US embassy cable - 04QUITO2612

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002612 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: ELECTION NO THREAT TO FOL IN MANTA 
 
 
This message has been cleared by AmConsul Guayaquil. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  A pre-electoral visit to the city of 
Manta and Manabi provincial capital Portoviejo confirmed that 
the incumbent mayor of Manta, who has been largely supportive 
of the USG presence at the Forward Operating Location (FOL), 
is likely to be re-elected in local elections on October 17. 
Regardless, a variety of local and provincial officials, and 
other electoral observers confirmed that the USG-maintained 
FOL for counter-narcotics operations located on the 
Ecuadorian Air Force Base in Manta is not a campaign issue; 
the base enjoys broad support at the local level for its 
positive economic effects on the region.  End Summary. 
 
Background Information 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) PolCouns visited Manta and Portoviejo, in Manabi 
province, for meetings with local election officials, party 
officials, FOL commander, and independent electoral observer 
on September 23-24.  Manta is the second-largest city and 
recently-booming commercial hub of largely rural, 
agricultural Manabi province.  Manabi has a total of 914,841 
eligible voters (11% of the national total) who will visit 
3,112 voting stations on October 17 to select a provincial 
prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent), and from among 22 mayors 
(19 of whom are seeking re-election), six provincial 
councilors, 95 municipal councilors and 53 rural councils 
representing 185,175 rural voters.  Manta is Ecuador's 
second-largest Pacific port, after Guayaquil.  Manta's 
seaside location makes its port operations substantially 
cheaper than Guayaquil, causing economic competition and some 
recent political strains. 
 
3.  (SBU) Manta has experienced an economic boom since the 
GoE agreed in 1999 to host the USG-maintained FOL at Manta 
airport.  The city boasts has 131,166 eligible voters (second 
only to provincial capital Portoviejo, located 30 km. inland) 
which will be distributed among 465 voting stations. 
Political power in Manabi is divided between the Social 
Christian Party (PSC), which currently controls three of 
seven Congressional seats and 11 of 22 municipal mayors, 
including Manta's; the National Action Institutional Renewal 
Party (PRIAN), with two Congressional seats; and the 
Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE), which currently controls 
the provincial prefect and 5 mayors.  The Popular Democracy 
Party (DP) has 3 mayors and the last of Manabi's seven seats 
in the national Congress.  PRIAN presidential candidate 
Alvaro Noboa swept Manabi (with 375,052 votes to Gutierrez' 
180,895) in the second round of the 2002 presidential 
election.  Gutierrez' ruling Patriotic Society Party (PSP) is 
represented in Manabi by Governor Virginia Garcia.  Garcia, 
who took office in June, is Gutierrez' fourth appointee to 
the post; a previous appointee, Cesar Fernandez, is currently 
on trial for his alleged involvement in narco-trafficking. 
Garcia told PolCouns the PSP has hopes to win the prefect 
race and the Portoviejo mayorship. 
 
Electoral Preparation and Other Concerns 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Kausman Quinonez, President of the Manabi Provincial 
Electoral Tribunal (representing the PSC), told PolCouns on 
September 24 that arrangements for the elections were 
proceeding smoothly after initial glitches due to low 
participation rates by younger prospective poll workers.  New 
lists of poll workers targeting more stable professionals had 
recently been received from the national Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal.  Most of the newly-named poll workers will receive 
training by October 2, he said.  (SepTel reports on 
nationwide training of poll workers.) 
 
5.  (SBU) Jacqueline Terranova de Batallas, provincial 
coordinator for electoral watchdog NGO Citizen Participation, 
said local elections are traditionally not violent and she 
does not expect violence on election day.  Voters remain 
largely apathetic about the elections.  However, she reported 
one violent incident which took place in the pre-campaign 
period in Portoviejo in August, when a political party worker 
was injured in a fight with rivals. 
 
6.  (SBU) Terranova was more concerned about misuse of public 
funds for campaign purposes.  She provided photographic 
evidence (Manta municipal vehicles and earth-moving machines 
sporting campaign material and bumper-stickers in favor of 
the mayor's candidacy) and her public declarations and formal 
complaints against it.  She dismissed as unfounded 
accusations from a rival politician against Zambrano for 
using municipal resources to work on his personal property. 
She put a recent challenge from a rival candidate about 
Zambrano's Mexican university credential in the same 
category.  Press reported on September 24 that PRE 
Congressional deputy Mario Coello, alleged (without 
presenting proof) that several municipal councilors in Manta 
are implicated in drug trafficking.  According to Terranova, 
most candidates have been reluctant to reveal their sources 
and amounts of financing.  Citizens Participation will field 
90 observers throughout the province on election day. 
 
Incumbents Hopeful, but not Secure 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Congressional deputy Simon Bustamante (PSC) said he 
was perplexed why the PRIAN was so weak in Manabi after 
Alvaro Noboa's strong local showing in the second round of 
the presidential race in 2002.  The reason, he believed, was 
a combination of neglect and tactical errors by the PRIAN 
since then.  Noboa was expected to campaign in Portoviejo on 
September 26, but, according to Bustamante, had largely 
abandoned the province to the PSC and PRE.  Meanwhile, the 
PSC is confident it may pick up two more mayorships in 
upcoming elections, bringing its total to 13 of 22.  Manta 
mayor Jorge Zambrano is certain to be re-elected, he said. 
(Most people PolCouns consulted, including in informal street 
polling, said the same.)  Zambrano, seeking a third term, is 
credited with initiating (but not completing) major public 
works projects, including a new highway from the airport to 
the port and a major waterfront facelift. 
 
8.  (SBU) Terranova, however, cited a recent media poll 
showing Jose (Tucho) Velasquez of the Popular Democracy Party 
(DP), leading the race, followed by PRE candidate Ricardo 
Bowin, with Zambrano trailing in third.  She claimed that 
criticism of Zambrano for misuse of public funds was having 
an effect. 
 
9.  (SBU) Provincial prefect Humberto Guillen (PRE) is also 
expected by many to gain re-election.  Bustamante and 
Quinonez, however, boosted the chances of PSC challenger 
Mariano Zambrano (no relation to the Manta mayor), claiming 
recent private polls revealed Zambrano taking a lead of two 
points and Guillen falling dramatically.  Governor Garcia 
claimed the PSP candidate, Patricia Briones de Poggi, has a 
real chance of winning the prefecture.  Others predicted that 
the PSP would not win one elected position in the province. 
 
FOL Not An Issue 
---------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) All individuals consulted by PolCouns concurred 
that, to their knowledge, the issue of a U.S. presence at the 
FOL is neither unpopular nor a live political issue locally. 
Critics of the FOL at the national level are motivated by 
ideological concerns, they said; those critics are largely 
absent at the local level. 
 
11.  (SBU) Bustamante credited the USG presence with Manta's 
recent commercial development.  The new highway linking the 
airport with the maritime port will further strengthen Manta 
as a regional rival to Guayaquil.  The expanded runway and 
facilities at the airport have also raised hopes for 
international designation.  The FOL Commander confirmed that 
FOL fire-fighting capability will soon allow the airport to 
meet ICAO standards for an international airport. 
 
12.  (SBU) Quinonez said the FOL was not an electoral issue 
in Manabi and suggested that the current air of mystery 
surrounding the FOL works in USG interests.  Local people do 
not have direct access to the FOL, and assume that FOL 
personnel and vehicles may be monitoring local 
narco-activity.  This uncertainty acts as a brake on criminal 
activity in the area, he suggested.  For that reason, 
Quinonez recommended that the FOL not take actions to 
demystify its presence by opening the FOL to public events. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.  (SBU) It was encouraging to hear the strong level of 
support among local officials and others for the FOL presence 
and its positive spin-off effects on the region, although the 
FOL remains a live national political issue which we will 
review SepTel.  Given this situation, prospects are good for 
continued cooperation and local support for the FOL.  More 
generally, the situation in Manabi will test PSC strength in 
its coastal heartland. 
KENNEY