US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1753

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001753 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, CASC, CG 
SUBJECT: FARDC ON THE MOVE IN EASTERN DRC 
 
REF: KINSHASA C 1720 
 
Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.5 B and D 
 
1. (C) Summary. The FARDC recently sent up to 2,000 troops to 
South Kivu and has retaken control of a number of villages in 
the area of Kalehe and Minova without facing significant 
resistance. North Kivu, South Kivu and Orientale regional 
military commanders were called in to Kinshasa to discuss 
possible plans to launch a three-prong attack on Nkunda.  End 
summary. 
 
FARDC on the Move 
----------------- 
 
2. (C) Over the past two weeks, the FARDC sent up to 2,000 
troops to S. Kivu (mostly from the 52nd ex-MLC brigade based 
in Gbadolite, with some ex-FAC elements from Kinshasa  and 
Bas-Congo). By September 12, S. Kivu Military Regional 
Commander BG Mabe had retaken control of a number of villages 
in the area of Kalehe and Minova without facing significant 
resistance. A Western journalist told poloffs that the Mai 
Mai commander who captured Minova said he 'walked right in.' 
On September 15, MONUC military sources reported that troops 
loyal to Nkunda had vacated positions in Minova a week prior 
to Mabe's advance. Nkunda's troops, who took their weapons, 
probably moved northwest towards Hombo (located on the 
Walikale-Buakvu road) in N. Kivu. There are unconfirmed 
reports that Nkunda is in the Masisi area. On September 11, a 
presidential advisor told polcouns that General Kisempia had 
given BG Mabe permission to advance to the N. Kivu/ S. Kivu 
border, but ordered him to stay out of N. Kivu for now. On 
September 11, there were unconfirmed reports that FARDC 
troops had deployed south and east from Lubutu, Maniema 
towards Walikale. (Comment: FARDC brigades located in Lubutu 
are under the control of General Padiri of the 9th Military 
Region, based in Kisangani, in large due to the incompetence 
of the Maniema Militiary Regional Commander BG Widi Mbuilu. 
End comment.) There have been low-level skirmishes for 
several days in the area of Walikale in N. Kivu between local 
Mai Mai and Tutsi ex-ANC elements (who have been integrated 
into the 9th Military Region, and fall under the control of 
Padiri), and movements of Mai Mai and possibly Interahamwe 
elements near Butembo (septel). 
 
Eastern Generals Recalled to HQ 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) N. Kivu, S. Kivu and Orientale regional military 
commanders (Mabe, Obedi and Padiri) were recalled to Kinshasa 
to discuss possible plans to launch a three-prong attack on 
Nkunda. Padiri arrived on September 12 and was scheduled to 
return to Walikale September 15 to help mediate the Mai Mai 
problem. Obedi and Mabe arrived in Kinshasa September 13, and 
were reportedly still in town on September 15. DATT told 
poloff that although the FARDC would like to replace Obedi 
for incompetence and lack of loyalty and Mabe for talking to 
the press without cleared talking points, the two will 
probably remain in place for now. A source in the Presidency, 
however, speculated to Ambassador and DCM that Mabe will 
retain his job, and that Obedi may be replaced with an 
officer affiliated with the Kabila faction from the Bas-Congo 
Military Region. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C) It is unclear why Obedi agreed to come to Kinshasa 
(after he refused twice over the past few months) or what the 
FARDC plans to do with him now that he is here. He will face 
tough questions about his loyalty and which of his units the 
FARDC can count on in a fight against Nkunda. (Nkunda relied 
heavily on former RCD/G troops from North Kivu in his Bukavu 
campaign, and Obedi admitted to poloff and DATT that although 
he is loyal to Kinshasa, 'his troops' may or may not follow 
his orders.) Obedi continues to be a serious problem for 
Kinshasa. On the one hand, he is widely seen as at best 
Nkunda's willing accomplice and Rwanda's dupe, and at worst a 
traitor. On the other hand, replacing him could anger N. Kivu 
Governor Serufuli, VP Ruberwa, Rwanda and/or trigger an 
Nkunda-led offensive on Goma. Replacing Mabe could prove to 
be equally difficult as the FARDC does not have a good 
alternate in the wings, and because he has become very 
popular in both S. Kivu and Kinshasa for his decisive action 
and public image. Ruberwa's extreme dislike for Mabe and the 
FARDC's distrust of Obedi may lead to their mutual dismissal, 
but for now, the general status quo is likely to continue. 
MEECE