US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3070

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CNE DISCARDS FRAUD CHALLENGES 
 
REF: CARACAS 2840 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) found the 
Coordinadora Democratica's challenge of the results of the 
August 15 recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez 
inadmissible on September 23 and said the matter should be 
taken to the Supreme Court instead.  CNE Director Jorge 
Rodriguez nonetheless then attempted to refute the 
opposition's case, point by point, in a national broadcast on 
September 24.  Rodriguez accused the opposition of trying to 
discredit the CNE and warned that from now on accusers who 
cannot present proof of CNE wrongdoing could face reprisal in 
court.  On September 27, pro-opposition CNE Vice President 
Ezequiel Zamora resigned, citing differences of opinion with 
the pro-Chavez majority on the board and noting especially 
his disagreement with the handling of the recall referendum. 
GOV supporters charged that Zamora's resignation is part of 
an opposition plot to delay the October 31 regional 
elections.  Legal experts expect the Supreme Court to name a 
replacement for Zamora, though for the time being the CNE can 
continue to function with the four remaining members.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Rodriguez Lashes Out 
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2. (U)  Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) on 
September 23 found inadmissible the Coordinadora 
Democratica's administrative appeal to the results of the 
August 15 presidential recall referendum.  The Coordinadora 
had challenged the results citing irregularities in the 
electoral registry and fraud on election day (ref).  Despite 
refusing to admit the complaint, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez 
presented arguments against the Coordinadora's claims on 
September 24 in a national broadcast carried obligatorily on 
every television and radio station ("cadena").  The electoral 
registry used for the recall was legal, Rodriguez asserted, 
and claimed that the time to object to it was 30 days prior 
to election day.  Rodriguez also repudiated the opposition's 
claims of GOV tampering with electoral software and data 
transmission, claiming that Coordinadora representatives were 
allowed to audit the voting machines beforehand.  Rodriguez 
argued that the statistical analysis presented by the NGO 
Sumate used only exit polls that agreed with their premise 
and not polls performed by other pollsters. 
 
3. (U) Rodriguez said that the CNE had adequately addressed 
the opposition's assertions.  Rodriguez warned that from now 
on anyone who makes allegations of impropriety against the 
CNE not supported by solid evidence would be taken to 
"national or international" court, if necessary.  Rodriguez 
specifically mentioned Sumate representative Maria Corina 
Machado, the Coordindaora's fraud report author Tulio 
Alvarez, and professors Ricardo Hausmann and Roberto Rigobon, 
who performed the statistical analysis used by Sumate. 
Rodrgiuez's broadcast used splashy production techniques and 
tight close-ups during dramatic moments.  His presentation of 
the opposition's allegations tended to be incomplete.  He 
also referred at times to absurd rumors that were not alleged 
in the Coordinadora's report, such as the use of Cuban 
satellites to intercept electoral data transmissions. 
 
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Alvarez Fights Back 
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4. (U) Tulio Alvarez, who led the team of 44 people who 
compiled the Coordinadora's appeal, told reporters on 
September 25 that Rodriguez had not refuted any of the 
opposition's charges.  Alvarez said Rodriguez's broadcast, in 
fact, confirmed two allegations:  that some areas of 
Venezuela have more registered voters than inhabitants and 
that the voting machines are bi-directional.  Alvarez said 
the CNE board had not followed proper procedures by rejecting 
the Coordinadora's appeal out-of-hand without formally 
opening an investigation.  Alvarez asserted this proved that 
 
the CNE is subordinated to President Hugo Chavez.  He called 
on the two pro-opposition directors of the CNE, Ezequiel 
Zamora and Sobella Mejias, to resign.  Alvarez said he plans 
to issue a final report of the Coordinadora's allegations on 
October 15. 
 
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Pro-Opposition CNE Vice President Zamora Resigns 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5. (U) On September 27, pro-opposition CNE Vice President 
Ezequiel Zamora presented his resignation to Supreme Court 
(TSJ) President Ivan Rincon.  Zamora based his resignation on 
the CNE's failure to carry out a transparent and efficient 
electoral process on August 15.  He said the process was 
marred by excessive waits in line and inadequate auditing 
practices.  Zamora also decried the systematic replacement of 
CNE technicians with political sympathizers of the 
government, saying it had led to a loss of the CNE's 
institutional integrity.  Zamora noted growing differences of 
opinion between him and the three pro-Chavez directors, who 
he said had become inflexible.  Zamora said he had not 
resigned immediately after the referendum because he had no 
proof of fraud.  He said he also believed he could convince 
the CNE board to revise the voting process for the October 31 
regional elections, but he now discounts that possibility. 
Separately, pro-opposition CNE Director Sobella Mejias 
announced she would not resign so as not to "surrender space" 
to the GOV. 
 
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Chavez Supporter Charge Conspiracy 
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6. (U) William Lara, a National Assembly Deputy and leader of 
Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR), called Zamora's 
resignation part of an opposition plot to discredit the CNE 
and delay the regional elections, which, Lara added, the 
opposition is sure to lose.  National Assembly Vice President 
Ricardo Gutierrez (of the pro-Chavez Podemos party) defended 
the CNE majority, which he said had acted democratically and 
with moral authority.  Minister of Interior and Justice Jesse 
Chacon said Zamora's leaving was expected and quipped that 
Zamora would probably end up as campaign manager of 
Coordinadora leader Enrique Mendoza, who is running for 
re-election as governor of Miranda State.  CNE President 
Francisco Carrasquero told reporters on September 28 that if 
there were irregularities in the CNE, then Zamora was party 
to them as he signed on to 90 percent, he claimed, of the 
CNE's decisions. 
 
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Moving On 
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7. (U) According to the constitution, the CNE should have 
been named by the National Assembly, but the latter 
deadlocked on the issue in 2003.  As a result, the TSJ's 
constitutional chamber found the Assembly "in omission" and 
proceeded to name the members.  CNE legal advisor Andres 
Brito recommended to the board that Zamora's replacement also 
be named by the constitutional chamber rather than submit the 
question to the National Assembly, according to press 
reports.  The law provides for the temporary incorporation of 
one of Zamora's two alternates while awaiting TSJ action, but 
pro-Chavez politicians have already scuttled the idea. 
Zamora's two alternates, Miriam Kornblith and Carolina 
Jaimes, are outspoken critics of the CNE's pro-GOV majority. 
An effort to incorporate Kornblith several months ago when 
Zamora became ill was similarly rejected. 
 
8. (U) The CNE board minus Zamora proceeded on September 28 
to approve the rules for tallying the results of the regional 
elections (Mejias abstained).  The rules reportedly maintain 
the same procedure as that used in the recall referendum, 
most notably, the transmission of voting machine results to 
the CNE before the machines print the tally sheets.  This was 
perhaps the most criticized feature of the recall referendum 
voting procedure, as the opposition alleges the voting 
machines may be re-programmed by the CNE server during the 
data transmission and thereby produce altered tally sheets. 
The CNE also agreed to not/not count the paper receipts, as 
the opposition has demanded. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) Zamora's departure will not have much impact on the 
CNE -- which needs only three directors for a quorum -- or on 
the political scene.  Zamora was the CNE's most experienced 
director though it is debatable whether he had any influence 
on the Chavista-dominated CNE.  The TSJ's selection to 
replace Zamora will probably tilt the CNE even further toward 
the government.  The CNE's summary dismissal of the 
Coordinadora's appeal, finished off by an obstinate Rodriguez 
on television, was probably designed to irritate opposition 
groups and distract them from the regional elections.  The 
three pro-Chavez CNE directors seem determined to press in 
spite of Zamora's departure, as demonstrated by its approval 
of controversial rules for the regional elections. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03070 - CONFIDENTIAL