrain's leaders are adamantly determined to 
maintain security for Americans here.  Whenever we make 
requests for extra security, the police respond immediately 
and appropriately.  The GOB continues to hold the four most 
dangerous of the six terrorism suspects, and we are urging 
the government to conduct a robust investigation and 
prosecution.  The Crown Prince has mentioned a number of 
times that the Minister of Interior, who was appointed during 
the spring, "gets" our concerns, but that capacity building 
at the Bahrain National Security Agency (BNSA) and Attorney 
General's office requires additional work.  The GOB has 
committed to working with the USG to establish a 
Counter-Terrorism Operations Center and a Counter-Terrorism 
Intelligence Center, though establishment of the latter is 
pending management changes at BNSA.  Parliament will open its 
next session on October 9, the day of your visit, and it is 
expected to consider a draft counter-terrorism law during the 
2004-05 session.  The new law would apply stiff penalties for 
conspiracy to commit terrorist acts. 
 
Democratic Reform 
----------------- 
 
12.  (S) The 2002 constitution established an elected lower 
house of parliament, the Council of Representatives, while 
the upper house, the Consultative Council, is appointed by 
the King.  Due to the breakdown of the process of advancing 
legislation during the 2003-04 legislative session and calls 
for amendments to the constitution, the government and four 
opposition societies are engaged in a "constitutional 
dialogue" to resolve their differences. 
13.  (S) In late September, the GOB arrested human rights 
activist Abdul Hadi Al Khawaja following his comments at a 
forum on poverty in which he reportedly accused the Prime 
Minister of mismanaging the economy during his 30-plus years 
in office.  Days later, the government closed the Bahrain 
Center for Human Rights, which organized the forum, accusing 
it of political activities that contravened the Societies Law 
and the Center's own charter.  We have expressed our concern 
with this apparent step backward in the GOB's reform process. 
 
Economy 
------- 
 
14.  (S) The United States and Bahrain signed a free trade 
agreement on September 14, marking a new level of commitment 
in our bilateral economic relationship.  Bahrain is the first 
country in the Gulf region to have an FTA with us, and joins 
Jordan and Morocco as the only Arab states with FTAs.  We 
hope to use the Bahrain FTA as a springboard to promote 
economic reform, openness, and transparency in the region, 
and as an important step in realizing the President's vision 
of a Middle East Free Trade Area by 2013.  Bahrain will cite 
the FTA as the United States' endorsement of its economy and 
to market Bahrain as a regional center for finance, 
insurance, banking, business services, education, and health 
care. 
 
Middle East Peace 
----------------- 
 
15. (S) The Bahraini government is deeply troubled by the 
continuing violence in Israel and the Palestinian 
territories.  Though far from the conflict, Bahrainis 
identify with the Palestinians.  The Crown Prince has told us 
that he would like to work with the Israeli government, in 
particular in fending off threats from Iran, but he cannot do 
so in the absence of some sort of settlement between Israel 
and the Palestinians.  The Crown Prince appreciates that the 
President has gone far to promote the establishment of a 
viable, independent Palestinian state, but he has asked that 
the Administration make a gesture to relieve the suffering of 
the Palestinian people.  Flare-ups in violence in the 
territories inevitably transfer directly into heightened 
emotions among average Bahrainis. 
 
ZIADEH