US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2903

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE, OAS 
SUBJECT: OAS REFERENDUM WRAP-UP GETS SPUN BY BOTH SIDES 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.4(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The report issued by OAS Secretary General (SYG) Cesar 
Gaviria on September 13 gave ammunition to both the GOV and 
the opposition regarding the question of fraud in the August 
15 presidential recall referendum.  The GOV played up 
Gaviria's admonitions to the opposition to begin to accept 
the referendum results.  The Coordinadora Democratica called 
the report "adequate and favorable," finding in it criticisms 
of the GOV.  The Coordinadora formally presented its 
allegations of fraud on September to the National Electoral 
Council (CNE), which has 20 days to rule.  The Coordinadora 
also requested a nullification of the CNE's results at the 
Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court on September 15. 
Though the possibility of reversQg the referendum results 
are practically nil, the opposition is nonetheless seeking to 
exhaust legal and administrative remedies.  End summary. 
 
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GOV Finds the Silver Lining 
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2.(U) Venezuelans had a mixed reaction to OAS Secretary 
General Cesar Gaviria's final report on OAS efforts to 
relieve Venezuela's political crisis, released on September 
13.  The GOV emphasized Gaviria's repeated advice to the 
opposition that it "get on the path to accepting" its defeat 
in the August 15 recall referendum against President Hugo 
Chavez.  Minister of Interior and Justice Jesse Chacon told 
reporters September 14 the GOV respects the report but 
disagrees with some parts of it.  Chacon said Gaviria's 
message is more or less that Venezuela has been unable to 
settle its political crisis peacefully because the opposition 
refuses to accept the results.  Venezuelan OAS Ambassador 
Jorge Valero told state television on September 16 that 
Gaviria's report is personal, does not represent the OAS's 
official position, and even contradicts the report given by 
Brazilian PermRep Valter Pecly, who headed the observation 
mission during its final stage. 
 
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Opposition Sees Political Backing 
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3. (C) Coordinadora Democratica representative Asdrubal 
Aguiar called Gaviria's report "appropriate and favorable," 
suggesting Venezuelans read it carefully to understand 
Gaviria's position.  Felipe Mujica, Secretary General of the 
Movement toward Socialism (MAS), told poloff September 16 the 
Gaviria's report has an anti-Chavez message.  Mujica said 
Gaviria lightly criticized the opposition so as to make his 
stronger attacks against Chavez, such as Gaviria's assertion 
that the Chavez's policies are eroding fundamental democratic 
principles in Venezuela, more credible.  Aguiar said 
Gaviria's report implicitly endorses the creation of an 
international group to investigate the referendum and 
determine whether there was fraud. 
 
4. (C) Coordinadora representative Jorge Casado told polcouns 
September 13 that the Coordinadora plans to make 
presentations of its fraud allegations throughout Venezuela. 
Fraud report drafter Tulio Alvarez began visiting Venezuelan 
states going to Zulia September 14 to present the 
information, Casado said, adding that other opposition 
figures would also make presentations.  Coordinadora 
representatives will also visit other countries, funding 
permitted, to present their case.  Casado said they first 
intended to visit "Friends" governments such as Mexico. 
 
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Coordinadora Contests Referendum At CNE, Supreme Court 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5. (U) Coordinadora representatives also presented a formal 
objection to the National Electoral Council (CNE) on 
 
 
September 9.  The Coordinadora documented 1,077 reports of 
irregularities related to the presidential recall referendum. 
 Coordinadora legal advisor D'lsa Solorzano told reporters 
they had specifically presented proof of manipulation of the 
electoral registry, which if found true by the CNE board 
should result in the nullification of the referendum results. 
 (The Alvarez project also alleges irregularities in the 
electoral registry.)  The CNE has 20 working days to respond 
to the Coordinadora's request.  Coordinadora negotiator 
Enrique Naime told reporters his organization had requested 
relevant documents from the CNE to facilitate the 
investigation on August 23, to which the CNE did not respond. 
 
6. (U) On September 15, Solorzano petitioned the Electoral 
Chamber of the Supreme Court for a nullification of the 
election based on violations of the constitution and of the 
Organic Law of Suffrage and Political Participation. 
Specifically, Solorzano claims the CNE violated electoral law 
by having poll workers transmit data before printing the 
tally sheets.  Solorzano said the legal motion would require 
the Electoral Chamber to request all relevant documentation 
from the CNE.  In addition, an NGO named Active Citizens 
(Ciudadania Activa) petitioned the Electoral Chamber to order 
the suspension of the October 31 regional elections until 
problems with the electoral process experienced during the 
referendum are sorted out. 
 
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CNE Directors Already Decided 
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7. (U) The pro-Chavez directors of the CNE board commented 
publicly on the opposition's request.  Director Oscar 
Battaglini said the referendum had already been decided, 
which caused the Coordinadora to demand that Battaglini 
recuse himself from deciding on the case.  Battaglini 
refused, arguing that he is not a member of a formal 
tribunal, but rather a representative of a branch of the 
Venezuelan government.  CNE President Francisco Carrasquero 
defended his institution for its handling of the referendum, 
saying that political actors are trying to impugn the CNE 
with allegations of fraud and tricks.  Director Jorge 
Rodriguez said the CNE would treat the opposition's request 
fairly, proposing even that the CNE's deliberations be made 
public. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) Gaviria's report gave the opposition a shot in the 
arm, though it does not seem to be having a lasting effect. 
Chavez opponents are exhausting legal avenues for contesting 
the referendum, which they believe necessary while moving on 
politically.  The opposition's chances of legally overturning 
the referendum results are slim-to-none.  Both the CNE and 
the Electoral Chamber are firmly in the hands of Chavez 
sympathizers who seem to have already made their decisions. 
It is possible these appeals could unearth some new 
information that exposes vulnerabilities with the CNE's 
electoral process.  This might help the opposition exact fair 
conditions from the CNE for the October 31 regional 
elections, but chances of that are similar to those of 
overturning the referendum results. 
 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02903 - CONFIDENTIAL