US embassy cable - 04HARARE1636

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA, 
PETERSEN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KHANDAGLE, ETTI, MARX, HALMRAST- 
SANCHEZ 
AFR/SA FOR FLEURET, LOKEN, COPSON, MACNAIRN 
STATE/AF FOR NEULING 
BRUSSELS FOR PATRICIA LERNER 
PRETORIA FOR, DISKIN, HALE, SINK, REYNOLDS 
NAIROBI FOR SMITH, BROWN 
GABORONE FOR CASHION, BROWN 
ROME FOR FODAG FOR GAST 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI, Agriculture 
SUBJECT: IS GOZ PLANNING TO DOUBLE MAIZE PRODUCTION 
THIS COMING YEAR? 
 
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Summary 
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1.  For the 2004/2005 agricultural season the 
Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) seems to be planning for a 
substantial increase in maize (corn) production above 
its claimed 2.4 million MT for the recent harvest. 
Seed companies reported to USAID General Development 
Officer that the Government requested them to supply 75 
000 MT of maize seed, which would be enough to plant 3 
million hectares (the resulting yield would depend on 
various factors, such as rain and access to 
fertilizer).  Zimbabwe's largest maize harvest, 
planted on 1.6 million hectares in 1996, required 
40,000 MT of seed. 
 
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Seed Requirements 
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2.  Current unsubstantiated estimates by government put 
the amount of locally available maize seed at 55,000 
MT.  However, the seed companies can confirm the 
availability of only 45,000 MT in-country, and 
speculate that the additional reported 10,000 MT may 
represent production from Government seed farms and 
seed leftover from last year's purchases.  During the 
1990s, an average of 36,000 MT of maize seed was used 
per year.  Depending on the final availability of local 
seed, at least 20,000 MT of maize seed would need to be 
imported to reach the 75,000 MT the GOZ says it 
requires.   The estimated cost of procuring 55,000 MT 
of maize locally would be the equivalent of around 60 
million USD, with another 20 million USD needed to 
import the additional 20,000 MT of maize seed. 
 
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Seed Price Negotiations, Seed Availability 
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3.  Negotiations between government and seed companies 
over price are still ongoing.  As a result, seed maize 
is not readily available on the market.  If the 
government follows through with its request for 75,000 
MT of maize seed there will be very little maize seed 
available on the retail market for Zimbabwean farmers 
to purchase.  Seed companies plan to allocate most of 
their stocks for sale to the government, leaving only 
small amounts of seed for retailers. 
 
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 Seed Distribution 
------------------- 
 
4.  How the GOZ plans to deliver so much maize seed in 
Zimbabwe remains a mystery.  The GOZ will likely 
distribute the maize seed to the new resettlement areas 
where the land is considered the most productive. 
However, many farmers in these areas would prefer to 
plant a crop whose price is not controlled by the 
government.  Distribution of seed to the communal 
farmers through GOZ channels, rather than by private 
dealers, would pose logistic problems.  Vulnerable 
households who lack funds, draft power and 
transportation to GOZ seed distribution points may not 
benefit much from this massive seed infusion. 
 
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Conclusion 
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5.  The GOZ continues to insist that it does not need 
food aid and appears to be taking steps to ensure that 
this statement becomes reality, and not just rhetoric. 
If the government secures at least 50,000 MT of maize 
seed, which is a possibility, and if that amount is 
effectively distributed and planted under normal 
conditions with an average yield of .8 MT per hectare, 
it would produce a maize harvest of 1.6 million MT.  If 
these assumptions bear out, there would be enough 
domestic production of maize for the 2005 harvest to 
meet the country's food needs. Lack of transparency on 
the part of GOZ, however, leaves donors guessing as to 
the intended plans for the seed and given the number of 
things that could go wrong in this equation, the GOZ's 
luck will have to be very good indeed to reach these 
figures.  DELL