US embassy cable - 01HARARE3240

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING 
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH 
 
REF: ABUJA 2253 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  THE OCTOBER 25 TO 27 VISIT BY 
REPRESENTATIVES OF SEVEN COMMONWEALTH (CW) COUNTRIES AND 
THE CW SECRETARY-GENERAL REVIEWED PROGRESS ON 
COMMITMENTS AGREED TO BY THE GOZ ON LAND REFORM, RULE OF 
LAW, AND ATTENDANT ISSUES AS OUTLINED IN THE ABUJA 
AGREEMENT OF SEPTEMBER 6 (REFTEL).  OUR GLEANINGS FROM 
DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS, AND SPECIFICALLY HARARE BASED CW 
DIPLOMATS WHO WERE INVOLVED IN THE VISIT, REVEAL GENERAL 
SKEPTICISM AMONG THE CW DELEGATION THAT THE GOZ HAS 
HONORED ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS.  GOZ ATTEMPTS TO STAGE- 
MANGE THE VISIT DID NOT SUCCEED, AND THE CW COMMITTEE 
HEARD THE VIEWS OF A BROAD RANGE OF ZIMBABWEANS.  THE 
VISIT HAD SEVERAL CONTENTIOUS MOMENTS, THE WORST DURING 
DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE.  THE 
COMPROMISE RESULTED IN A DOCUMENT THAT PLEASED NO ONE 
BUT ALLOWED BOTH SIDES TO CLAIM SOME DEGREE OF SUCCESS 
AND THUS KEEP THE ABUJA PROCESS ALIVE. 
 
2.  (C) POSITIVE OUTCOMES FOR THE CW INCLUDE CONTINUING 
THE DIALOGUE WITH THE GOZ AND VISIBLE ENGAGEMENT OF ITS 
OPPONENTS, RULE OF LAW ISSUES STILL ON THE AGENDA, AND 
AGREEMENT TO AN IMPENDING UNDP ASSESSMENT OF LAND REFORM 
AS A MEANS OF MONITORING ABUJA COMPLIANCE.  FOR ITS 
PART, THE GOZ AVOIDED FURTHER ISOLATION FROM THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, RESISTED EFFORTS TO PIN IT DOWN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03240  01 OF 04  291644Z 
ON POLITICAL/ELECTORAL ISSUES, AND MAINTAINED ITS 
DUBIOUS INTERPRETATION THAT THE GOZ OWNS LAND ONCE THE 
LAND IS LISTED AND THEREFORE IS OPERATING WITHIN THE 
RULE OF LAW.  FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THE THREE-DAY 
WALTZ AROUND ABUJA FELL SHORT IN A NUMBER OF AREAS, 
INCLUDING THE CRUCIAL ISSUE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION.  WE 
RECOMMEND THAT THE DEPARTMENT FOLLOW UP WITH NIGERIAN 
PRESIDENT OBASANJO, THE GODFATHER OF THE ABUJA 
AGREEMENT, IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK ABOUT OUR CONCERNS 
THAT ILLEGAL LAND INVASIONS, VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
VIOLATIONS, AND A VIABLE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT 
BEEN SUCCESSFULLY ADDRESSED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------- 
INSIDERS' VIEWS OF ABUJA II 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) CANADIAN DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER RON WILLSON 
AND UK COUNTERPART DIANNE CORNER DEBRIEFED G-8 DEPUTIES 
OCTOBER 29 ON THE ABUJA II MEETING IN HARARE.  THEY 
DESCRIBED A DISORGANIZED AND SOMETIMES CONTENTIOUS 
VISIT.  WILLSON, WHO ADMITTED THAT CANADIAN DEPUTY 
MINISTER KILGOUR HAD TAKEN THE HARDEST LINE WITH GOZ, 
TERMED THE MEETING "NOT A RESOUNDING SUCCESS" WITH 
"MINIMAL RESULTS," A CHARACTERIZATION THAT CORNER 
SECONDED.  WILLSON SAID THAT THE VISIT ALMOST FOUNDERED 
IN ITS FINAL STAGES WHEN THERE WAS A NEAR BREAKDOWN ON 
THE NEGOTIATED COMMUNIQUE OVER SEVERAL ISSUES.  AS A 
RESULT OF THIS THE CW DID NOT GET THE FOLLOWING: 
 
-- A MENTION IN THE COMMUNIQUE OF ELECTIONS OBSERVERS, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03240  01 OF 04  291644Z 
AGAINST WHICH THE GOZ SIDE ARGUED OVER THE ISSUE OF 
SOVEREIGNTY. 
 
-- AN INVITATION FROM THE GOZ FOR CW ELECTION OBSERVERS, 
AS REQUIRED IN CW GUIDELINES.  THE GOZ SIDE DECLINED A 
SUGGESTION THAT THE GOZ "ASK THE CW TO REQUEST THE GOZ 
TO PERMIT CW PARTICIPATION." 
 
-- NO CW MONITORING MECHANISM WAS AGREED, LEAVING ABUJA 
FOLLOW UP AT THE CW MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHERE THE GOZ 
APPEARS TO PREFER IT, ALTHOUGH A NOVEMBER 14 UNDP 
MISSION WAS AGREED TO "HELP THE GOZ TO FULLY COMPLY" 
WITH ABUJA. 
 
4.  (C) WILLSON NOTED THAT THERE IS POSSIBLE FUTURE 
MOVEMENT ON SOME OF THESE POINTS.  LEGAL AFFAIRS 
MINISTER CHINAMASA HAD INFORMED THE CW DELEGATION THAT 
HE WOULD BE PRESENTING TO THE CABINET WITHIN THREE WEEKS 
A POLICY PAPER THAT WOULD DEFINE THE ROLES OF 
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS AND DOMESTIC ELECTION 
MONITORS.  HOWEVER, CHINAMASA WAS EVASIVE WHEN CW 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2605 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03240  02 OF 04  291644Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    VC-00 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   NSAE-00  CAEX-01  SSO-00 
      SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------36D0D1  291645Z /38 
O 291539Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0145 
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03240  02 OF 04  291644Z 
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH 
 
SECRETARY-GENERAL MACKINNON REQUESTED SPECIFIC DETAILS 
 
SIPDIS 
ON THE PRE-ELECTORAL TIME FRAME IN WHICH 
OBSERVERS/MONITORS COULD BEGIN THEIR WORK.  (WILLSON 
ADDED IN AN ASIDE THAT THE NEW CANADIAN HIGH 
COMMISSIONER TO ABUJA HAD RAISED THE ISSUE OF CW 
OBSERVERS FOR ZIMBABWE WITH OBASANJO LAST WEEK DURING 
THE PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS.  OBASANJO REPLIED THAT 
HE HAD RECENTLY SPOKEN TO MUGABE, WHO HAD TOLD HIM THAT 
HE DID NOT WANT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS BUT MIGHT 
CONSIDER A COMMONWEALTH OBSERVATION INITIATIVE.) 
 
5.  (C) CORNER NOTED THAT THE CW HAD ALSO PREVAILED ON 
SEVERAL POINTS.  COINCIDENT WITH THE CW VISIT, THE GOZ 
HAD AGREED TO AN ASSESSMENT VISIT BY A UNDP TEAM THAT 
WOULD EXAMINE THE LAND REFORM SITUATION ON THE GROUND. 
IN A MEETING WITH THE CW DELEGATION, UNDP RESREP VICTOR 
ANGELO HAD AGREED THAT UNDP WOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE THE 
MONITORING MECHANISM FOR THE ABUJA AGREEMENT (IN LIEU OF 
A CW MECHANISM) THAT WOULD LOOK AT ALL ASPECTS OF THE 
AGREEMENT, NOT SIMPLY LAND REFORM.  CORNER CAUTIONED 
THAT (TO THE BEST OF HER KNOWLEDGE) THE GOZ AND UNDP HAD 
NOT YET MUTUALLY AGREED UPON TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE 
ASSESSMENT.  (ANGELO INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE 
ASSESSMENT TEAM WILL ARRIVE ON NOVEMBER 14.)  CORNER 
ADDED THAT DESPITE INITIAL GOZ ATTEMPT TO PACK THE 
SCHEDULE WITH ITS SUPPORTERS, THE CW DELEGATION HAD 
ULTIMATELY MET WITH AND HEARD THE CONCERNS OF 
REPRESENTATIVES OF CIVIL SOCIETY, INDEPENDENT 
JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03240  02 OF 04  291644Z 
 
6.  (U) IN ADDITION TO INITIAL MEETINGS WITH MUGABE, 
CABINET MEMBERS, AND THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON LAND 
REFORM, THE CW COMMITTEE RECEIVED REPORTS FROM THE 
FOLLOWING GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS. 
 
-- COUNCIL OF CHIEFS 
-- COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION 
ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE 
-- INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION 
-- UNDPO 
-- ZIMBABWE LIBERATION WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION 
-- MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
-- ZANU-PF 
-- ZANU (NDONGA) 
-- CHURCH LEADERS 
-- NANGO (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF NGO'S), REPRESENTING 
AMANI TRUST, ZIMBABWE HUMAN RIGHTS FOUNDATION, 
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP, NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL 
ASSEMBLY, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL, CRISIS IN 
ZIMBABWE, INDIGENOUS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTER, 
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION, ZIMBABWE TOBACCO 
MERCHANTS ASSOCIATION 
-- STATE AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES 
-- THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION 
(GAPWUZ, THE UNION FOR COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS, MISSED 
ITS MEETING WHEN THE SCHEDULE FELL HOURS BEHIND AND 
GAPWUZ REPRESENTATIVES WANDERED OFF.) 
 
------------ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03240  02 OF 04  291644Z 
ATMOSPHERICS 
------------ 
 
7.  (C) CORNER AND WILLSON OBSERVED THAT THE GOVERNMENT 
SOUGHT TO MANIPULATE THE PROGRAM BY MONOPOLIZING THE 
GROUP'S TIME AND THROUGH PURPOSEFUL DISORGANIZATION OF 
THE ENTIRE EVENT.  THE MFA DID NOT PRESENT THE CW 
EMBASSIES INVOLVED A PROPOSED SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS UNTIL 
WEDNESDAY EVENING, JUST BEFORE INITIAL CALLS ON GOZ 
OFFICIALS WERE TO BEGIN.  ONLY FIVE OF THE MORE THAN A 
DOZEN NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS REQUESTED BY THE CW 
FIGURED ON THE LIST, LEADING TO A FLURRY OF LAST-MINUTE 
NEGOTIATIONS AND CAPITULATION OF THE GOZ TO MEETING WITH 
CIVIL SOCIETY AND VISITS TO A CFU-CHOSEN FARM.  IN THE 
INITIAL MEETINGS WITH GOZ OFFICIALS, FOREIGN MINISTER 
MUDENGE POINTEDLY ATTEMPTED TO LIMIT DISCUSSION TO LAND. 
NOT SURPRISINGLY, SEVERAL OF THE SESSIONS INVOLVING NON- 
GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS LED TO ACRIMONIOUS EXCHANGES WITH 
GOZ REPRESENTATIVES.  CORNER SAID THAT FOREIGN MINISTER 
MUDENGE HAD SHOWN REMARKABLE COMPOSURE IN THE FACE OF 
SHARP CRITICISM OF ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP BY THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2607 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03240  03 OF 04  291644Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    VC-00 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   NSAE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------36D0D7  291645Z /38 
O 291539Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0146 
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03240  03 OF 04  291644Z 
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH 
 
REPRESENTATIVES OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY GROUPS. 
 
------------------------- 
POTEMKIN FARMS DISMANTLED 
------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) WILLSON DESCRIBED A SECOND GOZ COMPROMISE ON 
SITE VISITS TO FARMS OUTSIDE OF HARARE.  THE INITIAL GOZ 
PLAN TO HELICOPTER ONLY THE HEADS OF VISITING 
DELEGATIONS TO FARMS OF THE GOZ'S CHOICE WAS ALTERED TO 
ALLOW A VISIT BY HEADS OF DELEGATION TO ONE FARM OF GOZ 
CHOICE AND A SECOND CHOSEN BY THE CW COMMITTEE ITSELF. 
WILLSON SAID THAT THE VISIT TO THE FIRST FARM IN 
MASVINGO WAS PROBABLY INTENDED BY THE GOZ TO SHOWCASE 
PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE BETWEEN COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND 
THOSE RESETTLED FROM COMMUNAL LANDS.  THE FARMER IN 
QUESTION, DESCRIBED BY HIS NEIGHBORS AS A GENTLE 
INDIVIDUAL OVERWHELMED BY THE OCCUPATION AND DESTRUCTION 
OF HIS FARM, HAD REPORTEDLY BEEN WARNED IN ADVANCE BY 
THE GOZ TO TAKE A SOFT LINE.  HE DID, BUT THEN ASKED TO 
YIELD THE FLOOR TO A NEIGHBOR CHOSEN AS SPOKESMAN BY THE 
LOCAL COMMERCIAL FARMER COMMUNITY.  MUDENGE AND LANDS 
MINISTER MADE OBJECTED STRONGLY TO THIS, LEADING TO AN 
EXCHANGE WITH CANADIAN DEPUTY MINISTER KILGOUR AND 
PLACING NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO, CHAIRMAN OF 
THE CW COMMITTEE, IN AN AWKWARD SPOT. 
 
9.  (C) IF POSSIBLE, WILLSON RELATED, THE SECOND FARM 
ISIT WAS EVEN WORSE FROM THE GOZ PERSPECTIVE.  WHEN THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03240  03 OF 04  291644Z 
CW HEADS OF DELEGATION FINALLY HELICOPTERED IN, OTHER 
MEMBERS OF THE DELEGATIONS HAD ALREADY BEEN THERE FOR 
TWO HOURS.  THEY HAD ALREADY TOURED THE BURNT-OUT HOUSES 
OF FARM WORKERS, VISITED THE VANDALIZED HOME OF A FARM 
FAMILY NOW LIVING IN HARARE, AND HEARD THE RESETTLED 
FARMER OCCUPIERS ADMIT THAT TWO OF THEIR NUMBERS 
REPORTEDLY KILLED DURING THE TAKEOVER HAD ACTUALLY 
PERISHED WHEN THEY ROLLED OVER A PURLOINED TRACTOR.  UK 
JUNIOR MINISTER BARONESS AMOS SUMMED UP THE VISIT BY 
STATING THAT SHE FOUND IT STRANGE THAT 82 SETTLERS HAD 
DISPLACED 265 FARM WORKERS. 
 
10.  (C) WILLSON SAID THAT THE FARM VISITS HAD REVEALED 
THE STARTLING FACT THAT THE GOZ BELIEVES THAT FARMS 
GAZETTED UNDER SECTION 5 OF THE FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT 
PLAN COME UNDER IMMEDIATE GOZ OWNERSHIP.  IN RESPONSE, 
THE CANADIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER READ DIRECTLY FROM A GOZ 
POLICY DOCUMENT DESCRIBING THE LAND REFORM PLAN THAT 
STATES: "RESETTLEMENT CANNOT TAKE PLACE AFTER A SECTION 
5 ORDER."  MUDENGE AND MADE INSISTED THAT THIS LANGUAGE 
IS MINISTRY OF INFORMATION PHRASEOLOGY AND HAS NO LEGAL 
STANDING. 
 
------------------------------------- 
NO CW DIVISION, BUT A WEAK COMMUNIQUE 
------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) CORNER DISCOUNTED PRESS REPORTS IN THE GOZ 
MEDIA THAT THE CW DELEGATION HAD SPLIT ALONG 
AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN LINES.  SHE OBSERVED THAT SOME OF 
THE GOZ-FRONT CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS HAD MADE "LOOPY" 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03240  03 OF 04  291644Z 
STATEMENTS ABOUT REDRESSING HISTORICAL INEQUITIES THAT 
SEEMED TO STRIKE A RESONANT NOTE WITH THE AFRICAN 
DELEGATIONS.  DESPITE THIS, NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE 
COMMUNIQUE HAD REVEALED A GENERALLY UNITED FRONT, WITH 
THE CW DELEGATES PUSHING THE ZIMBABWEANS ON ELECTION 
OBSERVATION, LAWFUL LAND REFORM AND SIMILAR POINTS. 
WILLSON OBSERVED THAT THE NIGERIANS, WHO HAD THE MOST 
FACE TO LOSE IF THE VISIT FAILED, HAD SUBMITTED AN 
INITIAL COMMUNIQUE THAT WAS TOO SOFT AND SEEMED TO 
RATCHET BACK REQUIRED GOZ ACTIONS AS AGREED TO AT THE 
ABUJA MEETING.  HE POINTED OUT THAT THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE 
WAS SOMEWHAT STRONGER, BUT NOT TO THE POINT THAT THE GOZ 
HAD REFUSED TO ACCEPT THE TEXT.  THE CANADIAN AND 
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONERS WERE SATISFIED THAT THE 
COMMUNIQUE HAD HIGHLIGHTED THE CRITICAL DIFFERENCES OVER 
WHAT IS RULE OF LAW WITH RESPECT TO LAND OCCUPATION 
ISSUES, ALTHOUGH NO RESOLUTION OF DIFFERENCES WAS 
REACHED. 
 
12.  (C) COMMENT.  TO SOME DEGREES, ALL SIDES ARE 
CLUTCHING AT STRAWS TO KEEP THE ABUJA PROCESS ALIVE.  WE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2608 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03240  04 OF 04  291644Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00 
      WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    VC-00    TEDE-00 
      INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------36D0DA  291645Z /38 
O 291539Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0147 
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03240  04 OF 04  291644Z 
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH 
 
REMAIN CONCERNED, HOWEVER, THAT THE LAUDABLE DESIRE TO 
KEEP THE PATIENT ALIVE SHOULD NOT OVERSHADOW THE FACT 
THAT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IS MEANINGLESS UNLESS IT CAN BE 
IMPLEMENTED.  GIVEN THE GOZ RECORD AT BACKTRACKING AND 
STALLING, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT THEY HAVE THE 
POLITICAL WILL TO COOPERATE WITH THE UNDP'S EFFORT TO 
MONITOR THE PROVISIONS OF THE AGREEMENT.  AT THIS POINT, 
OBASANJO IS CERTAINLY THE INDIVIDUAL WITH GREATEST 
LEVERAGE OVER MUGABE AND THE GOZ.  WE THUS RECOMMEND 
THAT THE DEPARTMENT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIS VISIT TO 
WASHINGTON THIS WEEK TO STRESS THAT THE PROBLEMS OF 
UNLAWFUL LAND SEIZURE, CONTINUED LAND AND PRE-ELECTION 
VIOLENCE, AND STONEWALLING ON INTERNATIONAL ELECTION 
OBSERVERS MUST BE DEALT WITH CONCRETELY IF WE ARE TO 
MITIGATE THE GROWING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE. 
 
SULLVIAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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