US embassy cable - 04ABUJA1584

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: INTERNAL SQUABBLES THREATEN NIGERIA'S MAIN 
OPPOSITION PARTY 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  The ANPP, Nigeria's leading opposition 
party, issued a series of competing suspensions of senior 
leaders from the party last week in an replay of a theme all 
to common in Nigerian politics.  For now, however, the 
suspensions have been lifted by the competing factions 
pending reconciliation meetings likely to occur in the next 
week.  The main players included ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet, 
ANPP presidential aspirant John Nwodo, Sokoto Governor 
Bafarawa, and ANPP 2004 (and possibly 2007) presidential 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari, with possible behind-the-scenes 
appearances by President Obasanjo, VP Atiku and former 
president Babangida.  While the internal struggle could 
severely cripple the ANPP, it should have no effect on 
Buhari's election tribunal challenge to the 2003 election 
currently wending its way through Nigeria's legal system.  It 
does, however, highlight the dominance of money politics and 
the ruling PDP's activities in other parties.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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CAST FOR THIS (IM)MORALITY PLAY 
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2. (C) The Main Actors: 
 
--  All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP) Chairman DON ETIEBET 
has been unseen and ineffective for some time.  Complaints 
about his inactivity have continued during his tenure as 
party chairman.  His support of the State of Emergency in 
Plateau State this year was widely viewed as a signal he had 
finally succumbed to legal and financial persuasion from the 
ruling PDP and the GON's security services.  There is a 
precedent.  Etiebet had been a major critic of military 
dictator Abacha's self-succession efforts until, after a 
two-day sojourn with the State Security Services (SSS), he 
appeared on television, a bit bedraggled, to claim he had 
"seen God" and decided that Abacha was not a bad chap.  After 
release from a more recent detention a few months ago, the 
legal difficulties facing his oil business seem to have 
disappeared.  With this apparently new-found financial 
security, Etiebet has grown strangely averse to agitation on 
behalf of the opposition. 
 
--  ANPP Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa views 
himself a rising star in northern politics, with some 
"northern elites" encouraging him to run for president in 
2007.  He views himself as leader of the ANPP governors, and 
organized a "Northern Governors Forum," that includes both 
ANPP and PDP governors.  His critics in the ANPP accuse 
Bafarawa of undermining Buhari's suit against the 2003 
election.  Bafarawa's presidential aspirations may be more to 
position himself for a VP slot, or Senate President or a 
third term as Governor, but he is a canny and somewhat 
principled politician who normally avoids rocking the boat 
past an acceptable level. 
 
--  Former Minister of Information and ANPP Presidential 
aspirant John Nwodo is a leading politicians from Nigeria's 
Southeast.  He has strong ties in both the ANPP and ruling 
PDP, and is admired by groups throughout the nation.  Since 
losing the nomination to Buhari in 2003, he has continued to 
back ANPP candidates while maintaining a low public profile. 
Nwodo remains an important link between north and south, 
especially after the assassination of leading South-South 
opposition politician Marshall Harry in the run-up to the 
2003 elections, and will be influential in Nigerian politics 
over the next few years. 
 
--  Former head of state and ANPP 2003 Presidential candidate 
Buhari remains one of the most popular politicians in the 
country.  Having rallied grassroots support throughout the 
nation during his 2003 campaign, his stand opposing the 
election outcome though the courts has further improved his 
image throughout the country.  In spite of the efforts of 
Obasanjo to frighten the electorate with claims of religious 
extremism, Buhari is still capable of drawing crowds in the 
north and south of Nigeria.  While delays in the tribunal 
process have sapped some of the enthusiasm of his northern 
supporters, his popularity remains high and his relationship 
with Igbo leader Emeka Ojukwu remains good. 
 
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STAGING 
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3. (C) In the current face-off, Etiebet is accusing Sokoto 
State Governor Bafarawa of engaging in "anti-party 
activities."   Etiebet initially suspended Bafarawa from the 
party, reportedly accomplishing this by sharing Naira 7.2 
million (about USDOLS 54,000) with many ANPP state party 
chairmen and executive committee members. 
 
4. (C) In response, Sokoto ANPP Governor Bafarawa mobilized 
his own group of party chairmen -- with the help of the 
Zamfara and Kebbi state governors and, reportedly, at least 
Naira 20 million (about 154,000 USDOLS) of state government 
funds -- to suspend Etiebet.  The official reason was that 
Etiebet had allegedly "diverted election funds" during the 
2003 campaign and was cooperating with President Obasanjo on 
various issues.  In a meeting of ANPP state party chairmen, 
Zamfara Governor Sani is said to have threatened Etiebet, 
saying, "Let's vote tomorrow and see who can bring more money 
to buy the chairmen." 
 
5. (C) Both sets of suspensions have since been rolled back. 
ANPP officials have arranged for reconciliation meetings 
between the two groups, but antagonisms still remain.  In 
addition to Etiebet's relative inaction except for supporting 
the President's State of Emergency declaration in Plateau 
State, his critics claim one of Obasanjo's advisors visited 
Etiebet just before he paid out the money to the ANPP 
chairmen.  Bafarawa's critics point to Bafarawa's 
presidential ambitions, encouraged by members of the 
influential Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), and criticize him 
for destabilizing the party. 
 
6. (C) Into this mix come Northern Nigeria's Kebbi and 
Zamfara governors.  Zamfara's Sani is widely believed to be 
working for former head of state Babangida in an effort to 
guarantee him an ANPP platform for his 2007 presidential bid 
in the event that the ruling PDP does not nominate Babangida. 
 He has made several visits to Babangida's hometown recently 
and has had a relationship with Babangida for many years. 
Kebbi's Aliero is believed to have made the same offer to 
current Vice President Atiku Abubakar, based on Atiku's many 
visits to Kebbi and their long personal friendship. 
 
7. (C) In the Southeast, a caucus of ANPP leaders there met 
throughout last week in an attempt to either resolve the 
crisis or determine their own future.  Their natural leader, 
Nwodo, has thus far refused the ANPP chairmanship, commenting 
to Poloff that if he took it "Nigeria would burn."  While 
Nwodo remains hesitant, the Southeast caucus is faced with 
two choices:  stick with Nwodo or jump from the ANPP to 
Ojukwu's APGA. 
 
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DENOUEMENT 
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8. (C) There may be several more acts, but like a bad movie 
the possible endings seem clear in advance.  Either the ANPP 
will put itself back together as a coherent national party, 
even as only a vehicle for a national campaign such as 
Buhari's for president in 2003, or it will join Nigeria's 
other opposition parties as a regional also-ran.  President 
Obasanjo's ruling PDP would obviously benefit, as it has 
before.  The PDP is somewhat such a vehicle and has its own 
divisions, although more of its own making than from efforts 
by outsiders.  As the jockeying for support in the 2007 
elections increases, it is not unthinkable that Obasanjo's 
estranged VP Atiku could attempt to move his supporters to 
the ANPP.  And while Babangida is nowhere near as strong as 
most Nigerians believe, any move by Obasanjo to change the 
Constitution so as to give himself a third term could lead 
Babangida toward the ANPP too. 
 
9. (C) The ANPP internal squabble could have serious 
implications for its continued viability, but should have no 
effect on the ongoing election tribunal contesting the 2003 
Presidential elections.  Buhari's case resumed September 14, 
and he has yet to take a public stand on the intra-ANPP 
wrangling.  He is in Abuja this week and is expected to step 
into the fray.  Interestingly, Etiebet accompanied Buhari to 
court on September 14, the first time Etiebet has appeared 
there in a while. 
 
10. (C) COMMENT:  The most troubling aspect of this affair is 
the continued use of money to influence party officials. 
Nigerians seem to tolerate the siphoning of government funds 
(both federal and state, and by all parties) to manipulate 
politics.  Obasanjo's publicly declared fight against 
corruption, and his call for reducing the role of money in 
politics, seem to have had no impact on such practices within 
his or any other party. 
CAMPBELL