US embassy cable - 04MANAMA1516

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, PTER, BA, IZ, IR 
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH 
KING, CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER 
 
 
Classified by Charge d'Affaires Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Commander U.S. Central Command General Abizaid met 
with King Hamad, Crown Prince Salman, and Defense Minister 
Khalifa on September 27 to discuss Iraq and the upcoming 
elections there, the need for full Sunni participation in the 
election, Iranian interference in Iraq, and the situations in 
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.  The King stated that the United 
States had achieved its mission in Iraq and should pull its 
forces out of the country as soon as possible after the 
elections so that Iraqis could settle their differences 
themselves.  In contrast with this view, the Crown Prince and 
Defense Minister both stressed the need for the U.S. to 
remain in Iraq until the security situation was stabilized. 
Regarding Sunni participation in the elections, the CP 
suggested the U.S. support the launch of a reconciliation 
campaign.  All the General's interlocutors believed that Iran 
represents a great danger in Iraq and in the region.  The 
Bahrainis stressed the value of the U.S.-Bahrain mil-mil 
relationship and look forward to strengthening the bilateral 
ties.  They believe that Saudi Arabia is making progress in 
the fight against domestic militants.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) In meetings September 27 with King Hamad bin Isa Al 
Khalifa, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, and 
Defense Minister Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Commander U.S. 
Central Command General Abizaid focused his discussions on 
the situation in Iraq and the upcoming elections there.  He 
stated that the United States was committed to remaining in 
Iraq as long as necessary, but was working closely with the 
Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) to appoint loyal senior 
military leaders so that Iraqis could take the lead in 
combating the insurgency.  Abizaid pointed out the danger of 
Iranian meddling in Iraqi internal politics and the downsides 
of general Sunni intransigence and hesitation about 
participating in the elections.  He emphasized continuing 
strong U.S. support for Bahrain and defense of the Kingdom. 
 
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Contrasting Advice on U.S. Forces in Iraq 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) King Hamad stated that the United States had 
accomplished its objectives in Iraq, removing Saddam and 
settling the WMD issue, and it now should plan to depart Iraq 
as soon as possible following the Iraqi elections.  He 
asserted that Iraqis were now relying upon the U.S. to settle 
their differences and offer solutions, thus absolving Iraqis 
themselves from any responsibility.  This situation was 
unhealthy for both the U.S. and Iraq.  The King acknowledged 
that Iraqis likely would fight each other following an 
American departure, but not for an extended period.  He said 
that if they identified the right leaders, the country could 
move in the right direction.  While division of the country 
was a possibility, this was a matter for Iraqis to decide. 
The United States could still maintain a robust presence in 
the region, with bases both inside Iraq and in other Gulf 
countries, and this would send the strong message that 
regional stability and development were strategic U.S. 
interests. 
 
4.  (C) In contrast with the King's comments, Crown Prince 
Salman and Defense Minister Khalifa strongly urged the United 
States to remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future.  The CP 
said that the U.S. should offer comprehensive support for 
Iraq - military, economic, and political.  He recommended 
that the U.S. engage with traditional local power structures, 
such as influential tribes in the rural areas.  He suggested 
that the U.S. had lost an opportunity by disbanding the 
former Iraqi military.  The U.S. now should be working 
closely with the IIG to appoint senior military leaders loyal 
to the new government.  The Defense Minister said that the 
U.S. role was indispensable and that if it withdrew from Iraq 
now, there would be civil war the next day. 
 
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Iraqi Elections 
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5.  (C) The King stressed that elections in Iraq should 
proceed as planned, saying "one delay will lead to another." 
He cautioned that Iraq is not ready for a "real democracy," 
and the results of completely open elections in Iraq would 
not be in the long-term interest of Iraq or the United 
States.  In his view, Iraq can currently absorb some 
democracy, but commitment to true democratic ideals could 
take time. 
 
6.  (C) The Crown Prince said that the United States should 
support the development of a reconciliation program in Iraq 
to encourage Sunnis to participate in the elections.  The 
message should focus on the future and what benefits the 
Sunnis would derive from full participation.  Abizaid said 
that the intimidation power of the Baathists within the Sunni 
community was still very strong, and others were looking 
toward Zarqawi.  The Sunni community had a great opportunity 
to move forward, but it could find itself marginalized if 
they missed this chance.  He warned that any Iraqi choosing 
to support Zarqawi and his extremists would become a 
permanent enemy of the United States.  Defense Minister 
Khalifa downplayed the significance of the threat posed by 
residents of the Sunni triangle, saying that Iran was 
ultimately a much more lethal danger. 
 
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Iranian Meddling In Iraq 
------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) The three Bahraini leaders agreed that Iran 
represents a great danger in Iraq and the region.  The Crown 
Prince said that Iran's ideology is that of "horribly 
inhumane terrorists" that has no future, resulting ultimately 
in "repulsing" people.  The Defense Minister commented that 
the United States tends to see a difference between the IRGC 
and Khatemi, but in his view the two groups have a shared 
strategy, the only difference is in their tactics.  Abizaid 
noted that Iran was playing a more active role in Iraq now 
than it did one year ago. 
 
8.  (C) The Crown Prince commented that Syria seemed to have 
no idea about what was happening on its border with Iraq. 
Abizaid indicated that Syria was playing a dangerous game in 
Iraq.  There were indications that Syria was assisting the 
insurgents while the insurgents were cooperating with the 
extremists.  If the Syrian government did not pay close 
enough attention, it might find itself dealing with a 
challenge from these same extremists at some point. 
 
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Bahrain As Regional Model 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) The King emphasized that Bahrain was proud to host 
NAVCENT Headquarters and welcomed U.S. visitors to the 
Kingdom.  Bahrain had implemented a number of political and 
economic reforms, and could serve as a model for other Gulf 
countries.  When Bahraini citizens complain that the country 
is not moving in the right direction, the King replies that 
they have the option to run for office and argue their point 
of view.  The King wants to develop institutions independent 
of any particular ideology or sect.  He asserted that Bahrain 
would like to host a meeting of G8 and regional foreign 
ministers in January to discuss the Broader Middle East/North 
Africa Initiative.  He commented that other Arabs had good 
words, but Bahrain had good deeds. 
 
10.  (C) In response to the General's question, the Crown 
Prince said Bahrain would prosecute the four terrorism 
suspects.  The Ministry of Interior was working hard on the 
issue, though the Bahrain National Security Agency and the 
Attorney General's office needed to be improved.  The CP 
noted that under current Bahraini law, the maximum penalty 
for conspiracy to commit a crime was three years, and the 
suspects deserved to remain in prison much longer than that. 
The new draft counter-terrorism law proposed significantly 
more severe penalties for conspiracy to carry out terrorist 
attacks.  The Crown Prince mentioned that the suspect who 
fled the courtroom during his hearing in early September 
would face additional charges and would be held longer. 
 
11.  (C) The Crown Prince cited the strength of the 
U.S.-Bahrain bilateral relationship and recognized quick 
negotiation of the free trade agreement.  He thanked the 
military for reopening the DOD Bahrain School.  Noting that 
his children attend the school, he said he felt confident 
that it was safe and secure.  He requested that the teachers 
be permitted to bring their families back to Bahrain. 
 
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Mil-Mil Cooperation 
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12.  (C) Regarding military cooperation, Abizaid suggested 
that Bahrain develop a capability as a regional center for 
excellence, perhaps in simulator training.  Defense Minister 
Al Khalifa replied that the simulator project was on the 
right track but he was not yet ready for a purchase.  Abizaid 
noted that the U.S. was working with Jordan to establish a 
special forces training center, and the Minister stated that 
Bahrain holds annual joint special forces exercises with 
Jordan and the two sides benefit from the interaction. 
 
13.  (C) The Defense Minister expressed great concern about 
Iranian ballistic missile developments.  Though the Shahab 
missile is not accurate, its range, combined with Iran's 
focus on a nuclear program, was disturbing.  He said Iran is 
desperate to have a nuclear weapon, and there needed to be 
plans to ensure they do not get it.  Abizaid responded that 
all options were on the table in dealing with the Iranian 
nuclear threat.  The United States wanted to work with Gulf 
countries to develop a regional ballistic missile defense 
system. 
 
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Saudi Arabia Fighting Hard 
-------------------------- 
 
14.  (C) Regarding Saudi Arabia, the King said that the 
government was fighting the terrorists to the best of its 
ability.  It had waited too long to recognize the threat but 
was now dealing with it seriously.  The Defense Minister 
indicated that Bahrain and Saudi Arabia enjoy excellent 
cooperation at the border and are developing closer links for 
sharing information.  Abizaid told the Crown Prince that many 
of the foreign fighters and suicide bombers in Iraq were 
Saudi.  He worried that as the security situation in Iraq 
stabilized, the Saudis would return to their country and 
might cause trouble there. 
 
ZIADEH