US embassy cable - 01HARARE3221

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003221 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: NOT TOO LATE FOR FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTION, ZVOBGO TELLS AMBASSADOR 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) IN AN INTRODUCTORY MEETING, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN 
MET WITH MASVINGO SOUTH MP AND LONG-STANDING ZANU-PF 
POLITICIAN EDDISON ZVOBGO ON OCTOBER 19.  AMBASSADOR WAS 
JOINED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF.  AMBASSADOR AND 
ZVOBGO QUICKLY FOUND COMMON GROUND:  BOTH HAD ATTENDED 
TUFTS UNIVERSITY IN THE U.S. AT THE SAME TIME DURING THE 
1960S.  THEIR DISCUSSION WAS WARM AND FRIENDLY. 
 
PRESIDENTIAL POWERS SHOULD BE CURTAILED 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) ZVOBGO BEGAN WITH A DISCUSSION OF PRESIDENT 
MUGABE'S POWERS.  ZVOBGO SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AN 
EXECUTIVE PRESIDENT, BUT BELIEVES THE PRESIDENT'S POWERS 
SHOULD BE CURTAILED.  IN WRITING THE 1986 CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENT THAT TURNED MUGABE FROM A PRIME MINISTER INTO 
A PRESIDENT, ZVOBGO HAD PROPOSED MORE LIMITED EXECUTIVE 
POWERS FOR THE PRESIDENT, BUT THIS INITIAL DRAFT WAS 
REJECTED.  IN RETROSPECT, ZVOBGO BELIEVES THAT MORE 
SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE TO MAKE MUGABE CONSTITUTIONALLY 
ANSWERABLE TO HIS CABINET.  HOWEVER, MUGABE EXPANDED HIS 
"POLITICAL SPACE" TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT HE DOES NOT 
ANSWER TO ANYONE BUT HIMSELF.  THE AMBASSADOR STATED 
THAT AFRICA NEEDS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TRADITION OF THE 
STRONG MAN LEADER, EVEN IF THAT MEANS PUTTING MORE 
CONSTITUTIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON HIS POWER. 
 
WE CAN'T BLAME THE WEST FOR OUR PROBLEMS 
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3.  (C) THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN GOVERNMENT, SUCH 
AS FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, WHO HAVE A REALISTIC 
VIEW OF THE CAUSES AND EXTENT OF ZIMBABWE'S SUBSTANTIAL 
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, ZVOBGO CONTINUED.  UNFORTUNATELY, 
THERE ARE JUST AS MANY WITH UNREALISTIC VIEWS OR WHO 
FAIL TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PROBLEMS EXIST.  SOME OF 
THESE PEOPLE BLAME THE U.S. OR BRITAIN FOR ZIMBABWE'S 
PROBLEMS.  ZVOBGO SAID THIS IS PATENTLY ABSURD -- 
ZIMBABWE HAS ONLY ITSELF TO BLAME.  HE WARNED THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT HE MAY ENCOUNTER A LEVEL OF XENOPHOBIA 
IN ZIMBABWE BECAUSE OF THE MORE POPULAR VIEW THAT OTHERS 
ARE RESPONSIBLE. 
 
IT'S NOT TOO LATE FOR A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C) ZVOBGO OPINED THAT IT IS NOT TOO LATE FOR A FREE 
AND FAIR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ZIMBABWE.  THE MP 
SUGGESTED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD LAY 
DOWN CLEAR, MINIMUM CONDITIONS THAT MUST BE MET IF THE 
ELECTORAL PROCESS AND ELECTION OUTCOME ARE TO BE 
CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE; OTHERWISE, THE RESULTS WILL NOT 
BE RECOGNIZED.  AGREEMENT BY THE U.S., EU, AND SADC TO A 
MINIMUM SET OF STANDARDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE 
THE CHANCES THAT THE ELECTION WILL BE AS FREE AND FAIR 
AS POSSIBLE.  THE ELECTION WILL NOT BE PERFECT, ZVOBGO 
ADMITTED, BUT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD AIM FOR 
"SUBSTANTIAL COMPLIANCE" TO ITS CONDITIONS. 
 
5.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED IF THERE IS SPACE FOR 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03221  01 OF 02  261050Z 
OBSERVERS IN ZIMBABWE, AND ZVOBGO REPLIED "YES. 
OBSERVERS WILL INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN THE POLITICAL 
PROCESS."  THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RELUCTANT TO ALLOW 
OBSERVERS -- THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THE EXPULSION OF THE 
IFES OBSERVER TEAM IN SEPTEMBER -- BUT IF THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY LAYS DOWN OBSERVERS AS A 
CONDITION FOR AN LEGITIMATE ELECTION, THEN THERE IS A 
BETTER CHANCE OF A FAIR ELECTION.  IF THE GOVERNMENT 
DOES NOT MEET THESE CONDITIONS, DONORS SHOULD MAKE CLEAR 
THAT IT WILL NOT BE BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH ZIMBABWE. 
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION SINCE ZIMBABWE'S 
INDEPENDENCE IN 1980, ZVOBGO OPINED, AND THE EFFORT 
"SHOULD NOT END IN FUTILITY." 
 
6.  (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT MUGABE'S INSISTENCE THAT HE 
WOULD "NEVER, EVER ALLOW THE MDC TO TAKE POWER," ZVOBGO 
REPLIED THAT HE INTERPRETS THIS STATEMENT TO MEAN THE 
PRESIDENT CANNOT COMPREHEND LOSING THE ELECTION.  ZVOBGO 
BELIEVES THAT MUGABE WOULD LEAVE POWER IF SOUNDLY 
DEFEATED IN THE ELECTION.  ON THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY, 
ZVOBGO THINKS THE ARMY WOULD NOT INTERFERE IN THE 
ELECTION OUTCOME, AND WOULD ALLOW THE MDC TO ASSUME 
POWER IF IT WON THE ELECTION BY A RESPECTABLE MARGIN. 
ZVOBGO DOUBTED THAT A COUP BY MUGABE OR THE MILITARY 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7189 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03221  02 OF 02  261050Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------35C4FF  261050Z /38 
R 261018Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0125 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003221 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: NOT TOO LATE FOR FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTION, ZVOBGO TELLS AMBASSADOR 
 
WOULD BE SUSTAINABLE IF THE MDC WON BIG. 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  03221  02 OF 02  261050Z 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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