US embassy cable - 01GABORONE3355

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 003355 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:  PREL, PTER, BC 
SUBJECT:  MANY BATSWANA SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS ABOUT U.S. 
STRIKES 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  ENERGETIC OUTREACH EFFORTS BY THE 
AMBASSADOR AND MISSION STAFF REVEAL THAT INITIAL 
SYMPATHY FOR THE U.S. POST-SEPTEMBER 11 HAS ERODED WITH 
RECENT AIRSTRIKES AGAINST THE TALIBAN.  BATSWANA 
QUESTION U.S. FOREIGN POLICIES; COMPARE THE ASCETIC 
IMAGE OF OSAMA BIN LADEN WITH THE ARRAY OF TECHNICAL 
WEAPONS BEING AIMED AT HIM; AND TALLY THE CIVILIAN 
CASUALTIES OF STRIKES AGAINST THE TALIBAN.   THEY ASK 
FOR HARD PROOF OF BIN LADEN'S GUILT; THEY FEAR THE 
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WORLD OF A HEAD-ON CONFRONTATION 
WITH TERROR.  ULTIMATELY HOWEVER, THEY VIEW SEPTEMBER 
11 - AND TERRORISM IN GENERAL - AS SOMEONE ELSE'S 
PROBLEM, NOT THEIRS.  OUR SUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO WIN GOB 
SUPPORT COME IN THE FACE OF SOME LOCAL MEDIA WHICH 
PRESS THE GOB TO REMAIN NEUTRAL.  OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH 
LOCAL EDITORS, MUSLIM OFFICIALS, BUSINESS 
ORGANIZATIONS, AND KEY OPINION MAKERS HAVE SLOWED, BUT 
NOT STOPPED, THIS TREND.  END SUMMARY. 
 
EXPRESSIONS OF DOUBT 
 
2.  THE AMBASSADOR'S 10/9 MEETING WITH THREE MEDIA 
EDITORS WAS ILLUSTRATIVE OF MANY OF THE CONVERSATIONS 
HELD BY MISSION STAFF.  THE THREE VOLUNTEERED THAT THE 
SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS WERE EVIL, AND IN NO WAY 
JUSTIFIED.  THERE WAS AN IMMEDIATE WAVE OF SYMPATHY AND 
RESPECT FOR THE USG WHICH BEGAN TO DIMINISH AS IT 
BECAME APPARENT THE USG WOULD RESPOND WITH SIGNIFICANT 
FORCE.  THE EDITORS WERE NOT CONVINCED UBL WAS GUILTY, 
EVEN THOUGH THEY CONCEDED HE LIKELY WAS, AND SUGGESTED 
THAT THE USG SHOULD WORK HARDER TO MAKES ITS PUBLIC 
CASE.   OVERALL THE EDITORS FELT BATSWANA REACTION TO 
THE AIRSTRIKES WAS MIXED. 
 
3.  THE EDITORS ALSO QUESTIONED THE MEANS THE USG WAS 
USING TO TRY AND APPREHEND UBL.  MEDIA DEPICTED UBL AS 
AN ASCETIC (ONE EDITOR SAID "A SAINT") WHO HAD 
RENOUNCED AN OSTENTATIOUS LIFESTYLE TO FIGHT WARS OF 
LIBERATION.  HE WAS PHOTOGRAPHED IN ROBES IN THE 
DESERT, SOMETIMES WITH HIS FAMILY.  IT IS DIFFICULT FOR 
THE PUBLIC TO IMPUTE TO HIM THE CRIMES HE IS CHARGED 
WITH WHEN THEY ARE FACED WITH THESE IMAGES.  OPPOSITE 
THIS SIMPLE FIGURE STOOD THE ARMED MIGHT OF THE USG, 
WITH SMART BOMBS AND HIGH-TECH AIRCRAFT POISED TO 
ATTACK.  THE AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED THE UBL NETWORK OF 
ASSOCIATES, THE COMMITMENT TO TERROR, THE POSSIBLE 
STOCK MARKET MANIPULATIONS TO STRESS THAT THIS WAS NOT 
A SIMPLE MAN OR ORGANIZATION.  THE EDITORS RETURNED 
REPEATEDLY, HOWEVER, TO THE IDEA THAT THE USG WAS 
TRYING TO APPREHEND AN INDIVIDUAL BY USING 
OVERWHELMING, AND POSSIBLY INDISCRIMINATE, FORCE.  THEY 
HAD LITTLE INTEREST IN THE TALIBAN; THEY DID GIVE A 
GREAT DEAL OF WEIGHT TO CIVILIAN DEATHS CAUSED BY USG 
ATTACKS AND THE REFUGEE FLOWS OUT OF AFGHANISTAN. 
FINALLY, THEY NOTED THAT RESPONSES TO SEPTEMBER 11 
COULD GENERATE A NEW ROUND OF TERRORIST ATTACKS BY 
GROUPS NOT EVEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEPTEMBER 11 BUT NOW 
RESPONDING TO ATTACKS ON THEIR COLLEAGUES. 
 
4.  PRESSED TO OFFER BETTER ALTERNATIVES, SOME 
SUGGESTED RELYING MORE ON THE UN AND A BROADER 
COALITION EFFORT SO THAT IT DID NOT LOOK LIKE A US-ONLY 
EFFORT.  ANOTHER SUGGESTED PUBLICIZING A STRONGER CASE 
AGAINST UBL.  ALL CONCURRED THAT THE USG SHOULD 
CONSIDER OTHER, MORE DIRECTED, MEANS PROPORTIONATE TO 
ITS ENDS - JUSTICE AGAINST THE PERPETRATORS OF 
SEPTEMBER 11.  THEY ALSO SEVERAL TIMES SUGGESTED THAT 
THE U.S. WAS PERCEIVED AS A "BULLY" INTERNATIONALLY, 
AND THAT THE WAR ON TERRORISM LOSES GENERAL APPEAL THE 
MORE IT IS VIEWED AS PRIMARILY A U.S. EFFORT. 
 
OUTRIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE USG 
 
5.  BOTSWANA MEDIA AND LETTERS TO THE EDITOR HAVE BEEN 
ON BALANCE MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE ABOUT THE US. 
USING LOCAL AUTHORS AS WELL AS INTERNATIONAL PRESS 
SERVICE PIECES, THE PRIVATE PRESS HAS ARGUED THAT THE 
U.S.'S UNILATERAL APPROACH TO DIPLOMACY AND ITS MIDDLE 
EAST POLICIES CONTRIBUTED TO THE SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS. 
PRESS HAS ALSO REPORTED CONCERN THAT U.S.-LED ATTACKS 
MAY PROMPT RETALIATIONS.  ONE PAPER EXTENSIVELY 
REPORTED ON A TRAVELLING AMERICAN FAMILY'S BELIEF THAT 
RECENT U.S. ACTIONS WERE IN ERROR; THE PIECE RAN 
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE AMBASSADOR'S OP-ED ON WHY 
BOTSWANA SHOULD SUPPORT THE U.S.  LETTERS HAVE ALSO 
CRITICIZED THE GOB FOR CHOOSING TO SIDE WITH THE U.S. 
IN NO CASE, HOWEVER, HAVE MEDIA ADVOCATED ACTIONS 
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, ITS CITIZENS OR 
INSTALLATIONS. 
 
6.  AMBASSADOR, POL/ECON CHIEF AND OTHERS HAVE 
EXTENSIVELY ENGAGED THE ONLY HUMAN RIGHTS NGO IN 
GABORONE, DITSHWANELO, ON BOTH THE SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS 
AND THE OCTOBER 8 STRIKES.  ALICE MOGWE, THE 
ORGANIZATION'S EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, HAS CONSISTENTLY 
ARGUED THAT LAW ENFORCEMENT AND PROSECUTION OF THE 
GUILTY WAS THE ONLY LEGITIMATE MEANS OF RESPONSE TO THE 
SEPTEMBER 11 ATROCITIES.  HER ORGANIZATION'S VIEWS HAVE 
ALSO BEEN PUBLISHED IN THE LOCAL MEDIA. 
 
AND SUPPORT FOR OUR APPROACH 
 
7.  BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL SECTORS HAVE BEEN MORE 
SUPPORTIVE.  BUSINESS TRAVELLERS RETURNING TO BOTSWANA 
RECOUNT NEW RESTRICTIONS AT AIRPORTS, AND CLOSE CALLS 
BY FAMILY OR COLLEAGUES, ANECDOTES WHICH BRING THE 
REALITY OF SEPTEMBER 11 CLOSER TO HOME.  AFTER THE 
AMBASSADOR'S 10/12 SPEECH TO THE ROTARY CLUB, 
PARTICIPANTS WERE MORE WILLING TO ACCEPT THAT TERRORISM 
COULD TAKE PLACE IN BOTSWANA AND THAT THE GLOBAL 
COALITION ON TERRORISM MUST SUCCEED.  THEY WERE ALSO 
CURIOUS TO LEARN WHETHER THE USG WOULD SHIFT SOME OF 
ITS MIDDLE EAST POLICIES AS A RESULT OF THE ATTACKS. 
AMBASSADOR'S AND PAO'S CONTACTS WITH ACADEMICS ALSO 
ENCOUNTER A GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE VIEW. 
 
8.  COMMENT:   PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. POST- 
OCTOBER 8 HAS GENERALLY COME FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND 
ELITES; WE SUSPECT THERE IS MORE UNSTATED POPULAR 
SUPPORT THAN REGISTERS IN THE PRESS.  WE WILL CONTINUE 
TO TARGET OUTREACH PROGRAMS AT THAT BROADER BUT LESS- 
DEFINED SPECTRUM OF BATSWANA WHO HARBOR CONTINUED 
DOUBTS ABOUT UBL GUILT, USG RESPONSE AND QUESTION THE 
RELEVANCE OF SEPTEMBER 11 TO BOTSWANA. 
 
LANGE