US embassy cable - 04QUEBEC169

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAN FOR TERRY BREESE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Elections, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: QUEBEC BY-ELECTIONS :  LIBERALS DEFEATED IN THREE OUT OF 
FOUR SEATS 
 
REF: QUEBEC 0128 
 
 
1.  This cable was jointly prepared by the Quebec City and 
Montreal Consulates. 
 
2.  Summary:  In the first test of its support among voters 
since its election victory in April 2003, the Quebec Liberal 
government held four provincial by-elections on September 20; 
three in the Montreal area and one in Quebec City.  Premier Jean 
Charest lost three of the four ridings up for grabs.  As 
predicted, the Liberals were re-elected in their stronghold of 
Nelligan, and the Parti Quebecois was re-elected in the Gouin 
riding.  However, there were two surprising results.  A Parti 
Quebecois candidate won narrowly in the riding of 
Laurier-Dorion, which had been a Liberal base since 1981, and 
in Quebec City's Vanier riding Mario Dumont's Action 
Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) seized a fifth seat in the National 
Assembly from the Liberals.  End Summary. 
 
VANIER CONTEST 
 
3.  Young ADQ contender Sylvain Legare won handily in the Quebec 
City riding of Vanier with well over 4,000 votes and a 46.8% 
majority.  Liberal Michel Beaudoin came in second place at 
27.9%, and the PQ's Sylvain Levesque at 21.9%.  The ADQ lost 
badly in the three other ridings, coming in fourth place behind 
the new left-wing Union des Forces Progressistes (UFP).  Vanier 
is usually a bellweather, regularly voting for the party that 
will form the next government.  Leader Dumont's strategy to 
crusade in favor of local radio station CHOI-FM (see reftel) and 
against juvenile prostitution proved successful.  He will face 
his members at the ADQ party convention next weekend head high. 
 
4.  The PQ came in third in the Vanier contest, francophone and 
blue-collar, with only 20% of the vote, even though voter 
dissatisfaction traditionally leans toward the opposition. 
Opposition Leader Bernard Landry's leadership has been under 
close scrutiny and voters seem unconvinced that he is the right 
man to lead the PQ to a possible victory in 2007. 
 
MONTREAL RACES 
 
5. In Montreal, two of the three by-elections followed 
expectations:  Liberal Yolande James and the PQ's Nicolas Girard 
each easily won their parties' respective strongholds of 
Nelligan and Gouin.  The lone upset occurred in Laurier-Dorion, 
where the Liberal candidate and Greek community representative, 
Voula Neofotisos, lost to the PQ's Elsie Lefebvre.  The 
multi-ethnic character of the Laurier-Dorion riding -- in which 
Greek-Canadians are the largest ethnic group - would have 
suggested that a sovereignist, pro-French language, PQ candidate 
could not win.  However, Elsie Lefebvre campaigned very 
actively, and apparently was able to get enough of her 
supporters to the polls to win by the relatively small margin of 
435 votes. 
 
6. The ethnic community vote is closely watched in Quebec as a 
harbinger of whether the appeal of sovereignty can extend beyond 
the province's Francophone population, and attract growing 
numbers of non-Francophone voters from more recent immigration 
waves, who mostly live in and around Montreal.  But most 
analysts are discounting the significance of this particular 
by-election result. Turnout was a very low 35 percent. (Voter 
participation rates in general provincial elections are usually 
between 70 and 80 percent.). 
 
NEW BLOOD IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
7. The four new members of the National Assembly distinguish 
themselves by their young age. Yolande James, a 26-year-old 
lawyer, will become the first black woman to sit in Quebec's 
National Assembly. Elsie Lefebvre, also 26, is completing a 
master's degree in international studies.  Nicolas Girard, 32, 
was the press attache and protege of former PQ Environment 
Minister Andre Boisclair (who has temporarily left politics to 
study at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government).  The ADQ's 
Sylvain Legare is 35. 
 
8. Comment:  Premier Charest came back from Ottawa with a health 
care agreement in his back pocket that was advertised as a 
precedent for provincial-federal negotiations.  The Premier's 
success at last week's health conference with PM Martin and the 
other Premiers did not go totally unnoticed, but it failed to 
dispel general dissatisfaction among voters or to incite Liberal 
voters to go to the polls. There is tangible dissatisfaction 
with the government and now, after 16 months in power and a 
dismal showing in the polls, Charest and his party will have to 
regroup.   However, by-elections are customarily fought on local 
issues and last night's results will likely have no long-term 
political impact.  The current standings in the National 
Assembly are:  Liberal 74, the Parti Quebecois 46, and ADQ 5, of 
a total 125 seats.  End Comment. 
 
 
STRUDWICK