US embassy cable - 01ABUJA2568

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002568 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2011 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO BELIEVES NIGERIA WILL REMAIN 
CALM OVER AFGHANISTAN 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER, REASON 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
 
1.  (S) SUMMARY:  DURING AN OCTOBER 9 MEETING, PRESIDENT 
OBASANJO, JOINED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR ADOBE OBE, EXPRESSED 
CONFIDENCE THAT NIGERIA WOULD NOT EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT 
DEMONSTRATIONS AS A RESULT OF COALITION STRIKES IN 
AFGHANISTAN.  HOWEVER, HE ADMITTED THAT NIGERIA HAD ISLAMIC 
RADICALS WHO BEAR WATCHING.  IN THIS VEIN, OBASANJO STATED 
THAT HE WOULD HAVE TO REIN IN ZAMFARA STATE GOVERNOR SANI WHO 
CONTINUED TO BREW A VOLATILE MIX OF RELIGION AND POLITICS IN 
HIS ECONOMICALLY BACKWARD STATE. 
COMMENDING NIGERIAN SUPPORT FOR OUR MILITARY ACTION, 
AMBASSADOR JETER ADVISED OBASANJO THAT NIGERIA NEEDED TO 
TIGHTEN ITS MONEY LAUNDERING LAWS AS PART OF THE 
INTERNATIONAL EFFORT TO FINANCIALLY SUFFOCATE THIS 
TRANSNATIONAL THREAT.  WHILE ASKING FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE ON 
MONEY LAUNDERING, OBASANJO ALSO HINTED THAT NIGERIA COULD 
MODESTLY INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION, SHOULD PERSIAN GULF 
PRODUCERS EXPERIENCE DISRUPTIONS.   END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) INITIALLY FIDGETING AND COMPLAINING OF A COLD, 
PRESIDENT OBASANJO QUICKLY WARMED AS THE MEETING PROGRESSED. 
AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF HIS OFFICE TELEVISION BROADCASTING 
NEWS OF COALITION OPERATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN, OBASANJO 
PREDICTED THAT NIGERIA WOULD REMAIN CALM IN RESPONSE TO THE 
MILITARY OPERATIONS.  LIKE EVERYWHERE ELSE, THE COUNTRY HAD 
ITS FRINGE ELEMENTS WHO WOULD TRY TO STOKE THE GENERAL 
POPULATION;  HOWEVER, THIS TINY BUT BOISTEROUS MINORITY WOULD 
NOT BE ABLE TO STIR THE PEOPLE WITH THEIR SOUR RHETORIC, HE 
FORECASTED.  YET, HE ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR, NIGERIAN 
SECURITY AGENCIES WERE CLOSELY WATCHING THESE FIREBRANDS, 
LEST THEY RUN AMOK. 
 
 
3.  (S)  GIVING THE SUBJECT A BIT MORE THOUGHT AND NUANCE, 
OBASANJO CAVEATED THAT THE LONGER COALITION OPERATIONS 
LASTED, PARTICULARLY IF COUPLED WITH REPORTS OF CIVILIAN 
CASUALTIES OR AN EXPANDED THEATER OF OPERATION, THEN NIGERIA 
MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME ANTI-AMERICAN PROTESTS.  OBASANJO 
ADVISED THAT WE MUST RECOGNIZED THAT OIL PRODUCTION IN THE 
GULF COULD BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE BATTLE AGAINST TERRORISM 
ESCALATE SIGNIFICANTLY.  ALTHOUGH NIGERIA WAS NEAR MAXIMUM 
CAPACITY, HE SUGGESTED THAT THE COUNTRY COULD PROBABLY 
INCREASE PRODUCTION MODESTLY -- BY A QUARTER MILLION BARRELS 
DAILY -- SHOULD THE EMERGENCY ARISE. AMBASSADOR JETER THANKED 
OBASANJO FOR THE GESTURE, AND SAID THAT HE WOULD 
CONFIDENTIALLY PASS THE WORD ON TO WASHINGTON. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
4.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR THEN NOTED THAT NIGERIA'S MOST 
IMMEDIATE SECURITY CONCERN WAS ZAMFARA STATE, WHICH SEEMED 
TENSE FOR PURELY LOCAL REASONS.  AGREEING, THE PRESIDENT 
FORCEFULLY DECLARED, "I HAVE TO DEAL WITH ZAMFARA."  HE 
REMARKED THAT GOVERNOR SANI SEEMED TO HAVE TAKEN LEAVE OF HIS 
BETTER SENSES.  INSTEAD OF GOVERNING TO BETTER HIS CITIZENS' 
MATERIAL LOT, SANI ERRANTLY MIXED POLITICS AND RELIGION.  IF 
LEFT TO BREW, THIS UNFORTUNATE ALCHEMY COULD SPREAD TO OTHER 
PARTS OF NIGERIA.  THAT NEGATIVE DYNAMIC HAD TO BE STOPPED, 
OBASANJO DECLARED. 
 
 
5. (C)  HOWEVER, INSTEAD OF FURTHER ESTRANGING SANI, OBASANJO 
SAID HE WOULD TRY TO REHABILITATE THE ZAMFARA GOVERNOR.  AS A 
START, HE WAS CONVOKING FOURTEEN EMINENT PERSONS, INCLUDING 
TWO EMIRS, TO ESTABLISH A FACT-FINDING AND RECONCILIATION 
COMMITTEE.  THE COMMITTEE'S OSTENSIBLE PURPOSE WOULD BE TO 
INVESTIGATE THE CAUSES BEHIND LAST WEEK'S RUCTIONS BETWEEN 
APP AND PDP ACTIVISTS IN THE STATE.  THE REAL REASON, 
HOWEVER, WAS TO USE THESE RESPECTED PERSONALITIES TO INJECT 
SOME WISDOM INTO SANI'S CONDUCT THUS MITIGATING HIS 
INCREASINGLY RADICAL RELIGIOUS POPULISM. 
 
 
6. (C)  A PRINCIPAL CAUSE OF SANI'S POLITICAL DISTEMPER WAS 
THE GOVERNOR'S "MORTAL FEAR" OF NSA ALIYU MOHAMMED, A NATIVE 
OF ZAMFARA AND A CLEAR POLITICAL RIVAL.  OBASANJO RECALLED A 
RECENT BRIEF MEETING WHERE THE GOVERNOR SPUTTERED THE NSA'S 
NAME "AT LEAST 20 TIMES."  SPECIAL ADVISOR OBE INTERJECTED 
THAT MOHAMMED WAS NOT HELPING MATTERS BECAUSE HE TREATED SANI 
WITH PALPABLE CONTEMPT.  AT THE CORE OF SANI'S WOES, OBASANJO 
CONFIDED, WAS MALFEASANCE.  TO BOLSTER HIS POPULARITY WITH 
LOCAL CLERICS, SANI HAD DEPLETED THE STATE TREASURY BY GIVING 
FUNDS TO THE ULAMAS.  NOW THAT THE COFFERS WERE BARE, HE HAD 
NO FUNDS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE STATE, OBASANJO CONTENDED. 
 
 
7.  (C)  AMBASSADOR COMMENTED THAT SANI, SEEMINGLY CLUTCHING 
AT STRAWS, HAD APPROACHED AN EMBASSY OFFICER, ASKING THE 
EMBASSY TO INTERCEDE WITH NSA MOHAMMED ON HIS BEHALF.   A 
BEMUSED OBASANJO QUIPPED THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A "CONSTRUCTIVE 
ENGAGEMENT" WITH SANI.  BECOMING MORE SERIOUS, HE ASKED THAT 
WE MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH SANI IN HOPES THAT COMMUNICATION 
WITH THE EMBASSY WOULD HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT. 
 
 
8.  (C)  TURNING FROM ZAMFARA, OBASANJO STATED THAT HE MET 
THE KANO, KADUNA AND KATSINA STATE GOVERNORS OCTOBER 9 TO 
ASSESS THE SECURITY SITUATIONS IN THESE THREE STATES.  KANO, 
WITH ITS TEEMING POPULATION AND LARGE POCKETS OF UNEMPLOYED, 
IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC.  PEOPLE IN KANO WANT TO SHOW THEY ARE 
MORE DEVOUT MUSLIMS THAN THEIR BRETHRENS IN SOKOTO, THE 
PRESIDENT COMMENTED.  FORTUNATELY, THE KANO GOVERNOR WAS GOOD 
AND THE EMIR OF KANO WAS THE MOST EFFECTIVE TRADITIONAL 
LEADER IN THE NORTH.  THE EMIR WAS A STRONG BULWARK AGAINST 
FANATICISM, OBASANJO MAINTAINED.  AMBASSADOR BROUGHT TO HIS 
ATTENTION A PARTICULARLY INFLAMMATORY STATEMENT REPORTEDLY 
MADE BY THE KANO STATE BRANCH OF THE ULAMA COUNCIL.  OBASANJO 
IMMEDIATELY GOT ON THE PHONE TO CALL THE EMIR, BUT 
UNFORTUNATELY HE WAS NOT THERE. 
 
 
----------------- 
MONEY LAUNDERING 
----------------- 
 
 
9. (C)  AFTER COMMENDING NIGERIA'S DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT FOR THE 
ANTI-TERRORISM COALITION, AMBASSADOR JETER STATED THAT 
TERRORISM'S ABILITY TO FINANCE ITSELF HAD TO BE STOPPED.  WE 
HAVE TO SHUT THE DOOR ON MONEY LAUNDERING IN THIS REGARD. 
UNFORTUNATELY, NIGERIA LACKED ADEQUATE LEGISLATION AND AN 
APPROPRIATE BUREAUCRATIC FRAMEWORK TO TACKLE THIS ISSUE, 
JETER REMARKED.  OBASANJO REPLIED THAT THE MINISTRY OF 
JUSTICE WAS DRAFTING LEGISLATION CREATING A FINANCIAL CRIMES 
COMMISSION THAT WOULD ADDRESS THE MONEY LAUNDERING PROBLEM. 
THE PRESIDENT REQUESTED USG ASSISTANCE IN DRAFTING 
LEGISLATION AND ESTABLISHING A CORRECT INSTITUTIONAL 
FRAMEWORK.  THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT WE WOULD SEEK TO HELP 
WHERE POSSIBLE. 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
MPRI - LET'S TRY IT ONE MORE TIME 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
11. (C)  JETER STATED THAT THE MPRI CONTRACT TO HELP REFORM 
THE NIGERIAN MILITARY HAD REACHED A CRITICAL JUNCTURE.  BOTH 
SIDES NEEDED TO DECIDE WHETHER THE PROGRAM SHOULD CONTINUE. 
FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THE NIGERIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP 
DID NOT APPEAR FULLY COMMITTED TO THE PROGRAM.  WITHOUT THEIR 
SUPPORT, MPRI COULD DO LITTLE,  HE STRESSED.  CONSEQUENTLY, 
RETIRED GENERALS VUONO AND SAINT, THE SENIOR MPRI EXECUTIVES, 
NEEDED "TO SELL" THEIR PROGRAM TO THE NEW MILITARY LEADERSHIP 
WHEN THE MPRI DUO VISIT NIGERIA LATER THIS WEEK.  IF THEY 
COULD CONVINCE THE SERVICE CHIEFS ABOUT THE PROGRAM'S 
UTILITY, THEN IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT TO END THE PROGRAM. 
OBASANJO OBSERVED THAT THE SERVICE CHIEFS HAD GRUMBLED TO HIM 
THAT THEY HAD NOT SEEN ANY TANGIBLE BENEFITS FROM MPRI THUS 
FAR.  JETER REMINDED THE PRESIDENT THAT MPRI'S MANDATE WAS 
INSTITUTIONAL REFORM;  THUS, TANGIBLE ITEMS LIKE EQUIPMENT OR 
EVEN TRAINING WERE NEVER IN THE OFFING. 
 
 
12.  (C)  COMMENT. SUFFERING FROM A COLD, OBASANJO OTHERWISE 
SEEMED AS FIT AND LIVELY AS EVER.  HE WAS WELL BRIEFED ON 
SECURITY AND BELIEVED HE HELD MATTERS WELL IN HAND.  THE 
SUPPORT THAT OBASANJO IS GIVING OUR COUNTER-TERRORISM EFFORTS 
CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS ENCOURAGING.  HIS HINT AT INCREASED 
OIL PRODUCTION, ALBEIT ONLY MODEST, IN THE WAKE OF POSSIBLE 
PERSIAN GULF DISRUPTIONS IS AN IMPORTANT SYMBOLIC GESTURE. 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT WE CAN TO MAINTAIN AND FURTHER 
CULTIVATED  OBASANJO'S AND NIGERIA'S SUPPORT IN THE GLOBAL 
ANTI-TERRORISM EFFORT. 
 
 
Jeter