US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2885

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002885 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS: WHAT SHOULD BE AND 
WHAT IS 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
Reason 1.5(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Venezuela's gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional 
deputy elections, scheduled for October 31, are cloaked in 
uncertainty with little more than six weeks before the date. 
Procedurally, there are questions regarding who the members 
of the regional and municipal electoral boards will be, if 
these local boards will tally and announce the results as the 
law provides, how many new members of voting tables will be 
assigned, and if the Electoral Registry will be opened to the 
voters for changes and corrections.  With allegations of 
fraud and irregularities involving the August 15 referendum 
still in the open, opposition participation remains 
uncertain.  End Summary. 
 
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The Timeline and the Reality 
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2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced 
gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional deputy elections are 
scheduled for October 31 and released a timeline leading up 
to the elections.  The CNE is currently discussing where, 
how, and by whom the votes will be tallied, according to 
Diego Acevedo, an assistant in the office of CNE Director 
Sobella Mejias.  There is no guarantee, he said, that the 
tally will be done by the regional and municipal boards as 
the law provides. These local boards are also to check and 
certify the electronic voting machines.  However, there has 
been controversy surrounding the local boards since the CNE 
removed some of their members for having signed the petitions 
for the recall of President Hugo Chavez.  The CNE replaced 
them with "unbiased" representatives before the August 15 
referendum, effectively giving Chavez supporters control of 
the regional boards.  While opposition candidates are calling 
for the reinstitution of equitable regional and municipal 
boards before the regional elections, Acevedo said it was 
unlikely the CNE would remove the most recently appointed 
board members. 
 
3. (U) Between September 20-21, the CNE also is to appoint 
poll workers.  On September 2, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez 
said the CNE would consider doubling the number of electoral 
tables from 12,000 to 24,000.  Rodriguez also noted that the 
creation of new voting centers was under discussion. 
Doubling the voting tables would mean appointing 60,000 new 
poll workers (5 members per voting table) before the regional 
elections. 
 
4. (C) The CNE is scheduled to publish the electoral register 
between September 14-16.  According to Diego Acevedo, the CNE 
has not determined if the electoral register will be opened 
for registered voters to correct or update their information, 
including the disputed additions to the electoral registry 
and voting center transfers before the August 15 referendum. 
The Register, however, was open from September 4-8 for 
persons who recently became of voting age (18) to register 
and for voters who were unintentionally eliminated to file a 
complaint. 
 
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Testing, Testing 
----------------- 
 
5. (U) On October 3, a voting simulation is scheduled to test 
the automatic voting machines and the transmission of data 
from the voting centers to the totalization centers.  There 
also is to be a test of the totalization and 
telecommunications programs from October 8-12.  The CNE 
already conducted a voting simulation September 3 to 
determine the amount of time it would take each voter to vote 
with the automatic touch screens. According to the Minister 
of Communication and Information, Andres Izarra, the delay 
time is up to eight minutes because of the complexity of the 
voting and the number of possible candidates. 
 
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Unanswered Questions For The Opposition 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) With allegations of fraud and irregularities involving 
the August 15 referendum still in the open and significant 
changes to the electoral process unlikely, opposition 
participation remains uncertain.  Acevedo also said the 
Coordinadora's inability to unite and form one list of 
demands for the CNE was a weakness the CNE would take 
advantage of by acquiescing to the most inconsequential 
proposals from the "laundry list".  Some of the various 
demands from the political parties and NGOs that form the 
Coordinadora are a complete audit of the Electoral Registry, 
a total manual count, the elimination of blank voting 
notebooks, equally constituted regional and electoral boards, 
the reinstitution of the voting table members who were 
removed (up to 18,000), the auditing of software and hardware 
for the electronic voting machines, and a public audit of the 
voting results. 
 
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Chavista Outlook 
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7. (C) Chavez's Movimiento Quinta Repulica (MVR) has objected 
to the October 31 regional election date, proposing regional 
elections for October 10 instead.  According to Acevedo, this 
minor disagreement is being used as a smokescreen to show CNE 
decisions are not always partial to Chavez.  MVR Deputy 
William Lara said if the date was not changed to October 10, 
the MVR candidates would still win on October 31.  Lara also 
said the MVR was closer to achieving unity for the regional 
elections and that sustained efforts and dialogue would 
produce visible results within a month. He noted, however, 
that in some municipalities the MVR would not be able to 
achieve complete unity, but reiterated that alternate 
"revolutionary" candidates would be "self-excluding" 
themselves by challenging Chavez's chosen candidate.  Lara 
was referring to MVR Deputy Desiree Santos' statements to the 
press that the candidates Chavez supported were chosen by the 
electoral base, and not simply appointed, so candidates 
running against them would be "self-excluded." 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) has demonstrated 
that  strict adherence to the electoral laws is not the norm 
in Venezuela.  Improvization on rules and regulations will 
likely continue to mark the preparations for the regional 
elections.  The opposition is facing unfavorable terms like 
biased regional and municipal boards with little hope of 
achieving significant changes in the electoral process before 
the regional elections.  The traditional opposition voters 
are disillusioned and many are not likely to vote under 
current electoral conditions.  To stay alive in the regional 
elections, the opposition needs to unify competing candidates 
and motivate its electoral base. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02885 - CONFIDENTIAL