US embassy cable - 01HARARE3062

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003062 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/15/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI EMERGES UNSCATHED FROM ATTACK ON HIS VEHICLE; 
MDC SUSPENDS FOUR MPS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
REF: HARARE 2239 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI ESCAPED INJURY ON OCTOBER 12 AFTER HIS CONVOY WAS 
 
SIPDIS 
ATTACKED BY STONE-THROWING ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS.  TWO WINDOWS IN HIS 
VEHICLE WERE SHATTERED AND THE VEHICLE'S BODY WAS DAMAGED.  POLICE 
WERE UNHELPFUL AND FAILED TO ARREST OR CHARGE ANY OF THE 
PERPETRATORS.  THE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS APPEARED TO HAVE PRIOR 
KNOWLEDGE OF THE CONVOY'S ROUTE AND TIMING.  IN AN UNRELATED 
DEVELOPMENT, FOUR MDC MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT WERE ON OCTOBER 13 
TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED FROM THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE 
COMMITTEE PENDING AN INVESTIGATION INTO THEIR ROLE IN FACTIONAL 
DISPUTES SIMMERING FOR ALMOST A MONTH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ATTACK ON TSVANGIRAI 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) ON OCTOBER 12, THE VEHICLE IN WHICH MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WAS RIDING WAS 
ATTACKED BY A STONE-THROWING MOB.  MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN 
NCUBE, TOLD US THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN ON HIS WAY TO ADDRESS 
PARTY OFFICIALS IN SANYATI, SEVERAL HUNDRED KILOMETERS WEST OF 
HARARE, WHEN APPROXIMATELY SEVENTY YOUTHS EMERGED FROM THE BUSHES 
AND BLOCKED THE ROAD.  THEY THREW STONES AND STICKS, SHATTERING 
TWO WINDOWS IN TSVANGIRAI'S VEHICLE, INCLUDING THE ONE IN THE REAR 
NEXT TO THE SEAT IN WHICH THE OPPOSITION LEADER WAS SITTING.  TWO 
STONES LANDED IN THE BACKSEAT BESIDE TSVANGIRAI.  ACCORDING TO 
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NCUBE, THE MOB DISPERSED AFTER A BODYGUARD IN THE SECOND CAR FIRED 
A PISTOL IN THE AIR. 
 
3.  (C) THE CONVOY SPED TO THE NEAREST POLICE STATION, IN KADOMA, 
TO REPORT THE INCIDENT.  NCUBE TOLD US THAT THE POLICE APPEARED 
COMPLETELY INDIFFERENT AND ONLY SEEMED INTERESTED IN FINDING OUT 
WHO HAD DISCHARGED THE PISTOL.  NONE OF THE MDC REPRESENTATIVES 
HAD MENTIONED THAT A SHOT HAD BEEN FIRED, AND THUS THEY ASSUMED 
THAT THE POLICE HAD WITNESSED WHAT HAD TAKEN PLACE.  NONE OF THE 
PERPETRATORS HAS BEEN DETAINED OR CHARGED. 
 
4.  (C) FORTUNATELY, NEITHER TSVANGIRAI NOR ANYONE ACCOMPANYING 
HIM WAS HURT.  WHEN POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ASKED WHETHER THE MDC 
CONSIDERED THIS AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL 
ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA REFUSED TO RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY. 
"ANYTIME YOU SEND 75 PEOPLE TO THROW STONES THROUGH A CAR WINDOW, 
YOU CANNOT GUARANTEE WHAT THE RESULT WILL BE," MUDZINGWA SAID. 
"FATALITIES COULD OCCUR."  HE POINTED OUT THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO 
CONTROL A STONE-THROWING MOB ONCE IT IS UNLEASHED. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5.  (C) THE OCTOBER 12 INCIDENT IS THE SECOND ATTACK ON A 
TSVANGIRAI CONVOY IN LESS THAN THREE MONTHS -- THE FIRST OCCURRED 
 
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JULY 22 IN BINDURA (REFTEL).  THE TACTICS USED IN BOTH INCIDENTS 
WERE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL, WITH AMBUSHES CARRIED OUT IN ISOLATED 
LOCATIONS ALONG RURAL STRETCHES OF ROAD, WHILE TSVANGIRAI WAS 
TRAVELLING TO PUBLICLY ADVERTISED MEETINGS.  THE CIRCUMSTANCES 
SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF PLANNING BY THE ASSAILANTS.  WHILE THIS 
APPEARED TO BE CONTINUED INTIMIDATION, THE OCTOBER 12 ATTACK 
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CLEARLY COULD HAVE KILLED TSVANGIRAI, AN OUTCOME WHICH WOULD HAVE 
SPARKED SERIOUS UNREST.  AT A MINIMUM, BOTH ATTACKS ARE CONSISTENT 
WITH THE PATTERN DURING THE PAST YEAR-AND-A-HALF OF GOVERNMENT- 
SANCTIONED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AIMED AT THE MDC LEADERSHIP 
AND PARTY SUPPORTERS.  AFFORDING SOME DEGREE OF DEFENSIVE 
PROTECTION TO TSVANGIRAI AS HE TRAVELS ABOUT THE COUNTRY IS HIGHLY 
DESIRABLE. 
 
MDC OFFICIALS SUSPENDED 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (U) MEANWHILE, IN AN UNRELATED DEVELOPMENT, FOUR MDC MEMBERS 
OF PARLIAMENT WERE ON OCTOBER 13 SUSPENDED FROM THE PARTY'S 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE PENDING AN INVESTIGATION INTO THEIR 
ROLE IN FACTIONAL DISPUTES SIMMERING FOR ALMOST A MONTH.  THE 
SUSPENDED MPS INCLUDE LEARNMORE JONGWE, PARTY SPOKESMAN; JOB 
SIKHALA, SECRETARY FOR SECURITY; TAPIWA MASHAKADA, THE SHADOW 
MINISTER OF FINANCE; AND TAFADZWA MUSEKIWA.  WELSHMAN NCUBE TOLD 
JOURNALISTS THAT THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DECIDED TO 
TEMPORARILY SUSPEND THE FOUR, ALONG WITH THE PARTY'S PROVINCIAL 
CHAIRMAN IN THE TOWN OF CHITUNGWIZA -- ALEX MUSUNDIRE -- UNTIL A 
SPECIAL COMMISSION OF INQUIRY HAD CONCLUDED ITS WORK.   THE 
BICKERING BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS IN THIS GROUP, ONE LED BY SIKHALA 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3587 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PRS-00 
      P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------2F4393  151554Z /38 
P 151523Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0027 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003062 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/15/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI EMERGES UNSCATHED FROM ATTACK ON HIS VEHICLE; 
MDC SUSPENDS FOUR MPS 
 
AND THE OTHER BY MASHAKADA, HAS SPILLED VERY MUCH INTO THE PUBLIC 
DOMAIN.  THEIR SUPPORTERS DISRUPTED THE SEPTEMBER 16 ELECTION OF A 
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NEW PARTY EXECUTIVE FOR HARARE PROVINCE, FORCING A POSTPONEMENT OF 
THE VOTE, AND CLASHED WITH EACH OTHER IN THE HARARE HIGH-DENSITY 
SUBURB OF ST. MARY'S.  IN ADDITION, SIKHALA LEAKED TO THE PRESS A 
LETTER HE WROTE TO TSVANGIRAI DEMANDING MASHAKADA'S EXPULSION FROM 
THE PARTY. 
 
7.  (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE TOLD US ON OCTOBER 15 THAT THE MDC'S 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE WAS NOT HAPPY THAT THE FOUR MPS HAD CHOSEN TO 
AIR THEIR GRIEVANCES IN PUBLIC WITHOUT SEEKING SOME SORT OF 
RESOLUTION WITHIN THE PARTY.  NCUBE CONFIDED HIS SUSPICION THAT 
THESE INCIDENTS ARE PARTLY THE RESULT OF AN ENERGETIC OPERATION BY 
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) TO DESTABILIZE THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY FROM WITHIN.  THE MDC LEADERSHIP, HE CONTINUED, 
SUSPECTS THAT ONE OF THE FOUR SUSPENDED OFFICIALS IS A KEY 
OPERATIVE IN THIS CIO CAMPAIGN.  GANDI MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT HE 
DOUBTED THAT THIS SITUATION WOULD INFLICT LASTING DAMAGE ON THE 
MDC, SO LONG AS THE PARTY ACTED DECISIVELY AGAINST THOSE INVOLVED. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) NCUBE'S CONCERN ABOUT CIO ATTEMPTS TO DESTROY THE MDC FROM 
WITHIN IS WELL-FOUNDED, AS THE INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION HAS 
PREVIOUSLY -- AND SUCCESSFULLY -- PURSUED THIS APPROACH WITH OTHER 
OPPOSITION PARTIES.  THE CIO THEORY, HOWEVER, EXPLAINS ONLY PART 
OF THE CURRENT SITUATION.  SIKHALA AND MASHAKADA ARE ALSO YOUNG, 
AMBITIOUS POLITICIANS ATTEMPTING TO SETTLE PERSONAL SCORES AS THEY 
JOCKEY AGAINST ONE ANOTHER FOR ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE WITHIN THE 
PARTY. 
 
9.  (C) ALTHOUGH THE SIKHALA-MASHAKADA DISPUTE IS FAR FROM A FATAL 
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BLOW TO THE MDC, IT IS AN IMPORTANT TEST OF THE PARTY LEADERSHIP'S 
CAPACITY TO RESOLVE INTERNAL CONFLICTS.  THERE ARE MEMBERS OF THE 
MDC WHO HAVE NOT APPRECIATED THE FACT THAT A PARTY CAN BE 
DEMOCRATIC BUT STILL INSIST THAT MEMBERS BE DISCIPLINED AND 
RESPECT PARTY POLICIES AND PROTOCOL.  THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAS, 
UNTIL NOW, BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE AGAINST MEMBERS WHO FLOUTED 
IMPORTANT PARTY POSITIONS, OUT OF FEAR THAT IT WOULD BE PORTRAYED 
AS INTOLERANT OR ANTI-DEMOCRATIC.  THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY 
PROVIDES A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REIN IN WAYWARD MEMBERS AND TO SEND 
A STRONG MESSAGE ABOUT HOW THE PARTY WILL HANDLE SIMILAR PROBLEMS 
IN THE FUTURE.  IN THE MEANTIME, THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA 
HAVE HAD A FIELD DAY PORTRAYING THE MDC AS A PARTY IN CRISIS. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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