US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2452

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002452 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2014 
TAGS: PREL, TU, NL, CY 
SUBJECT: TURKEY/EU/CYPRUS - "THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET" 
 
 
Classified By: Andrew Schofer, Political Counselor, for 
               reasons 1.4 (b) 
 and (d) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Hannie Pollman-Zall (protect), MFA 
Director of the Western and Central European Department, told 
Poloff on September 23 that if the Turks thought the European 
reaction to the adultery law proposal was bad, "they ain't 
seen nothin' yet."  Ankara, she suggested, may still not 
fully appreciate to what extent the EU will intrude into 
internal Turkish affairs in the course of accession 
negotiations.  Helping the Turks understand this reality is 
an area where the U.S. could play a helpful role.  On Cyprus, 
Pollman-Zall suggested the Cypriot actions are driven more by 
a desire to revise the Annan plan than by an interest in 
keeping Turkey out of the EU.  End Summary. 
 
TURKEY MIGHT HEAR NO FIRST, THEN YES 
 
2. (C)  Speaking with Poloff on September 23, Hannie 
Pollman-Zall noted that the many Turks still do not 
appreciate how intrusive the EU will become in EU affairs if 
and when accession negotiations begin.  If the Turks thought 
the recent flap over the proposed adultery law was bad, she 
added, "they ain't seen nothing yet."  (Note: Pollman-Zall 
was speaking just as the positive news from Erdogan's 
meetings in Brussels was breaking.  End note.)  "If the Turks 
think the EU has been meddling in their internal affairs", 
she said, then "they don't understand EU reality.  Just wait 
until they see what it means to be in the EU full time." 
 
3. (C)  With regard to the question of starting accession 
negotiations, Pollman-Zall predicted internal EU discussions 
would remain inconclusive up until, and possibly beyond, the 
December 17 Council meeting.  If the Council is unable to 
reach a decision, she said, then it is quite possible that a 
second Council meeting would need to be called to resolve the 
issue.  Even in December, and even with a positive Commission 
report in October, countries like France, Austria, or Cyprus 
may still be arguing "No".  While Cyprus would "not dare to 
stand alone," she said, it would be "willing to sidle up to 
group of like minded doubters."  Eventually, however, Cyprus 
would buckle under pressure if momentum for a positive 
decision was strong enough.  Pollman-Zall recalled that she 
had seen EU Heads of State "back colleagues into a corner 
physically to press them to join a consensus" in the past, 
and predicted that, at the end of the day, the Council would 
give Turkey a grudging "yes" on starting negotiations. 
Pollman-Zall denied having seen an actual draft of 
Commissioner Verheugen's report, but admitted that she was 
following its development closely and providing regular 
input. 
 
4.  (C)  When asked how the U.S. might play a useful role 
guiding Turkey so it is easier for the EU to make the right 
decision, Pollman-Zall offered two suggestions: 
 
a)  The U.S. could send a message to Turkey to "stop being so 
childish about recognizing Cyprus."  Turkey has got to 
realize that the EU, institutionally, cannot exclude Cyprus 
from EU meetings, she said.  Turkey has to find an elegant 
way to recognize the Government of Cyprus.  This would 
necessarily involve recognizing the whole island, she 
admitted, which puts Turkey in the corner regarding the 
Turkish part.  Clearly Turkey "needs good lawyers to find a 
way to do this without de facto un-recognizing Turkish 
Cyprus," she said, adding, "doesn't the US have good lawyers 
who could help the good Turkish lawyers find a way to say 
this?" 
 
b)  The U.S. could help Turkey understand that if it hopes to 
join the EU, then it has no choice but to accommodate to EU 
rules.  Even if Turkey is a big country with a long history, 
she said, Turkey has to accept that the EU has rules that 
must be followed.  "Shouting about internal affairs is not 
compatible with EU membership,"  she said. 
 
CYPRUS 
 
5. (C)  Cyprus, according to Pollman-Zall, is blocking the 
EU's trade/aid package primarily to leverage concessions on 
revisions to the Annan plan for governance of the island, 
rather than to influence the EU's decision on Turkey.  As of 
September 23 (in a fast moving negotiation) the Dutch believe 
neither the Greek Cypriots nor Turkish Cypriots want a deal 
on the package after earlier indications that the Turkish 
side was going along.  Pollman-Zall thought the discussions 
could move into the Luxembourg or British Presidencies. 
 
6. (C)  Pollman-Zall observed that the negotiations over 
Cyprus aid/trade have become very complicated and "could 
change again with one phone call in an hour."  The Dutch 
still want to link trade and aid packages as a strategy, but 
the Turkish Cypriots seem now to be rejecting the aid package 
because they read the current draft as excluding all Turkish 
Cypriots from any benefits, she said.  (Note:  Pollman-Zall 
said that the text was originally written to intentionally 
exclude Turkish Anatolian settlers in Cyprus from benefits, 
so as to discourage further economic immigration from 
Anatolia by those seeking to capitalize on a 300 million euro 
EU aid program. The text, however, literally refers to 
"legally established nationals," which could mean all Turkish 
Cypriots, native and immigrant. This is impossible for the 
Turkish Cypriots to accept, according to Pollman-Zall.  End 
Note.) 
 
7. (C) In closing, Pollman-Zall asked for an update on the 
status of the USG Cyprus aid package.  She mentioned: a) the 
$30 million for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME);  b) the 
airport in the North; c) phytosanitary issues. 
SOBEL