US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT3391

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003391 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR - KIRSCH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KU 
SUBJECT: KUWAITI RUMOR MILL ON OVERDRIVE REGARDING IMMINENT 
AL-SABAH LEADERSHIP CHANGE 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  After two days of intense public speculation 
about a possible change of senior Kuwaiti leadership, post is 
unable to confirm persistent rumors that Kuwaiti Prime 
Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad will be elevated to the post 
of Crown Prince or Amir.  The rumors followed a September 25 
article in a prominent Kuwait daily quoting a senior Kuwaiti 
ruling-family official who stated that important changes were 
forthcoming that would "herald a new era." Several rumor 
scenarios were circulating with the two most prominent 
promoting Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad to the position of Amir in 
the very near future.  On September 26, a ruling family 
member working in the Prime Minister's office told Poloff 
that Shaykh Sabah would not seek to be elevated to either 
Crown Prince or Amir out of respect for the Amir and the 
Crown Prince.  The official added that Shaykh Sabah was 
"already the de facto ruler" of the country.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) On September 25, in a front page article in respected 
daily Al-Qabas, National Guard Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali 
Al-Sabah said the ruling family was in the process of 
announcing significant resolutions in the upcoming days and 
that the time for change had come.  He continued, saying "it 
is a new phase for the ruling family, a phase long awaited by 
the people and will be in favor of the country and its 
stability."  Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, who is the third highest 
ranking GOK official in order of protocol, further compared 
the ill-defined changes to the adoption of Kuwait's 
Constitution in 1962. Shaykh Salem said the September 25 
return of the Amir from the U.S., where he underwent medical 
treatment, to Kuwait would signal the beginning of high-level 
family consultations.  (Comment: A photograph of the Amir, 
upon his return to Kuwait, was printed in all major dailies 
and showed, for the first time, a tired and grey-haired 
Shaykh Jaber. End Comment.) 
 
3. (SBU) News reports and Embassy contacts reported September 
26 that the Al-Sabah ruling family planned a September 26 or 
27 meeting of key family members, and rumors suggested that 
decisions made in this meeting could affect the very top 
positions in the GOK, to include the Amir and Crown Prince. 
Several scenarios were circulating but the following were the 
two most prominent: 
 
4. (SBU) The first scenario:  The Amir and Crown Prince step 
down due to health concerns, Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah 
Al-Ahmad becomes Amir and Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. 
Mohammed Al-Sabah becomes the new Crown Prince.  Interior 
Minister Shaykh Nawaf becomes the new Prime Minister and 
Energy Minister Ahmed Al-Fahd becomes the Foreign Minister. 
 
5. (SBU) The second scenario: The changes would be made in 
phases beginning with the Amir appointing Prime Minister 
Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad as Crown Prince, after current Crown 
Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah steps down. 
In the second phase, the Amir would step down and Shaykh 
Sabah Al-Ahmad would then become Amir.  National Guard Deputy 
Chief Shaykh Mish'al Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah would be 
expected to play a key role in the decision-making process 
for choosing the rest of the Cabinet.  All high-level GOK 
reshuffling was expected to take place before the Parliament 
convenes on October 26. 
 
6. (U) An Al-Qabas reporter following the story on the 26th 
told post that the Sabah family intends to give the younger 
generation the opportunity to advance to senior leadership 
positions including Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed 
Al-Sabah.  (Note: FM Dr. Mohammed will be 49 on October 25th 
and Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd is 41. End Note.) 
The family, however, was expected to include in any new 
government the current Defense Minister Shaykh Jaber 
Al-Mubarak, from the Al-Hamad branch, to maintain balance 
between the Al-Jaber and Al-Salem branches.  He also 
speculated that Kuwait might adopt a system of government 
similar to that in Jordan where the Amir appoints the Prime 
Minister from among qualified citizens. 
 
7. (C) Poloff met September 26 with a ruling family member 
who works closely with the Prime Minister.  The official 
categorically denied that Shaykh Sabah would even consider 
such a move, out of respect for the Amir, his brother, and 
the Crown Prince.  He added that Shaykh Sabah was "already 
the de facto ruler" of the country.   Despite this denial, 
local dailies reported September 27 that the Sabah family 
would be meeting that day to discuss disagreements within the 
family.  Reversing the story again, local daily Al-Seyassah 
reported on September 28 that the ruling family meeting was 
not held and noted that informed sources speculate that if it 
is held, there is nothing that warrants any changes in the 
senior posts as previously reported. 
 
8. (C) Comment:  Despite rumors appearing in relatively 
fringe media outlets such as Bahrain's Gulf Daily News and 
mainstream news sources such as AFP and Radio Sawa, it 
appears that there may not be any change in leadership at the 
moment. That Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, third most senior in the 
ruling family, would allow himself to be quoted in a 
front-page news article, however, indicates that at the very 
least, there are serious debates occurring within the ruling 
family over the future leadership of the country.  Further 
clouding the picture is the fact that Crown Prince Shaykh 
Saad is scheduled to depart Kuwait on September 28 to the 
United Kingdom for a medical checkup. 
 
9. (C) Comment Continued: Were it to occur now, a wholesale 
power change would likely energize the political system and 
would all but erase efforts by the National Assembly to grill 
Ministers during the upcoming Parliamentary session.  It 
would certainly usher Kuwait into a period of more decisive 
decision-making, relative to that of the current Amir. 
LeBaron