US embassy cable - 04HARARE1624

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001624 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR BNEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE, D. TEITELBAUM 
USDOC FOR AMANDA HILLIGAS, TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW, 
PASS USTR FOR FLORIZELLE LISER, STATE PASS USAID FOR 
MARJORIE COPSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2009 
TAGS: ELAB, ECON, PGOV, EAID, ZI, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) 
SUBJECT: AMB DELL MEETS TOP LABOR LEADER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell for reason 1.5 d 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) During a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, (ZCTU) Secretary General 
Wellington Chibebe said President Mugabe was unlikely to 
leave office, even in 2008 and that the political opposition 
would likely lose the parliamentary elections badly, largely 
because of ZANU-PF,s control of rural areas.  ZCTU and other 
civil society groups therefore needed to adopt a different, 
longer-term approach to democracy.  For its part, ZCTU was 
attempting to organize agricultural workers as a first step 
in weakening the ruling party,s hold over the countryside. 
End Summary. 
 
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A Long-Term Approach Needed 
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2. (C) Chibebe said President Mugabe would be unlikely to 
leave office, even in 2008 and that the ZCTU and other civil 
society organizations therefore had to also plan long-term, 
not just post-2008 but post-Mugabe.  He added that Mugabe,s 
political acumen should not be underestimated.  ZANU-PF has a 
long-term plan and had successfully kept the opposition on 
the defensive by, among other things, taking the 
opposition,s ideas and implementing them as their own.  In 
contrast, the opposition lacked a long-term strategy and 
instead was constantly reacting to ZANU-PF initiatives. 
 
3. (C) Chibebe said that as a key part of their long-term 
strategy, the ZCTU was starting to organize farm workers in 
the traditionally ZANU-PF countryside. He claimed early 
success in reaching farm workers and asserted that his 
organization,s efforts would eventually loosen ZANU-PF,s 
grip on rural areas. He claimed ZCTU,s recruiting efforts 
had the support of local chiefs, despite their traditional 
ties to the ruling party. The ZCTU was nonetheless proceeding 
cautiously with its rural efforts to avoid detection and 
reprisal. In that regard, Chibebe said the GOZ clearly saw 
the ZCTU as an opponent and was determined to weaken it. 
Government tactics included infiltrating the union with 
informers, creating the rival Zimbabwe Federation of Trade 
Unions (ZFTU), breaking up labor rallies, and police 
harassment of labor activists. That said, the GOZ had to 
tread more lightly on labor leaders than other perceived 
opponents because of the International Labor Organization,s 
(ILO) close scrutiny. 
 
4. (C) Chibebe said that another component of the ZCTU,s 
plan for the future was to concentrate on raising its 
membership.  The ZCTU currently contained 36 unions with a 
total of 250,000 to 300,000 workers, which represented 25-30 
percent of the total formal Zimbabwean work force and workers 
in parastatal firms still formed the ZCTU,s backbone. 
However, the union was in the process of organizing some 1.2 
million workers in the informal sector, mostly in rural 
areas.  The Ambassador raised the issue of land reform, 
questioning why no one had challenged ZANU-PF on the failure 
of its land reform policy.  Chibebe agreed the opposition 
should be more outspoken, noting that ZANU-PF should not be 
allowed to claim as a success a policy that had hurt four 
times as many Zimbabweans as it had helped. 
 
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Comment 
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5. (C) Chibebe was confident, articulate and thoughtful.  His 
strategic vision is particularly impressive and it is 
encouraging that under Chibebe,s leadership the ZCTU is 
already thinking of ways to counter a likely ZANU-PF victory 
in the March elections, even as it struggles with the 
shorter-term political situation. One can,t help but think 
that, like Morgan Tsvangirai before him, the future leader of 
the political opposition might well come from the ZCTU. 
 
Dell