US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB1601

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 001601 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: MESIC RE-ELECTION ALL BUT CERTAIN, HDZ IN 
DAMAGE-CONTROL MODE 
 
REF: ZAGREB 01571 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: As the most popular Croatian 
politician by a double-digit margin with no realistic 
opponent, President Stjepan Mesic is almost assured of 
coasting to re-election at year's end.  Mesic has opposed key 
U.S. initiatives (troops to Iraq and Article 98), and is not 
expected to change in a second term, but he has otherwise 
been a positive force for Euro-Atlantic integration.  His 
likely re-election is a welcome sign of solid public support 
for centrist politics in Croatia. 
2.  (C)  The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which 
has yet to name a presidential candidate, seems to have given 
up hopes of unseating Mesic and is focusing instead on 
minimizing the damage the presidential campaign could have on 
the HDZ's showing in local elections expected in May 2005 
(reftel).  Having reached the end of any honeymoon it might 
have enjoyed after coming to power in November 2003, the HDZ 
faces simmering public dissatisfaction with government and is 
late to select a candidate.  Seeing no benefit in a lopsided 
loss to Mesic, some HDZ leaders ask whether the party should 
back any nominee at all.  Public support for potential 
candidates from within government is lukewarm at best, 
recently prompting the party to commission a poll of 2,000 
HDZ voters regarding who should be their presidential 
candidate.  Speculation about names from academia and 
athletics indicate the HDZ likely sees any candidate it puts 
up against Mesic as a sacrificial lamb; the eventual 
candidate is unlikely to be closely or historically 
associated with the party. Science, Education and Sport 
Minister Dragan Primorac, one of the more popular government 
figures and not an HDZ member, could be a compromise choice. 
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
FIVE MORE YEARS: PRESIDENT MESIC ON ROAD TO RE-ELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) With support pledged or expected from essentially all 
of Croatia,s opposition parties, including the Social 
Democratic Party (SDP), the Croatian People's Party (HNS), 
and the Liberal, Peasants' and Istrian Parties (LS, HSS, and 
IDS), local analysts agree that barring a dramatic change in 
circumstances, the contest to be called between December 18 
and January 18 is Mesic's election to lose.  His only 
declared opponent to date is Slaven Letica of the right 
fringe Croatian Party of Rights (HSP), which consistently 
polls in the single digits.  Current polls suggest Mesic may 
achieve the required simple majority in the first round of 
the election, eliminating the need for a second round two 
weeks later. 
 
4.  (U)  Constitutional changes during Mesic's term reduced 
presidential powers significantly from the era of Franjo 
Tudjman, reshaping the office into a traditional Head of 
State.  Mesic, however, retains important foreign policy 
influence through ambassadorial and intelligence service 
appointments as well as in his role as Commander-in-Chief of 
the Croatian Armed Forces. 
 
HDZ TURNS TO THE MAN ON THE STREET 
---------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  HDZ leaders seem perplexed by the presidential race. 
 Fiscal realities have de-railed several of the party's key 
campaign promises, including pension reform and tax relief, 
and a few controversial government decisions (notably the 
razing of houses constructed without permits and a traffic 
law setting a blood alcohol limit of zero) have party 
strategists nervous about public support.  A stunning 
municipal by-election loss to the SDP in Pozega in central 
Slavonia this week despite high-level campaign support from 
Zagreb has only added to HDZ nail biting. 
 
6.  (U)  Rumors have circulated for weeks about HDZ 
candidates ranging from Deputy PM Andrija Hebrang and Speaker 
of Parliament Vladimir Seks to MFA Miomir Zuzul, Minister of 
Science, Education and Sport Dragan Primorac, and PM Ivo 
Sanader himself, but the prospect of being selected as the 
HDZ presidential nominee seems increasingly like a bad card 
to draw.  Early favorite Jadranka Kosor, Deputy PM and 
Minister of Family, Veterans Affairs and Intergenerational 
Solidarity, went from media darling in early summer to being 
heckled from the stage at a public celebration for Olympic 
medallists in late August.  Perhaps prophetically, one of the 
 
 
guests of honor at that event was Lino Cervar, first-time MP 
and coach of Croatia's gold medal handball team ) the most 
recent name to surface in HDZ's search for an appealing 
candidate. 
 
7.  With the press speculating that Croatia,s largest party 
has no match for Mesic, members are likely to insist in the 
HDZ's upcoming poll that any candidate is better than none. 
HDZ leaders, to distance themselves from the seemingly 
inevitable loss, are likely to choose a candidate whose HDZ 
ties are not deep.  Science minister Primorac could fill the 
bill: although almost certain to lose against Mesic, he would 
run a credible race (polls show he is one of the more popular 
members of the government) and because he lacks long-term 
ties to HDZ, would cost the party little. 
FRANK 
 
 
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