US embassy cable - 04QUITO2594

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS: QUITO/PICHINCHA RACES 
STABILIZING IN FAVOR OF INCUMBENTS 
 
REF: QUITO 2449 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  With 19% of the national vote, the 
electoral battle for Pichincha province, which includes the 
capital of Quito (itself 15% of the national vote), is a key 
test of the Democratic Left's (ID) strength.  The Quito mayor 
race overshadows the Pichincha provincial prefect race in 
national significance.  Polls show popular incumbent mayor 
Paco Moncayo building a strong lead over his nearest rival, 
former mayor Rodrigo Paz.  Both candidates are supportive of 
USG interests in the capital.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2.  (U) Pichincha province goes to the polls on October 17 to 
elect a provincial prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent) and 
seven provincial councilors, as well as 43 mayors and their 
corresponding city councilors and 59 town councils,  Of the 
1.7 million eligible voters in Pichincha province, 1.3 
million of them live in the capital of Quito. 
 
3.  (U) General (Ret) Paco Moncayo was elected mayor in 2000 
after a long and illustrious military career.  Moncayo won 
heading a Democratic Left Party (ID) ticket at the invitation 
of ID leader Rodrigo Borja.  However, Moncayo is quick to 
point out that he is not personally a member of the ID, but 
runs with their support.  Ecuador's largest indigenous party, 
Pachakutik, is also supporting Moncayo, having obtained in 
exchange the temporary post of acting mayor during the 
campaign. 
 
4.  (U) Moncayo's lead rival, Rodrigo Paz, served as mayor of 
Quito 1988-92.  Paz, who runs a major banking empire, is best 
known to the public as the flamboyant and successful owner of 
a major national league soccer team.  Paz entered politics 
from business at the invitation of then-president Jaime 
Roldos of the Popular Democratic Party (DP), and has 
distanced himself from the DP since the downfall of the 
Mahuad administration.  (Paz had groomed Mahuad to replace 
him as mayor in 1992.)  Paz is now running at the head of a 
local political grouping he created entitled "Quito in 
Action." 
 
5.  (U) While the Quito race is essentially a two-man show, 
Ecuador's national parties are fielding candidates.  PRIAN, 
the party of billionaire banana magnate / two-time 
presidential runner up Alvaro Noboa, offers physician Marcelo 
Cruz, Noboa's 1996 running mate.  The Coast-based PRE, 
traditionally weak in the highlands, chose businessman 
Eduardo de la Cadena.  Predictably, his greatest aspiration 
lies in meeting party founder (and fugitive from justice) 
Abdala Bucaram.  Finally, President Lucio Gutierrez's PSP 
fields former Housing Minister Ermel Fiallo.  None of the 
three garners even five percent support in recent polling, 
however. 
 
Polls Show Moncayo Pulling Ahead 
-------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Recent polls taken at the beginning of September show 
incumbent Mayor Paco Moncayo enjoying a 12-15 point lead over 
former Mayor Rodrigo Paz.  One poll indicated that Moncayo 
enjoys more support among women voters (55%) than men (46%). 
Moncayo also had high approval (56%) among youthful voters 
(ages 18-24 years). 
 
7.  (U) Polls also show a coattails effect benefiting the ID 
prefectural candidate for Pichincha, Ramiro Gonzalez, who 
leads Paz's prefectural counterpart, Wilma Salgado, by 37% to 
22%.  PSP candidate Napoleon Villa, the president's 
brother-in-law, scored less than 2%, likely due to recurring 
rumors of corruption. 
 
Paz: Unfair Playing Field 
------------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) In a September 21 meeting with PolCouns, Paz 
accused Moncayo of using his incumbency as an unfair 
advantage to evade campaign finance limits.  Those limits are 
artificially low, he said, with just $40,118 as the limit for 
the mayoral race in the capital (second only to the $44,126 
limit for the mayorship of Guayaquil).  According to the 
electoral watchdog group Citizen Participation, Paz has 
already exceeded his limit, spending $52,000 on publicity by 
September 21.  Paz claimed Moncayo is using municipal funds 
to publicize public works under his administration. 
 
Electoral Issues 
---------------- 
 
9.  (U) Moncayo's popularity derives largely from a series of 
public works transportation projects and the successful 
clean-up of Quito's historic center.  Critics fault him for 
getting off to a slow start at the outset of his political 
career, but even Paz credits him with these more recent 
successes.  Paz promises to do Moncayo one better on public 
works, criticizing his slowness breaking ground for a new 
airport.  Paz has used the issue of citizen insecurity in the 
face of rising crime rates to attack Moncayo's performance. 
Paz told PolCouns he believes Moncayo, as an ex-General who 
has presided over the city at a time of rising crime rates, 
is vulnerable on the security issue.  Paz' campaign has 
focused on poorer neighborhoods where crime concerns are 
highest. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) The Embassy enjoys good working relationships with 
both Moncayo and Paz.  Either would continue to be supportive 
of Embassy administrative concerns, including the 
construction of a new Chancery compound, in which Moncayo has 
already been helpful. 
 
11.  (SBU) The Democratic Left Party carries the burden and 
enjoys the advantages of incumbency in these races.  It has 
most to lose in Pichincha, its heartland, and in Quito, a 
plum political stepping-stone to national office.  A loss of 
the mayorship or prefect would represent a stunning blow to 
the party's national standing.  By all accounts, such a 
reversal appears highly unlikely, and Mayor Moncayo seems set 
to repeat his term. 
KENNEY