US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT7903

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 007903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, GM 
SUBJECT: CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS RETAIN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN 
SAARLAND ELECTIONS; FAR-RIGHT NPD MAKES SURPRISING GAINS 
 
REF: A. BERLIN 2736 
 
     B. 2003 FRANKFURT 3946 
     C. 2003 FRANKFURT 5668 
     D. 2003 FRANKFURT 9706 
     E. FRANKFURT 4964 
     F. FRANKFURT 5178 
     G. FRANKFURT 5692 
     H. FRANKFURT 5927 
     I. FRANKFURT 7642 
     J. BERLIN 3066 
 
Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Geeta Pasi, reasons 1.4(b) and 
(d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (U) Led by popular Minister-President Peter Mueller, 
Saarland Christian Democrats (CDU) netted an impressive 47.5% 
of the vote in September 5 elections and defended their 
absolute majority in the state assembly.  Damaged by public 
disenchantment with Hartz IV reforms (Ref A), Social 
Democrats (SPD) polled 30.8%, a 13.6% drop from 1999 and the 
party's second-worst result in the postwar era.  Greens and 
Free Democrats (FDP) re-entered Parliament (with 5.6% and 
5.2% respectively) after failing to cross the five-percent 
threshold in 1999.  The far-right National Democrats (NPD) 
capitalized on anti-reform sentiment to capture 4% of the 
vote, a four-fold increase from 1999.  Voter turnout was 
55.5%, the lowest in any western German state since the end 
of World War II.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Victorious CDU Cites Botched National Reforms 
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2.  (C) The Saarland CDU coasted to victory on the coattails 
of popular Minister-President Peter Mueller, retaining its 
absolute majority in the state parliament with 47.5% of the 
vote (up 2%).  Meanwhile, Saarland Social Democrats suffered 
losses across the board, winning in only three of the state's 
52 districts.  A lone bright spot for the SPD was the strong 
showing of Saarbruecken mayoral candidate Charlotte Britz, 
expected to beat Josef Heckmann (CDU) in the upcoming runoff. 
 Voter turnout was 55.5%, the lowest in postwar German 
history.  Sixty-thousand SPD voters from 1999 (out of 800,000 
eligible voters) stayed home during this election while 
30,000 cast votes for other parties.  In a meeting with the 
Ambassador two days after his victory, Minister-President 
Mueller attributed the strong CDU showing to the SPD's 
failure to properly explain and implement Agenda 2010 reforms. 
 
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...While Social Democrats Finger Left-Wing Lafontaine 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
3.  (U) SPD leader Heiko Maas blamed the party's poor 
performance on former Minister-President and outspoken 
left-wing activist Oskar Lafontaine.  Maas characterized 
Lafontaine as a divisive force whose high-profile campaign 
against Agenda 2010 had compromised the state party's 
campaign for moderate reform.  National SPD chairman Franz 
Muntefering accused Lafontaine of scuttling the campaign.  In 
an interview with the daily tabloid Bild Zeitung (which has 
the largest circulation in Germany), Lafontaine rejected the 
accusations and blamed the SPD loss on the failed Agenda 
2010, saying that Social Democrats would continue to lose 
elections as long as Chancellor Schroeder maintains the 
present course of reform. 
 
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Far-Right National Democrats Make Disturbing Gains 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
4.  (SBU) The far-right and anti-immigrant National 
Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) received 4% of the vote, a 
four-fold increase from 1999 and their best showing since 
1962.  Observers express particular concern that the party 
polled 11% among young voters (more than the mainstream FDP, 
for instance).  Saarland NPD standard-bearer Peter Marx 
brandished the result as a sign that the NPD will "leave the 
SPD behind" in upcoming Saxony elections.  Political 
observers attributed the far-right's surge to anti-reform 
sentiment (many of the votes came from former SPD 
strongholds) and to a new level of cooperation among 
right-wing parties.  Following the June 2004 agreement 
between the NPD and DVU (German People's Union) to coordinate 
election lists in Brandenburg and Saxony, the far-right 
Republicans (Republikaner, who polled 1.4% in 1999) agreed to 
withdraw from Saarland elections to clear the way for the NPD 
and avoid splitting the right-wing vote. 
 
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Mainstream Small Parties Also Make Big Moves 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Both the FDP and the Greens posted clear gains in 
the recent election.  Green party officials hailed their 5.6% 
showing as a significant achievement given Saarland's largely 
rural and conservative electorate.  Charismatic FDP 
standard-bearer Christoph Hartmann noted that the FDP is now 
on an equal footing with the Greens in Saarland and credited 
the public's desire for a "centrist opposition party" 
(according to polls, most voters believed the FDP would not 
end up in coalition with the CDU).  The Party for Democratic 
Socialism (PDS) polled a disappointing 2.3% despite months of 
intensive campaigning, underscoring that party's weakness 
outside its power base in eastern Germany. 
 
COMMENT 
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6.  (SBU) Mueller's strong performance further cements his 
status as a rising star among conservatives and positions him 
as a potential player in any CDU national government 
following federal elections in 2006.  The Saarland SPD 
stumbled in its campaign to mobilize its base through 
Lafontaine's high profile: left-wing voters dismissed Maas's 
moderate manifesto, while centrists bristled at Lafontaine's 
media crusade against Agenda 2010.  Growing support for the 
NPD reform critique could be a harbinger of greater far-right 
gains in upcoming east German state elections. 
BODDE