US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN2166

UNCLAS YEREVAN 002166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, IZ, AM 
SUBJECT:  GOAM SUPPORT FOR IRAQ MISSION UNLIKELY TO 
UNRAVEL 
 
REF:  YEREVAN 2018 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) GOAM commitment to deploying troops in Iraq 
remains strong despite recent media statements and 
public opinion against the mission.  Opposition groups 
have not strongly attacked plans for deployment, and 
Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
officials continue to make consistent statements in 
support of the mission, indicating unwavering resolve 
within the GOAM.  The GOAM sees clear benefits from 
participation that can only be realized through troop 
deployment.  End Summary. 
 
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PUBLIC DISSENT 
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2. (SBU) Immediately after Armenian President Kocharian 
signed an agreement with the president of Poland laying 
the groundwork for deployment on September 6, several 
opposition newspapers criticized the decision (reftel). 
Articles cited a disgruntled general's criticism of the 
deployment and several editors worried that the move 
would negatively affect Armenia's relations with 
Russia, jeopardize Armenian national security, and 
endanger ethnic Armenians in Iraq.  Several small NGOs 
such as "Soldiers' Mothers" and "Republican Women's 
Council" have since stated their opposition to 
deployment, and on October 1, the news weekly "Iravunk" 
published an informal (small and unscientific) public 
opinion survey in which six percent of Armenians stated 
their support of Armenian deployment to Iraq, while 
sixty percent stated their strong opposition. 
 
3. (SBU) Despite the initial media outcry, only one of 
the major opposition figures, Artashes Geghamian, 
issued a statement against the deployment at the time 
the agreement with Poland became public, and none of 
the opposition leaders has made public statements on 
the issue since.  The disgruntled general has softened 
his public statements, and while some newspapers 
continue to question why Russia was not consulted in 
this matter, their coverage has become less shrill and 
even, on occasions, balanced. 
 
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STAYING THE COURSE 
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4. (SBU) In a September 30 interview, Defense Minister 
Serzh Sargsian reasoned that if the GOAM wants Western 
military assistance and argues that this assistance 
must be equally distributed among the nations of the 
South Caucasus, then Armenia must shoulder an equal 
burden along with Georgia and Azerbaijan by deploying 
troops in Iraq and possibly Afghanistan.  He further 
sought to reassure the public that Russia remains 
Armenia's most important international partner and key 
to Armenian national defense planning.  These arguments 
are consistent with views expressed to us over the past 
month by diverse sectors of the GOAM including the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense. 
This unity of message within the GOAM usually indicates 
a strong resolve at the highest levels. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5. (SBU) The GOAM perceives a genuine need to send 
troops to Iraq.  The MFA NATO desk officer has often 
stated his concern that the West too often views 
Armenia as a friend of Russia and Iran at the expense 
of Western relations.  He fears that Armenia would be 
"left behind" as Georgia and Azerbaijan integrate more 
closely with the Europe.  Along with recent agreements 
to pursue an Individual Partnership Plan with NATO, the 
GOAM sees cooperation in Iraq as an important means to 
remain politically linked to the West. 
GODFREY