US embassy cable - 04ANKARA5661

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EB/TPP/ABT - EDWARD HEARTNEY 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/OTEXA/MARIA D'ANDREA 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, EIND, KTEX, TU 
SUBJECT:  TURKISH TEXTILE AND APPAREL PRODUCTION AND 
EMPLOYMENT DATA 
 
Ref: (A) STATE 184238 (B) ADANA 112 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1. (U)  Ref A requested data on Turkish textile and 
apparel employment and production data for country 
beneficiaries of U.S. trade preference programs.  The 
GOT and Turkey's leading business association in these 
sectors provided conflicting statistics, in part due to 
the large share of the informal economy in textile and 
apparel manufacturing. 
 
2. (U) According to the General Secretariat of Istanbul 
Textile and Apparel Exporter's Association (IHKIB) and 
the Foreign Trade Undersecretariat (FTU), Turkey's 
total textile and apparel production will reach USD 30 
billion in 2004.  Of this, USD 24 billion is expected 
to be sold abroad.  Of the USD 24 billion, USD 18.5 
billion is sold as official exports, while the balance 
consists of unregistered "suitcase" trade with 
countries of the former Soviet Union. 
 
3. (U) A Turkish Foreign Trade Undersecretariat 
official told us that the textile and apparel industry 
accounts for 13.5 percent of GNP and 18.7 percent of 
manufacturing production.  These sectors' share is 11 
percent of total employment and 30 percent of 
manufacturing sector employment.  The sectors' share in 
total exports is 33.2 percent.  IHKIB states that the 
textiles and apparel sectors account for 10.6 percent 
of the Turkish GDP, 20 percent of industrial 
production, 21 percent of the manufacturing labor 
force, and 37 percent of Turkey's total exports. 
(Note:  the official total employment figure is 19.9 
million.  End Note.) 
 
4. (U) In 2003, Turkey's textile and apparel exports to 
the U.S. were USD 1.7 billion, or 3.6 percent of total 
exports (USD 47.1 billion). Turkey's textile and 
apparel exports to the U.S. account for 12 percent of 
its total textile and apparel exports. According to the 
IHKIB, which publishes the sector's trade data monthly, 
Turkey is the 19th-largest apparel supplier to the U.S. 
market, with a 1.8 percent share, and the 10th-largest 
textile supplier, with 2.9 percent share. 
 
5. (U) Turkey is also the second-largest apparel 
supplier to the EU market, with a market share of 11.6 
percent, and the fifth-largest textile supplier to the 
EU, with an eight percent market share.  The EU's share 
in Turkey's total textile and apparel exports was 64.7 
percent (USD 9.6 billion) in 2003 or 20.4 percent of 
Turkey's total exports.  ITKIB claims Turkey will lose 
30 percent of its EU market share after 2005, whereas 
FTU estimates a loss of about 20 percent. 
 
6. (U) IHKB contends that removal of quotas will cause 
1 million workers to lose their jobs in Turkey, with 
annual export losses forecasted at USD 6 billion. 
Turkish exporters have lobbied to delay removal of 
quotas to 2008, and had received the support of 
industry associations in 52 countries so far, including 
in the U.S. 
 
7. (SBU) FTU officials have told us that, while the GOT 
sympathizes with the position taken in the Istanbul 
Initiative, it has not officially endorsed a delay in 
removal of quotas. 
 
8. (U) Embassy's points of contact on textile issues 
are Economic Officer Aldo Sirotic and Economic 
Specialist Defne Sadiklar.  Both can be reached at 
telephone 90 312 455-5555. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (U) Sector-based employment data is difficult to 
obtain in Turkey. The National Statistics Institute 
(DIE) releases general employment data on a quarterly 
basis. Its statistical methods are being questioned by 
international organizations such as the IMF and the 
World Bank. For sectoral employment data, post usually 
refers to business organizations' reports like the 
IHKIB's. 
 
10. (U) Turkey's gray economy is large - by some 
estimates as large as the formal economy.  The textiles 
and apparel industries depend on low-wage labor and a 
significant portion of the industry is outside the 
formal economy.  While intensified competition may lead 
to job losses reflected in official statistics, it is 
likely that at least some of these jobs will shift from 
the formal to informal economy. 
 
11. (U) In the Turkish business community, there is a 
very wide range of opinion as to the effect of fully 
integrating textiles and apparel into the WTO system, 
ranging from dire warnings of as many as two million 
jobs to be lost to others which believe that the impact 
will be much more limited.  Embassy will report further 
on these prognoses in conjunction with the end of the 
quota system. 
EDELMAN