US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE895

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000895 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, EFIN, PINR, KCOR, MI, United Democratic Front, President, Political 
SUBJECT: UDF INSIDER VENTS ON THE MUTHARIKA ADMINISTRATION 
 
REF: LILONGWE 854 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1. (C) Ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) MP Austin Muluzi, 
son of former President Bakili Muluzi, spoke freely about the 
UDF's displeasure with President Bingu wa Mutharika at a 
September 15 lunch with poloff.  According to Austin, UDF MPs 
plan to feign support for Mutharika's budget at a September 
15 party caucus with Mutharika and then to vote against it 
the following week.  Describing the President and his 
administration as politically unsavvy, Austin explained that 
the President had been blatantly ignoring the UDF because 
Mutharika felt, until recently, he had the opposition's full 
support.  Turning to former President Muluzi's recent 
grassroots rallies, Austin said Muluzi wanted to ensure he 
had popular support in case Mutharika tries to bring Muluzi 
up on corruption charges, which both son and father were 
convinced would happen in the near future.  Austin reported 
that Muluzi had made a gentlemen's agreement with Mutharika 
that Mutharika could prosecute members of the former 
administration, as long as Muluzi was left out of it.  New to 
Malawian politics, Austin has a rather dramatic 
interpretation of current political discourse, but he is in 
all of the right conversations with all of the right people. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
TAKING THE BUDGET TO THE FLOOR 
------------------------------ 
2. (C) At a September 15 lunch with poloff, United Democratic 
Front (UDF) MP Austin Muluzi, son of former President Bakili 
Muluzi, said the current budget session of Parliament would 
finish on September 24, one week longer than expected 
(reftel).  During the session, Austin said the Mutharika 
administration would have trouble passing its budget because 
UDF MPs planned to vote against it in protest of the 
President's lack of support for the party.  According to 
Austin, UDF MPs planned to feign support for the budget at a 
September 15 party caucus with the President in order to 
preempt any suspicions the President may have. 
 
DISPLEASURE IN THE UDF: "TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
3. (C) Characterizing the vote against the budget as a form 
of protest, Austin said that many MPs in the UDF are 
discontented by Mutharika's lack of support for the party, 
willingness to try the party faithful for alleged corruption, 
and unilateral decisions without consulting the party.  It is 
only recently, according to Austin, that Mutharika has 
attended party rallies, and only under intense pressure from 
party members and decreasing support from the opposition. 
Austin also described the party's growing disdain with 
several of Mutharika's "loud" appointments, like Director of 
Public Prosecutions Ishmael Wadi and Chief of Staff Ken 
Ng'oma, who consistently lambaste Muluzi and the UDF.  Austin 
said Mutharika recently realized that his support in the 
opposition was waning and that he needed to improve relations 
with the UDF.  The feeling amongst party members, Austin 
said, is that Mutharika has done "too little, too late" for 
the party. 
 
COURTING OPPOSITION SUPPORT 
--------------------------- 
4. (C) Summarizing Mutharika's political strategy, Austin 
said Mutharika believed he could garner support from the 
opposition ranks by implementing their initiatives and 
rebuffing the UDF.  Austin cited budgets items such as the 
mausoleum for former President-for-Life Dr. Kamuzu Banda as 
evidence of Mutharika's alliance with the opposition Malawi 
Congress Party (MCP), which controls the most seats in 
Parliament.  This strategy worked for a while, Austin 
surmised, until opposition leadership began feeling that 
Mutharika was stealing their reform initiatives and taking 
all the credit.  Only with support waning in the opposition 
did Mutharika return to the UDF.  Mutharika has, however, 
continued his attempts to build his central region support by 
reverting the names of Lilongwe International Airport, 
Lilongwe Central Hospital, and Chichiri Stadium to their 
pre-multi-party democracy names of "Kamuzu Banda," a move 
which has been trumpeted by the MCP. 
 
ADVISING MUTHARIKA 
------------------ 
5. (C) According to Austin, Mutharika has three principal 
advisors: Chief of Staff Ken Ng'oma, Chief Secretary for the 
Public Service Charles Matabwa, and his Chief Security 
Advisor (no name given).  Foremost in the next tier of 
advisors is Secretary to the President and Cabinet Bright 
Msaka.  Austin, however, said Msaka, a distant relation of 
Muluzi's, was "on Muluzi's team," and Mutharika only trusted 
him to a point.  Austin also said Minister of Finance Goodall 
Gondwe, an old friend of Mutharika's, was really more in the 
Muluzi camp than the Mutharika one and that Gondwe was 
becoming "very frustrated" with Mutharika's unilateral style 
of management.  (COMMENT:  Very politically savvy, Gondwe was 
Muluzi's Economic Advisor during the second Muluzi 
administration.  He maintains close relations with both 
Muluzi and Mutharika.  END COMMENT.) 
 
MULUZI: TAKING CARE OF HIMSELF 
------------------------------ 
6. (C) Confirming Muluzi's drive for a third term was born in 
fear of what would happen after he left office, Austin said 
his father had a gentlemen's agreement with Mutharika that 
Mutharika could prosecute anyone from the previous 
administration for corruption, as long as Muluzi was left out 
of it.  Austin specifically cited former Minister of Finance 
Friday Jumbe as a potential target.  Austin said that 
contrary to the agreement, reliable information has reached 
both him and his father that Mutharika is now speaking about 
"when Muluzi is arrested," not "if." 
 
7. (C) In an attempt to keep the party together and to 
maintain his own popular support, Muluzi has started holding 
more political rallies at the grassroots.  Austin said Muluzi 
feels his only remaining strategy against a potential arrest 
for corruption is if he "has the people on his side." 
According to all indications, Muluzi remains very popular in 
the villages, while the educated urbanites would support his 
prosecution. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
8. (C) Politically immature, Austin has a dramatic 
interpretation of current political debate;  that said, he is 
at the center of all major UDF discussions.  While there may 
be growing displeasure with Mutharika in the UDF and 
Mutharika may be losing opposition support, voting the budget 
down would be an unprecedented (and unlikely) vote of no 
confidence by Parliament.  Austin clearly sees ruling party 
and opposition support as a zero-sum game.  Mutharika, on the 
other hand, has a more nuanced understanding and realizes 
that the UDF is no longer the voting block it once was and 
may only be a source of some support. 
 
9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED.  We have no trouble believing that 
Muluzi is willing to let others take the fall in order to 
save himself.  While Muluzi's former cronies will likely try 
to implicate him as well, Muluzi knows that support from the 
presidency would likely be enough to shield him from 
prosecution.  Yet, Mutharika has given no indication that 
that support will be forthcoming.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC