US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1521

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  OPPOSITION IN NO RUSH TO JOIN PROPOSED 
COUNCIL ON PEACE TALKS 
 
 
Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe indicated that his 
United National Party (UNP) is in no hurry to accept 
President Kumaratunga's invitation to join a multi-partisan 
advisory council on possible peace talks with the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  The President realizes she 
cannot "rein in" the radical chauvinist Janatha Vimukti 
Peramuna (JVP) and has no fallback strategy to restart talks, 
he charged.  While the UNP will support any proposal that 
will advance prospects for peace, Wickremesinghe suggested, 
his party will insist that the President first get 
tendentious members of her own house--especially the JVP--in 
order before asking the Opposition to do the heavy lifting on 
the peace process.  End summary. 
 
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UNP BIDING TIME ON PROPOSED ADVISORY COUNCIL 
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2.  (C) In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Opposition Leader (and former Prime Minister) Ranil 
Wickremesinghe confirmed that President Chandrika Kumaratunga 
had invited his United National Party (UNP) to participate in 
a proposed multi-partisan council to advise the Government of 
Sri Lanka (GSL) on the peace process.  Wickremesinghe said 
that he told the President that UNP participation would 
depend on how the council is structured.  Wickremesinghe sees 
it as a forum where the parties would simply present their 
views, not debate them or seek consensus.  If instead the 
council functions as a public debating forum or an all-party 
conference, it could end up hindering, instead of helping, 
the peace process, he suggested.  Moreover, members should 
have the option of communicating views to the GSL in private. 
 The President reportedly told the Opposition Leader that the 
GSL would forward a formal proposal for the council for UNP 
review. 
 
3.  (C)  Formation of an advisory council should follow, 
rather than precede, the first round of resumed talks, 
Wickremesinghe said.  He suggested that the effort expended 
by the President to form an advisory council on as-yet 
unscheduled talks would be better directed at actually 
getting consensus to restart negotiations.  To do so, 
however, the President knows that she will have to get the 
agreement of left-wing nationalist coalition partner Janatha 
Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), which, in Wickremesinghe's 
estimation, she cannot do.  With her efforts to "rein in" the 
JVP unsuccessful so far, she is attempting, through the 
proposed Advisory Council, to get other parties to take 
public positions on controversial topics like an interim 
administration for the north and east, he charged.  While the 
UNP will support any interim arrangement that meets the 
criteria of the Tokyo Declaration, the party is unwilling to 
make public that support unless the JVP, which continues to 
criticize the UNP for being "soft" on the Tigers, also gets 
on board.  "The President can't have her cake and eat it 
too," he concluded. 
 
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UNP COUNTER-CAMPAIGN 
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4.  (C)  Given current unfavorable political dynamics, the 
visit of Norwegian Special Envoy Solheim is likely to do 
little to advance the peace process, he predicted.  (Note: 
Solheim arrives in Colombo September 14.  End note.) 
Wickremesinghe believes Kumaratunga did not bargain on being 
saddled with contentious coalition partners like the JVP--she 
was banking on either gaining a solid majority or remaining 
in the Opposition--and has thus not developed a fallback 
strategy on how to restart negotiations under these 
precarious conditions.  "I couldn't carry forward the peace 
process with a coalition," he observed.  Lacking the votes to 
carry her constituent assembly proposal forward and with the 
economy turning sour, Kumaratunga's government will likely 
"muddle along for some time."  Current UNP strategy is 
focusing on a campaign to put pressure on the the President 
to resume talks, he said, adding that the full-court press 
will likely begin around December or January when the full 
effects of expected price increases will kick in and the 
government will be most vulnerable. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C) A multipartisan council to advise the GSL on the 
peace process is a good idea in principle.  As long as the 
President remains unable to count on the JVP, her largest 
coalition partner, however, it is a bit unrealistic to expect 
the Opposition to support it.  Wickremesinghe's UNP clearly 
expects to profit politically from the President's 
predicament.  By advancing the proposal, the GSL may have 
been hoping to create the illusion of progress toward 
negotiations.  If so, that plan may backfire, with the lack 
of multipartisan support the proposal has attracted so far 
instead highlighting the lack of movement and consensus on 
the peace process. 
LUNSTEAD