US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN1470

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 001470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO ECA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2014 
TAGS: EAIR, ECON, EFIN, PINR, PREL, SENV 
SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER PICKS HIS NEW CABINET 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James C. Kenny, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary and Comment.  On September 29, the Taoiseach 
(Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern announced a cabinet shuffle, 
anticipated since early summer.  The shuffle saw eight 
ministers switch portfolios, three members retain their 
positions, and four lower ranking officials join the Cabinet. 
  Ahern's goal is to strengthen his coalition's chances of 
re-election in 2007.  Despite the government's successes 
economically and as EU president, the government took a hit 
in the June local and EU elections.  Voters began to see the 
government as "uncaring" and to grow impatient at the pace of 
improvement in infrastructure and services following years of 
economic boom.  In announcing his new cabinet, Ahern said he 
would maintain the government's strong economic program, 
while seeking to improve infrastructure, health, and 
education.  The only foreign policy issue he mentioned is the 
Northern Ireland peace process, which he pledged to move 
forward, alongside the UK.  Five of the Ministers are former 
participants in the Department of State's International 
Visitor programs:  Mary Coughlan, Dick Roche, Dermot Ahern, 
Mary Harney, and Seamus Brennan.Comment:  The cabinet shuffle 
was done for domestic reasons and is not likely to lead to 
major changes in foreign policy.  Directors General at DFA 
told us they expect FM Dermot Ahern (no relation to the PM) 
to continue the government's current foreign policy.  His 
calendar will be driven by events, they suggest, not by 
personal agenda.  Thus, he joined the PM in meeting the Rev. 
Ian Paisley on September 30, and will then prepare for the 
GAERC in October.  DFA officials also say that decisions on 
Ireland's participation in EU battle groups have been on hold 
pending the cabinet re-shuffle.  We expect consistency in 
Irish foreign, defense, and economic policy, even as the PM 
seeks to find money on the margins to improve social services 
and infrastructure.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
-------------------- 
New Portfolios 
-------------------- 
 
The new cabinet is as follows: 
 
2. (U) Dermot Ahern: Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fianna Fail 
 
Ahern moves to Foreign Affairs from his position as Minister 
of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources.  He is 
considered well-versed on Northern Ireland issues, having 
represented Louth, a border county, in the Dil (Irish 
Parliament), since 1987.  On his first day in office, he will 
discuss Northern Ireland with Ian Paisley during the DUP 
leader,s first political visit to the Republic.  Ahern 
served as Government Chief Whip in 1991-92.  He received a 
junior ministerial portfolio as Minister of State at the 
Departments of Taoiseach and Defense in that same period. 
Ahern is sometimes mentioned as a possible future party 
leader.  He is not related to PM Ahern but is considered to 
be very close to the PM. 
 
3. (SBU) Brian Cowen: Minister of Finance, Fianna Fail 
 
Cowen,s move to Finance from Foreign Affairs was the least 
surprising of the Cabinet changes, having been rumored since 
former Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy was tapped in August 
to become EU Internal Market Commissioner.  A TD since 1984, 
the 44-year-old Cowen is widely believed to be PM Ahern,s 
preferred successor as party and government leader, and this 
appointment appears designed to round out his qualifications 
for those positions.  Formerly, he served as Minister of 
Labor, Minister of Health, and Minister for Transport, 
Energy, and Communications.  He became Foreign Affairs 
Minister in 2000 and was widely lauded for his handling of 
the Irish EU presidency, including his role in negotiations 
on the EU constitution.  At Finance, a projected year-end 
budget surplus will position Cowen to enhance social services 
as part of Fianna Fail,s bid to fashion a more compassionate 
political image.  Cowen is currently being coached by Irish 
economist, Alan Gray, and is positioning himself to become a 
future Taoiseach. 
 
4. (C) Willie O'Dea : Minister of Defense, Fianna Fail 
 
O,Dea, from Limerick, is a former Minister of State at the 
Department of Justice, Equality & Law Reform with special 
responsibility for Equality Issues.  He was first elected to 
the Dail in 1982.  His political career includes appointments 
as Minister of State at the Department of Education in 1997, 
Minister of State at the Department of Justice and Health in 
1993 and Minister of State at the Department of Justice in 
1992-93.  O,Dea has virtually no experience in 
Defense-related issues.  However, he is a popular politician. 
 His appointment reflects his vote-getting potential, not his 
defense expertise.  The United Kingdom is very disappointed 
by this appointment. 
5. (U) Micheal Martin: Minister of Enterprise, Trade and 
Employment, Fianna Fail 
 
Martin, a former Minister of Education, served as Health 
Minister since 2000. A 2003 poll showed Martin as the most 
popular choice among voters to succeed PM Ahern, though Ahern 
appears to favor new Finance Minister Cowen.  Martin is 
considered a media hound and is best known for having pushed 
through the world,s first country-wide ban on smoking in 
enclosed public places, including pubs and restaurants, in 
2004.  Earlier in 2001, he introduced a national strategy to 
improve public health services, but the health care system 
remains plagued by hospital waiting lists, a bloated 
administrative bureaucracy, and inadequate insurance 
coverage.  Martin has represented Cork in the Dail since 1989 
and is the first Fianna Fail Minister of Enterprise, Trade, 
and Employment since that year.  His appointment to this key 
ministry gives his career a boost. 
 
6. (SBU) Mary Harney: Minister of Health and Children, Deputy 
Prime Minister (Tanaiste), Progressive Democrats 
 
Harney retains the office of Deputy Prime Minister 
(Tanaiste), but moves to the Health Department from her 
previous post as Minister for Enterprise, Trade and 
Employment.  If the government as a whole needs to show the 
Irish that it has a heart, Harney's Progressive Democrats 
need to do so even more; hence, her move from an economic 
ministry to a social ministry.  Political commentators see 
Harney,s move to Health as a serious political gamble.  She 
has only two years to demonstrate change in a dysfunctional 
health care system.  If she fails, Fianna Fail can let her 
take the blame; if she succeeds, she will have to share 
credit with Fianna Fail.  An Embassy contact suggested that 
the hospital hardships encountered by Harney,s disabled 
mother may have increased the Tanaiste's personal interest in 
the health portfolio.  She is a parliamentary veteran, having 
entered the Irish senate in 1977 as its youngest ever member 
at age 24.  In 1985, she left Fianna Fil and helped to set 
up a new right-of center political party, the Progressive 
Democrats (PD).  In 1989, she led the PDs into the first of 
several coalitions with Fianna Fil and later served as 
Minister of State for the Environment. 
 
7. (U) Mary Coughlan: Minister for Agriculture and Food, 
Fianna Fail 
 
Coughlan is the first woman to hold the agriculture 
portfolio, a surprise appointment given the traditionally 
conservative nature of the farming sector.  She was appointed 
Minister for Social and Family Affairs in 2002 after serving 
as Minister of State at the Department of Arts, Heritage, 
Gaeltacht and the Islands.  She has represented the 
electorate of Donegal South West since 1987. 
 
8. (SBU) Martin Cullen: Minister of Transport, Fianna Fail 
 
Cullen moves from the Department of Environment and Local 
Government, where he had served as Minister since 2002.  He 
was first elected as a Progressive Democrat TD for Waterford 
in 1987.  He lost his Dil seat in 1989, but returned to the 
Dil in 1992, before switching to Fianna Fil in 1993. 
Cullen faced criticism for his Department,s failed attempt 
to introduce electronic voting in June, a misstep that, 
according to the September 28 Comptroller General,s report, 
cost taxpayers euro 50 million.  He has a tendency to 
grandstand for political purposes, as was likely the case in 
mid-September, when he publicly asked for U.S. assurances 
that a maritime plutonium shipment would not pass through 
Irish waters.  In his new portfolio he will face questions 
about the prospects for Aer Lingus, privatization, and for 
liberalizing the U.S.-Ireland civil aviation agreement. 
 
9. (U) Mary Hanafin: Minister of Education and Science, 
Fianna Fail 
 
Hanafin was first elected to the Dail in 1997, representing 
Dun Laoghaire, a wealthy Dublin suburb.  In 2002, she was top 
female vote-getter in parliament and promoted that year to 
Chief Whip and Minister of State at the Department of 
Defense.  As Chief Whip, she was effective in maintaining 
party discipline.  She is a convent educated, former 
secondary school teacher. 
 
10. (SBU) Dick Roche: Minister of Environment and Local 
Government, Fianna Fail 
 
Roche, a Wicklow TD and former university lecturer, moves up 
to the Cabinet from his position as Minister of State for the 
EU at the Department of Foreign Affairs, where he earned high 
praise during the EU presidency.  Roche, along with Foreign 
Minister Cowen, led the Nice treaty referendum campaign in 
2003 and is credited with reversing the electorate,s 
rejection of Nice the previous year.  He is close to PM 
Ahern, having managed Ahern,s first, though unsuccessful, 
campaign for the leadership of Fianna Fail in the early 
1990,s.  At the Department of the Environment, he may face 
pressure to revisit the government,s decision in September 
not to impose taxes on carbon emissions, a move publicly 
criticized by leading Irish think-tanks.  Roche is a good 
friend to the US, and the UK is likewise pleased with this 
appointment. 
 
11. (U) Noel Dempsey: Minister for Communications, Marine and 
Natural Resources, Fianna Fail 
 
Dempsey most recently served in the Cabinet as Minister for 
Education and Science, where he pressed unsuccessfully to 
reintroduce college-level tuition, a politically unpopular 
move.  He was Chief Whip in 1993-94 and was named Minister 
for the Environment and Local Government in 1997.  He has 
represented the constituency of Meath in the Dil since 1987. 
 
 
12. (U) Seamus Brennan: Minister of Social and Family 
Affairs, Fianna Fail 
 
Brennan's move is seen as a demotion from his position at 
Transport, where he served since 2002.  He reportedly desired 
to remain at Transport or take a new economic portfolio, but 
accepted Social and Family Affairs when it became evident, 
after tense September 29 meetings with the Taoiseach, that he 
might lose a Cabinet position altogether.  According to local 
economists, PM Ahern, a consensus-builder, took exception to 
Brennan,s brash dealings with the Irish police and with Aer 
Rianta, the airport union.  He was elected to the Dil in 
1981 and had previously served as Chief Whip and as Minister 
in the Departments of Tourism, Education, and Commerce. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Remaining Cabinet Members 
----------------------------------- 
 
13. (U) The following retained their cabinet seats: 
John O,Donoghue: Minister of Arts, Sports, Tourism, Fianna 
Fail 
Eamon O,Cuiv: Community Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Fianna 
Fail 
Michael McDowell: Justice, Equality, and Law Reform, 
Progressive Democrats. 
KENNY