US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3050

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY EYES AGENDA 
 
REF: CARACAS 1817 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Venezuela's National Assembly (AN) reportedly plans to 
tackle four controversial bills in its new session that 
started September 17.  The Assembly's pro-Chavez majority 
will push to pass controversial laws on the media, a national 
police force, reform of the penal code, and the organization 
of municipal governments.  Selecting Supreme Court justices 
is likely to come later in the term.  The opposition will 
continue to resist the legislation, though the 86-79 split in 
favor of the GOV and the Assembly's internal rules make it 
likely that pro-Chavez legislators will make progress on some 
of the bills.  A trial balloon for 21 constitutional 
amendments, which included the possibility of indefinite 
re-election for President Hugo Chavez appears to have 
withered, but may yet be resurrected.  End summary. 
 
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New National Assembly Kicks Off 
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2. (C) Venezuela's National Assembly convened a new session 
on September 17.  Construyendo Pais deputy Leopoldo Martinez 
told PolCouns September 24 that the pro-GOV majority still 
has not agreed on its agenda although the legislators have 
met in three plenary sessions already.  Many pro-Chavez 
deputies, he said, are preoccupied with local wrangling over 
regional candidacies.  Martinez also noted that National 
Assembly president Francisco Ameliach is otherwise busy with 
his duties as the Fifth Republic Movement's Secretary 
General. 
 
3.  (C) Despite not having formulated a precise agenda, many 
deputies believe some of the most controversial bills will 
get priority attention.  Pro-GOV Deputy Hector Vargas 
(Podemos) told poloff September 22 the GOV's win in the 
recall referendum has given it momentum to press forward on 
contentious issues.  Causa R deputy Andres Velasquez told 
poloff September 21 the GOV majority will push four bills: 
 
-- The Law of Social Responsibility in Radio and Television, 
which would, among other things, impose penalties on private 
media for offenses against public officials; 
 
-- The Organic Law of the National Police Corps, which would 
subordinate all state and municipal police forces to the 
national government; 
 
-- The Organic Law of the Municipal Public Power, which would 
redefine the autonomy of mayors; and 
 
-- The Law of Reform of the Penal Code Law, which reportedly 
would penalize certain protests against government officials 
and place limits on public protests. 
 
4. (C) The AN's coordinating committee met on September 21 to 
set the session's agenda, but did not reach agreement. 
Speaking to reporters, Ameliach noted the importance of the 
Social Responsibility in Radio and Television Law, and 
mentioned the need to pass bills on housing and workers' 
severance benefits.  Martinez said Ameliach told him that 
they would schedule discussion of the media law an article at 
a time, focusing on areas where there was agreement. 
(Martinez, recalling the strong opposition to the media law, 
said Ameliach had no answer when he was asked which those 
might be.) National Assembly Vice President Ricardo Gutierrez 
(Podemos) said many of the priority bills will require action 
in committee before the plenary can consider them.  Gutierrez 
noted progress in getting the Penal Code Reform Law reported 
out of the Internal Policy Committee. 
 
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New Supreme Court Judges Still Pending 
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5. (C) After the passage of the Supreme Court (TSJ) law in 
May (ref), the National Assembly must now select the 12 new 
 
judges created by the law.  Vargas told poloff the GOV is in 
no hurry to name the judges and will likely wait until after 
the October 31 regional elections.  (Note:  National 
Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco Carrasquero, who 
will oversee the regional elections, is a candidate for one 
of the new seats on the bench.)  Ameliach asserted that 
naming the judges is a priority for the Assembly.  Martinez 
told Polcouns September 24 that fellow legislator Pedro 
Carreno (MVR) had polled other deputies to measure 
willingness to participate in the process of the naming of 
the judges.  Martinez said he and (unspecified) others had 
rejected the overture. 
 
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21 Constitutional Amendments:  No One Salutes 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) MVR Deputy Luis Velasquez Alvaray floated a proposal 
for 21 constitutional amendments on the first day of session, 
apparently responding to President Hugo Chavez's call on 
August 23 for fine-tuning of the 1999 Bolivarian 
Constitution.  Among other things, Velasquez proposed to 
eliminate the prohibition against the president running for 
re-election more than once, arguing that only "the people" 
are sovereign to decide whether a leader may stand again for 
election.  Velasquez also proposed raising the threshold for 
signatures needed to initiate recall referenda, from 20 to 30 
percent of the electoral registry. 
 
7. (C) Reaction to the proposal was universally negative. 
The opposition claimed it was evidence that Chavez wanted to 
impose an electorally-based dictatorship.  Pro-GOV deputies 
reacted just as harshly, publicly characterizing the proposal 
as unauthorized.  MVR Deputy Luis Tascon told poloff 
September 21 the proposal was an attempt to curry favor with 
Chavez, but instead had a destabilizing effect.  Vargas told 
poloff if he were in the opposition, he would call for the 
deputy's resignation, noting that Velasquez is also a 
candidate for a TSJ seat but had showed his bias on a 
critical constitutional issue.  Chavez himself denounced the 
proposal on September 19, claiming he had not been consulted 
and has no plans to perpetuate himself in office.  Velasquez 
withdrew the amendments, which he admitted were "politically 
inopportune," but asserted he had received assurances from 
Ameliach the Assembly would deal with constitutional 
amendments in 2005. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The National Assembly will probably continue to be 
complicated as it has been over the past year, principally 
due to polarization between the pro-GOV majority and the 
opposition.  The last important piece of legislation passed, 
the TSJ Law, required a change to internal rules -- six in 
four years -- and absurd legislative smithing before it could 
be approved.  If Chavez insists on passage of one of the 
contentious bills, as he did with the TSJ law, the Chavistas 
may again resort to parliamentary ramrod tactics.  They will, 
however, continue to be plagued by their own inefficiencies 
and perhaps even dissent in the case of the media law.  As 
such, the pro-Chavez legislators may make some progress in 
approving the bills, but easy approval will elude them. 
Velasquez Alvaray's constitutional amendments could have been 
a rogue operation (or secretly endorsed by Chavez), but the 
Chavistas' complaints dealt more with timing rather than 
substance.  It could foreshadow an attempt next year, after 
National Assembly elections in which the GOV is hoping to 
gain more seats, to amend the constitution to give Chavez the 
chance of another term beyond 2013. 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03050 - CONFIDENTIAL