US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS4265

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2014 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, ETRD, SR, MW, ICTY, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: THE COMMISSION'S EXPLANATION OF EU'S "TWIN TRACK" 
APPROACH TO SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 B/D 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  The Commission reports that its new "twin track" approach 
to Serbia and Montenegro (SaM) met with an enthusiastic 
response in both Belgrade and Podgorica.  Further details 
still need to be hashed out, however, on when, whether and 
how a feasibility study on negotiations for a Stabilization 
and Association Agreement could begin.  A visit by Patten and 
Solana on October 5 is supposed to firm up at least some of 
these details.  On one point the Commission remains firm: 
SaM's cooperation with ICTY must improve if SAA negotiations 
are to begin in 2005.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Therese Sobieski, Head of Unit for Serbia and 
Montenegro at the European Commission (EC), tried to explain 
the EU's "twin track" to negotiations on a Stabilization and 
Association Agreement with Serbia and Montenegro in a recent 
meeting with USEU's PolOff and USAID Advisor. 
 
A "TWIN TRACK" TOWARD A SINGLE AGREEMENT 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) According to Sobieski, the impetus for the "twin 
track" came from growing frustration in the Commission that 
the EU's preferred strategy of dealing with Serbia and 
Montenegro as a single economic unit was making no progress. 
Meetings this past July had been "a moment of truth" that the 
EU must recognize the reality of the two republics' growing 
authorities.  Therefore, the EC had proposed the EU drop its 
insistence on economic harmonization and elaboration of an 
Internal Market Action Plan (IMAP) as a precondition for 
SaM's next step on the path of European integration: a 
Feasibility Study on whether SaM is ready to begin 
negotiations for a Stabilization and Association Agreement 
(SAA) with the EU.  Previously, the EC had insisted an IMAP 
was needed before it could evaluate SaM's economy in a 
feasibility study.  Now, the EC was reconciled to the need to 
prepare separate sections on the economies of Montenegro and 
Serbia.  Sobieski insisted, however, that the EU Foreign 
Ministers, in endorsing the EC's proposal were still keen to 
continue the EU's policy in support of keeping the State 
Union together.  The EC would prepare only one feasibility 
study, and eventually, negotiate a single SAA, with separate 
sections, protocols or annexes as necessary for the two 
republics. 
 
NEXT STEPS 
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4. (SBU) Sobieski said that the EU's first trip in 
mid-September to explain the "twin track" approach to 
Belgrade and Podgorica had been met with enthusiasm in both 
cities, although she acknowledged that this was "maybe not 
for the same reasons" in each government (i.e., Belgrade sees 
progress toward an SAA, Podgorica sees progress toward 
independence).  The Serbs and Montenegrins were also asked to 
make two commitments:  that they will agree between 
themselves on which areas should be negotiated by the EU with 
the State Union, and which with the respective republic 
governments; and that they will not take any steps to 
undermine the State Union government.  In particular, the EU 
stressed that this "twin-track" approach should not be 
extrapolated to any other issues, such as WTO membership. 
Commissioner Patten and High Rep Solana will visit Belgrade 
on October 5 to hear their response, and the EU will then 
decide if work on a feasibility study can begin.  The 
Commission also hopes the Patten/Solana visit with help 
clarify what the EU is and is not putting on the table, 
although Sobieski noted they fully expect that "everyone will 
hear what they want to hear." 
 
POSSIBLE CALENDAR 
----------------- 
 
5. (C) Assuming that all went smoothly, which Sobieski 
thought unlikely, the shortest conceivable calendar for SaM's 
progress would be that drafting of a feasibility study would 
begin this month, and the study might be finished in February 
2005.  If the study's conclusion was positive that SaM was 
ready to begin SAA negotiations (an unlikely prospect unless 
the GoSaM improves cooperation with ICTY -- see next para), 
then the Commission would need to seek a negotiating mandate 
from the EU Member States in the Council.  Actual 
negotiations of an SAA were unlikely to start before late 
2005.  And, as the contrasting examples of Macedonia (six 
months) and Albania (going on two years and counting) show, 
it is impossible to predict how long such negotiations might 
last. 
 
ICTY CONDITIONALITY 
------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) One message that Sobieski (and several other EU 
interlocutors) was keen to stress with us was that the EU's 
"twin track" approach in no way implies a relaxing of the 
EU's ICTY conditionality.  Sobieski said any feasibility 
study will include discussion of the "political 
conditionality" for SAA negotiations, and key among these was 
that the GoSaM is meeting its international obligations 
toward ICTY.  The Commission hopes that by removing economic 
harmonization as a stumbling block for SaM progress toward an 
SAA, the "twin track" will actually help focus Belgrade and 
Podgorica on the need for improved cooperation.  This is a 
message Patten and Solana will again deliver clearly on 
October 5. 
 
COMMENT 
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7. (C) We are unconvinced the EU has fully thought through 
the political ramifications of the "twin track."  Despite the 
EU's insistence it still supports a united SaM, even some EU 
officials have told us this change in policy is a weakening 
the EU's pressure to keep Montenegro from declaring 
independence.  But for us, the key issue is that negotiation 
of an SAA with SaM remain firmly conditioned on better 
cooperation with ICTY.  And the Commission appears to be 
solid on this point.  It is, nonetheless, a point we will 
want reconfirm as the Balkans portfolio passes from External 
Relations Commissioner Patten to Enlargement Commissioner 
Olli Rehn of Finland in the next Commission beginning on 
November 1. 
 
SCHNABEL