US embassy cable - 04CARACAS3013

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 003013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: COORDINADORA LOSES SOME LESSER LIGHTS 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Five groups nominally associated with the Venezuelan 
opposition -- including political parties Alianza Bravo 
Pueblo and Causa R --  announced their separation from the 
Coordinadora Democratica on September 21.  The groups 
criticized the Coordinadora's handling of the referendum 
campaign and its apparent willingness to participate in the 
October 31 regional elections without changes to the 
electoral process.  Separately, opposition governors and 
mayors formed a new committee to take over management of the 
regional elections campaign.  These are natural, tactical 
moves based on opposition groups' relative readiness for the 
elections.  End summary. 
 
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Minor Groups Leave The Coordinadora 
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2. (U) Several opposition political parties, NGOs, and 
individuals announced on September 21 their separation from 
the Coordinadora Democratica.  They asserted the Coordinadora 
is sending the mixed message that opponents of President Hugo 
Chavez should proceed to the October 31 regional elections 
even though the National Electoral Council (CNE) has not made 
changes to the electoral process that the Coordinadora 
denounced as fraudulent.  Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP), Causa 
R,  Un Solo Pueblo (headed by William Ojeda), Vision 
Emergente (an NGO led by Cipriano Heredia), Fuerza Liberal 
(an NGO headed by Haydee Deutsch), Rafael Alfonso (an 
opposition businessman), Oswaldo Alvarez_ Paz (former foreign 
minister), and Carlos Blanco (a political analyst) all 
withdrew their support from the Coordinadora, according to 
press reports.  ABP President Antonio Ledezma said the 
opposition should not participate in the regional elections 
without guarantees of the transparency of the process. 
 
3. (C) Causa R leader Andres Velazquez said the time of the 
Coordinadora had passed with the August 15 recall referendum. 
 Velazquez said the Coordinadora failed to catch the CNE's 
fraud during the referendum and has done nothing to improve 
conditions for the next elections.  He told poloff September 
22 he is in discussion with several parties about a new 
movement to be formed after the regional elections "that will 
offer Venezuelans a new alternative" from the current 
political context.  Velazquez predicted a crippling defeat 
for the opposition in the regional elections. 
 
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Governors and Mayors Pick Up The Baton 
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4. (U) Opposition governors and mayors announced September 22 
the formation of an electoral committee to manage the 
regional elections and negotiate conditions with the CNE. 
Yaracuy state Governor Eduardo Lapi described the opposition 
governors and mayors as "generals with the troops for this 
battle" and boasted of a decisive win for opposition 
candidates.  Lapi announced that he will coordinate the 
committee, joined by Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales and 
Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena.  Lapi, a former 
COPEI member now with Convergencia, said the major opposition 
parties support the formation of the committee. 
 
5. (U) Notably absent from the group was Carabobo state 
Governor Henrique Salas Feo (Proyecto Venezuela) and 
Anzoategui Governor David de Lima (formerly with the Movement 
to Socialism, MAS), the latter of whom is embroiled in a high 
profile dispute over public finances in his state. 
Coordinadora leader and Miranda state Governor Enrique 
Mendoza was present for the announcement and made brief 
remarks in support of the new committee.  Lapi said the 
committee will take over CNE negotiations from the 
Coordinadora, which will focus on documenting the fraud 
allegations surrounding the recall referendum. 
 
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Comment 
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6. (C) These developments are tactical responses to the 
opposition's basic dilemma:  How can Venezuelans participate 
in elections they know to be unfair in the light of the 
August 15 "fraud?"  Ledezma and company are minor political 
groups with no real prospects in the elections.  Ledezma had, 
in fact, left the Coordinadora prior to the signature appeals 
process in May and was not invited back.  Velazquez has only 
nominally associated himself with the Coordinadora, depending 
on the political winds.  Regarding the new campaign 
committee, it is reasonable that the opposition governors and 
mayors take center stage in managing their own elections. 
These elected leaders have been meeting regularly for several 
months to discuss common issues and seem to work well 
together.  The new committee, at least, will spell the 
opposition's battle-worn leadership.  The committee faces a 
tall task, however, in beating the well organized and 
relatively more unified forces of Chavismo. 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA03013 - CONFIDENTIAL