US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN2114

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION: POWERPLAY TUG-OF-WAR, 
PRESIDENTIAL WEATHERVANE 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1938 
 
Classified By: DCM AF Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  The National Assembly Speaker-backed candidate won a 
controversial parliamentary by-election September 19 in a 
Yerevan suburb after the only remaining candidate (backed by 
Armenia's Procurator General) withdrew from the race only a 
few days earlier.  Analysts viewed the election, which had to 
be re-run after accusations of mass irregularities, as a 
prelude to Armenia's next presidential election, highlighting 
a power struggle between NA Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan and 
Procurator General Aghvan Hovsepian to determine which camp 
had both high-level and popular support.  President Robert 
Kocharian's hand was evident in the run-up to the election; 
neither party denied rumors that an early September meeting 
between the President and NA Speaker produced an agreement to 
have the Procurator General's candidate withdraw in exchange 
for future cooperation on upcoming legislative items 
important to Kocharian.  Observers from "It's Your Choice" (a 
USG-supported NGO) noted fewer visible violations during the 
second balloting, but highlighted continued administrative 
glitches and problems with unauthorized police presence in 
most polling places.  For the moment, dividing the proverbial 
power pie appears to remain more important than the 
democratic process.  End Summary. 
 
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BAGHDASARYAN'S CANDIDATE WINS AFTER PG'S MAN DROPS OUT 
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2. (C) Artak Sargsian (backed by National Assembly Speaker 
and Orinats Yerkir party chairman Artur Baghdasaryan) 
defeated Araik Hairapetian (backed by Procurator General 
Aghvan Hovsepian) in the September 19 parliamentary 
by-election re-run in a Yerevan suburb.  The win increased 
the current number of Orinats-Yerkir (Country of Law) members 
of parliament from 21 to 22.  The election was re-run after 
the Central Election Commission declared the initial 
elections void due to an extremely small winning margin and 
following accusations of mass irregularities during the 
original August 29 balloting (reftel).  In a surprise move, 
Hairapetian "unofficially" withdrew from the race on 
September 16.  His name, however, still appeared on the 
ballot and he managed to grab 37 percent of the votes cast. 
Both candidates, well-connected businessmen with ties to 
light industry in central Armenia, were relatively unknown in 
political arenas leading up to the election.  Their 
high-profile backers, both of whom have made veiled 
statements about their presidential aspirations in 2007, 
dominated news reports and speculation leading up to the 
election.  Most viewed the election as the first real 
indication of their relative power, both at the ballot box 
and among the current political elite. 
 
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KOCHARIAN-BAGHDASARYAN MEETING SETTLES THE MATTER? 
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3. (C) President Robert Kocharian's hand was evident in the 
run-up to the election.  Neither party, nor the President's 
office, denied rumors that an early September meeting between 
the President and NA Speaker produced an agreement to have 
the Procurator General's candidate withdraw in exchange for 
future cooperation on upcoming legislative items important to 
Kocharian.  In fact, Kocharian's office confirmed that the 
meeting had taken place and that the issue was among the 
topics they discussed. 
 
4. (C) Mikael Danielyan, Chairman of Armenia's Helsinki 
Commission, told DCM on September 22 that the election was 
"typical of our level of democratic development."  He added 
that the word on the street is that Kocharian agreed that the 
Procurator General's candidate would receive an appointment 
as a Deputy Minister by year's end in exchange for his 
withdrawal from the race.  Embassy sources close to Kocharian 
reported that the electoral stand-off put Kocharian in an 
awkward position that threatened to disrupt the delicate 
balance that he maintains within the GOAM.  By finding a 
mutually acceptable outcome for both the Speaker and 
Procurator General's office, Kocharian reportedly avoided a 
dissolution of power before the other legislative coalition 
forces -- the Republican Party and ARF Dashnaksutyun Parties 
-- were politically forced to take sides on the matter. 
 
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BALLOTING GRADUALLY IMPROVES, BUT PROBLEMS REMAIN 
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5. (SBU) Observers from "It's Your Choice" said there were 
fewer visible violations during the second balloting on 
September 19, but noted continued administrative glitches and 
problems with unauthorized police presence in most polling 
places.  They also cited evidence of bribery of voters and 
election officials, although these observations were not part 
of their comments to the press.  Local representatives of 
international offices in Yerevan had clearly hoped for 
greater improvement following last year's problematic 
presidential and parliamentary elections. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) While the September 19 election did little to change 
the balance of power within the National Assembly, it appears 
to have slightly increased the value of Baghdasaryan's 
political stock.  Even though Kocharian appears to have 
brokered the final deal, the withdrawal of the Procurator 
General's candidate indicates that Baghdasaryan was either 
more successful in persuading Kocharian to side with his 
candidate or already had more of the President's favor in 
comparison to the PG.  Either way, and despite the rumored 
concession prize of a deputy minister spot for the PG's 
candidate, Baghdasaryan emerges as the real winner of this 
particular election. 
 
7. (C) The reduction in violations of electoral procedures 
during this poll should not be interpreted as a step forward 
in democratic practices, but merely the absence of a close 
race.  Power structures within the GOAM demonstrated that 
this election in Armenia was still more about dividing the 
spoils of power and influence than about the democratic 
process. 
EVANS