US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS3881

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003881 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/RUS, EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, RS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EUR DAS TEFFT REVIEWS RUSSIA, UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND 
BELARUS WITH EU OFFICIALS 
 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
 1.  (C)  Summary.  In meetings with EU officials on 
September 10, EUR DAS Tefft discussed recent events in 
Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus.  EU officials viewed 
the Beslan attack as a failure of Putin's Chechnya policy, 
expected him to respond by doing more of the same, and 
predicted cooler EU-Russian relations as Putin moves away 
from the shared values embodied in the OSCE.  Free and fair 
presidential elections in Ukraine would "change everything" 
in EU relations with Kiev.  The EU agreed to consider the US 
draft text on Moldova's security pact initiative, both as a 
means of blocking a possible "Kozak II" plan from Russia and 
to spur a pentagonal meeting.  Lukashenko's announced 
referendum was a step backward for Belarus, and EU officials 
suggested DAS Tefft explore with his Dutch counterpart the 
timing and purpose of a possible joint demarche to Minsk in 
October.  EU officials in the Council and Commission 
expressed firm commitment to coordinating policy and actions 
in the region with the US.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) On September 10, EUR DAS John Tefft met with Council 
Secretariat and Commission officials to discuss recent events 
 
SIPDIS 
in and US-EU coordination on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and 
Moldova.  At the Council Secretariat, DAS Tefft met with 
Robert Cooper, Solana's Foreign Policy Advisor; Stefan Lehne, 
Cooper's Unit Chief for Balkan and CIS issues; Jukka Leskala, 
Section head for Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus; and Carl 
Hallergard, Ukraine desk.  DAS Tefft met separately with Kees 
van Rij, CIS Task Force head for Solana's Policy planning 
unit, and with Hugues Mingarelli, Commission director for CIS 
programs. 
 
Cooper on Russia 
------ 
3.  (C)  DAS Tefft provided a readout of his meetings the day 
before in Moscow.  Cooper said the EU had sensed Russia 
taking a tougher line on foreign policy issues for some time, 
and is concerned that the Beslan attack will reinforce 
Putin's authoritarian tendencies.  Cooper observed that every 
18 months or so, Russia has a major disaster (Cooper referred 
to the submarine incident), following which Russia goes 
through a period of turmoil, but in the end nothing changes. 
Cooper said the Beslan incident illustrates the complete 
failure of Putin's Chechnya policy.  What's worrisome, he 
added, is that since what he's done has failed, Putin will do 
more of it.  Discussing how to persuade Putin that Beslan 
demonstrates the need for Russia to resolve other frozen 
conflicts (e.g. South Ossetia), Cooper said perhaps the EU 
should offer to work with Russia to enhance border security. 
The turmoil inside Russia would continue for some time, he 
said, but it might be worthwhile to get some ideas in there 
now.  Maybe Russia could be persuaded of the benefits of 
dealing "with the easy bits around the edges" of Chechnya. 
 
4.  (C)  Lehne observed that Putin, in his speech after 
Beslan, seemed to blame the incident on the breakup of the 
Soviet Union.  Hartzell observed that Russia feels weak after 
Beslan, and won't want to make any deals on frozen conflicts 
now.  Russia prefers to negotiate from a position of 
strength.  Cooper agreed that Beslan would make it harder to 
engage Russia productively on Transnistria, noting that Putin 
may "win" Transnistria but, in the process, lose Moldova. 
Hartzell commented that Russia always seems to support 
yesterday's people; Cooper added that one never loses credit 
in the Russian MFA for failing to reach a political 
settlement. 
 
CIS Summit will criticize OSCE 
------------- 
5.  Van Rij informed Tefft that the CIS summit in Astana on 
September 16 will adopt a "very bad" statement critical of 
the OSCE.  The CIS states want the OSCE to focus on terrorism 
and security issues, rather than on democracy or human 
rights.  Van Rij, who has seen the draft text, believe an 
increasingly nationalistic Russia, less interested in common 
values with Europe, is behind the document.  He said Russia 
wants to use the CIS summit to bring Ukraine, Moldova and 
Georgia "back into the fold" and predicted a difficult period 
ahead in EU-Russian relations, should Russia continue to 
distance itself from basic OSCE values. 
 
Ukraine:  Elections and Transnistria 
------- 
6.  (C) Following DAS Tefft's assessment of the upcoming 
presidential elections in Ukraine, Cooper noted that free and 
fair elections "would change everything" for the EU in terms 
of its engagement with Kiev.  Cooper said he tells the Poles, 
who urge closer EU ties to Ukraine, "if the EU takes Turkey, 
it can't say no to Ukraine."  Van Rij said he was impressed 
with new First Deputy FM Motsyk, who recently took a line 
different from Kuchma -- even in talks with Smirnov -- and 
said that Urkaine agreed with the EU on some things regarding 
the recent school closings in Transnistria. Van Rij relayed 
recent rumors, which he found eminently plausible -- that 
Urkainian elites including Medvedchuk, Kuchma relatives and 
even Chernomyrdin had recently acquired equity holdings in 
Transnistrian steel.  Thus, van Rij saw little hope that 
Ukraine would take a tough stand on Smirnov in Transnistria. 
 
7.  (C)  At the Commission, Mingarelli said the EU's 
Neighborhood Policy goal for Ukraine is to integrate the 
country into the EU's internal market.  The EU will open up 
its markets following Ukraine's WTO accession, help Ukraine 
meet EU commercial standards, and wants to integrate Ukraine 
into Europe's transportation network.  The EU also plans to 
ease the movement of people by introducing a short-term visa 
for Ukraine, working to enhance border controls, and funding 
exchanges in the areas of research, education, energy and 
transport.  EU assistance in these areas will be conditioned 
on democratic reform, with initial focus on the Presidential 
elections, where EU observers will work under an OSCE 
mandate.  Mingarelli said Kuchma complained at last July's 
EU-Ukraine summit that the EU criticized Kiev for its 
elections, but said nothing about Russia's presidential 
elections. 
 
Moldova/Transnistria 
-------------- 
8.  (C)  DAS Tefft shared with Cooper and van Rij the US 
draft text of a Stability Pact statement on Moldova.  Cooper 
saw merit in the exercise as a way to show Voronin the US and 
EU took his initiative seriously, and to give the Moldovans 
an alternative to a possible Russian "Kozak II" plan.  Cooper 
also thought the EU could use the text as an opportunity to 
try and organize a pentagonal meeting as well, once the 
school crisis is resolved.  Van Rij agreed that the text 
could be useful to block a Kozak II initiative from Moscow. 
He expressed relief that Voronin would not be traveling to 
Astana for the CIS summit; the EU was concerned Moscow would 
use the event to press Voronin to accept a Kozak II plan. 
Van Rij said the EU was working on a medium-term strategy 
paper on Moldova that analyzes the potential roles of 
Moldova's neighbors in resolving Transnistria. 
 
9.  (C)  Cooper said Smirnov sees an opportunity -- due to 
the changed mood in Moscow -- to "pinch out a salient" and 
take steps toward Transnistrian independence.  This explained 
Smirnov's recent closing of Moldovan language schools and his 
actions with the railways.  The Russians are trying to smooth 
things over, Cooper said, but in ways that help Smirnov 
consolidate his gains.  Cooper said the EU, in addition to 
the visa ban on education officials in Transnistria, was also 
looking at freezing bank accounts. 
 
Belarus 
------- 
10.  (C)  Cooper said Lukashenko's referendum annoucement 
introduced a new element in the equation, and the US and EU 
should think carefully about timing and purpose of a joint 
demarche to Minsk.  Lehne commented that Lukashenko would not 
have announced the referendum without being confident he 
would win.  Both predicted Putin would not block Lukashenko; 
Cooper said the Russians refuse to put Belarus on the agenda 
with the EU -- at one point remarking, "soon Belarus will be 
an internal issue." 
 
11.  (C)  Van Rij said the EU would soon be ready to announce 
a travel ban on three former Belarusian ministers (Cooper 
noted Hungary had raised a point of concern that might delay 
announcement).  He said the EU was looking at further steps, 
too, should the situation warrant them, and had included in 
its recent statement on the referendum that it was 
considering "possible further steps."  DAS Tefft raised a 
question about the timing of announcing an expanded visa ban. 
 He suggested that we have limited leverage with Belarus and 
that perhaps we should consider holding off on the visa ban 
for use at the most optimum moment. 
 
12.  (C)  Mingarelli argued that Europe should engage Balarus 
more actively and at higher levels than at present.  In 
response to DAS Tefft's arguments against this line of 
reasoning, Mingarelli acknowledged that although he 
personally wants to step up the dialogue, this is not the 
prevailing view in Brussels. 
 
13.  (U) This cable was cleared by DAS Tefft. 
 
SCHNABEL