US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3077

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: CSB PLANS MAJOR CROSS-STRAIT OVERTURE 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 1445 
 
     B. TAIPEI 3002 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian announced on October 
3 that he will use his October 10 National Day address make a 
"major statement" on cross-Strait relations that will serve 
Taiwan's long-term security and normalize relations across 
the Taiwan Strait.  Chen pledged to use the speech to respond 
to the PRC's May 17 statement on Taiwan policy.  Presidential 
aides say that Chen's 10/10 speech will "go beyond" his May 
20 inaugural address, and will include concrete assurances 
that Taiwan will not move towards de jure independence.  They 
hope a positive gesture by the president now will help start 
off relations with a consolidated Hu Jintao government on a 
positive footing.  Details of the October 10 text are yet to 
be finalized, but officials promise to keep AIT abreast of 
the process.  End Summary. 
 
Beyond May 20 
------------- 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian told a group of 
Mainland-based Taiwan business people (Taishang) on October 3 
that he will redouble efforts to create a stable environment 
for cross-Strait relations.  According to a text provided to 
AIT by the Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) before the 
speech, Chen said that his government remains committed to 
moving forward with direct transportation links and renewed 
dialogue in order to build a basis of trust across the Taiwan 
Strait.  Chen said his government's main goal is to create an 
environment under which the PRC could achieve its goal of a 
"peaceful rise" without upsetting regional stability.  Chen 
reiterated his May 20 formulation that his government would 
not rule out any form of future relationship between Taiwan 
and the Mainland as long as it is acceptable to the Taiwan 
people. 
 
3. (C) In this context, Chen announced that in "seven days," 
he would make an "important statement" (zhongyao tanhua) that 
would further Taiwan's long-term security interests and help 
"normalize" cross-Strait relations.  Chen said that this 
statement would include a response to the PRC's May 17 Taiwan 
policy platform (Ref A).  Chen stated that his October 10 
speech would be in the spirit of his May 20 inaugural address 
and would not be influenced by domestic political factors. 
During his October 3 remarks, Chen also made reference to 
Taiwan's efforts to strengthen its self-defense capabilities. 
 While warning against harboring "illusions" over PRC 
intentions, he stated that Taiwan's defense modernization was 
aimed at protecting the island's democracy and economic 
growth, not provoking a cross-Strait arms race. 
 
Seizing an Opportunity 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C) Chen advisors say that the president's October 10 
speech will aim to provide PRC President Hu Jintao a basis 
for making a reciprocal goodwill gesture during his 
anticipated January speech to mark the 10th anniversary of 
Jiang Zemin's "Eight Points" on Taiwan policy.  National 
Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor (and long-time Chen 
senior speechwriter) Lin Jin-chang told AIT that the 
president believes there is a unique opening for improved 
cross-Strait ties in the wake of Jiang's sudden departure 
from the Central Military Commission (CMC).  "He wants to use 
this occasion to mark a 'new beginning' in relations between 
the two sides," Lin remarked.  Lin added that Chen is willing 
to tone down the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) 
campaign plan for the December legislative election to 
achieve this goal, even if it means losing votes to the 
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU). 
 
Direction Set: Devil in the Details 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait policy Chen 
Chung-hsin told AIT that while there is agreement over the 
direction for the president's October 10 address, the text 
has not been finalized.  Chen said that the president has 
told his staff that he wants to "go beyond May 20" in terms 
of tone and substance, but added that there is still an 
ongoing internal discussion over whether to offer specific 
policy proposals or simply send a generalized goodwill 
message.  Chen asserted that the important point will be to 
address the "first part" of the May 17 PRC statement, which 
demanded that Taiwan accept "one China" and cease Taiwan 
independence activities.  Chen said that finding a workable 
formula on "one China" may be difficult, but he is pushing 
hard for the president to borrow language from the 1979 
U.S.-China communique and declare that Taiwan "acknowledges 
the PRC position that there is but one China and that Taiwan 
is part of China."  Chen said that NSC Secretary General 
Chiou I-jen has responded positively to this suggestion, but 
noted that the initiative has not yet been cleared by the 
Presidential Office. 
 
6. (C) Even more important than finding a "one China" 
formula, Chen continued, would be for the president to signal 
on October 10 his resolve not to move towards de jure 
independence.  Chen said the president has been concerned 
that recent statements by the premier (Ref B) and Foreign 
Minister may have given Beijing the perception that the DPP 
government is drifting in more extreme directions.  Chen 
asserted that the best way for the president to address this 
concern will be to strengthen his May 20 pledges over future 
constitutional reforms. 
 
7. (C) Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Senior Secretary Jan 
Jyh-horng said that AIT would be kept informed as the text 
draft is firmed up.  Jan expressed hope that the drafting 
process would be done in a more methodical way than President 
Chen's October 3 speech text, which was prepared in the span 
of a few hours.  Jan noted that the president was not 
originally scheduled to attend the October 3 dinner hosted by 
the SEF.  It was not until late Saturday evening (October 2) 
that Chen informed MAC Chair Joseph Wu that he wanted to 
deliver the keynote address in Wu's place.  Jan said that 
Chen told Wu that he felt the need to personally set the 
record straight following the string of "confusing" 
statements made by senior officials in his government. 
 
Comment: Good Intentions, Uncertain Follow-Through 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8. (C) It is encouraging that Chen has decided to seek an 
early opportunity to send a goodwill message to the PRC 
leadership.  However, we will watch carefully how he follows 
through on these good intentions.  In the past, many of 
Chen's attempts to send positive signals have been so ill 
crafted as to produce the opposite result.  An over-ambitious 
offer that appears out of line with other recent policies or 
statements is likely to be dismissed by Beijing as a mere PR 
ploy.  Chen will also need to resist the temptation to mix 
his October 10 messages to please different constituencies. 
Chen's timing and specific points may prove critically 
important in light of recent indications from travelers to 
Beijing and Hong Kong press reports that the PRC is renewing 
an offer of dialogue.  We will closely follow the drafting 
process over the coming days and encourage the Chen 
government to seize real opportunities if they emerge and 
avoid past pitfalls. 
PAAL