US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS3840

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003840 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, IR, BK, SU, EAID, BU, CY, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF SEPTEMBER 13 GAERC 
 
REF: A. STATE 193154 
     B. BRUSSELS 3822 
     C. USEU TODAY 09/08/2004 
 
Classified By: Kyle Scott, PolMinCouns, Reasons 1.4 (B/D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) We have discussed reftel A points on the EU FMs' 
General Affairs and 
External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting on Sept. 13 with a 
variety of EU 
officials.  EU Conclusions on Sudan should dovetail with the 
main elements of 
our draft UNSC Resolution.  On Iran, we understand the EU 
will issue a 
statement (although perhaps not formal Conclusions) calling 
on Iran to comply 
with its IAEA obligations.  For Iraq, EU officials expect 
that EU Member State 
contributions will cover a substantial part, if not all, of 
the funds needed 
for the UN force, and are talking to the UN about additional 
support for 
elections.  Iraqi PM Allawi will be invited to the EU's 
November 5 Summit.  The 
GAERC will also formally approve, without discussion, the 
Concept of Operations 
(CONOPS) for the upcoming EU force in Bosnia.  Other issues 
that should be 
covered at the GAERC are Burma, Belarus, the Great Lakes and 
(possibly) Serbia. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
Sudan/Darfur 
------------ 
 
2. (C) Council officials shared with us the draft conclusions 
on Sudan being 
prepared for the September 13 GAERC.  Although minor 
adjustments may still be 
made, we were told the main elements are already agreed. 
They dovetail with 
the main elements of our draft UNSC resolution, including: 
-- a call for a moratorium on all military air operations; 
-- a statement of dissatisfaction with Sudanese 
implementation of its 
commitments to disarm militia groups; 
-- concerns about "continuing reports about massive human 
rights violations, 
including systematic rape of women; 
-- support for creation of an international commission of 
inquiry; 
-- willingness to further support an expansion of the AU 
observer mission; and 
-- a warning of possible sanctions against the GoS if no 
tangible progress is 
made. 
The EU will also dispatch a fact-finding mission to see where 
additional EU support 
may be needed. 
 
EU will issue statement on Iran 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) While Dutch PermRep de Bruijn has told a background 
press briefing that 
Iran will be discussed in restricted session at lunch, and 
lead to no formal 
Conclusions, according to Council Secretariat officials 
Sophie Kisling and 
Andreas Strub, who work respectively on Iran and 
Non-Proliferation issues, EU 
ministers will issue a statement on Iran on the margins of 
the GAERC.  The 
statement, which Strub had just drafted, will call on Iran to 
comply with IAEA 
guidelines and its international obligations, consistent with 
the EU's 
long-standing policy on Iran's nuclear program.  Ministers 
will seek to agree 
on a common press line on Iran, which will express support 
for the EU-3 
efforts, and which will coincide with the start of the IAEA 
Board meeting. 
Strub said he understood that the EU-3 continue to work on a 
common text for a 
proposed IAEA Board resolution on Iran, and will brief 
ministers at the GAERC. 
 
4. (C)  On the issue of referring Iran to the UNSC, Strub 
said the recent IAEA 
DG's report "could have been worse" for Iran.  It shows, he 
said, some Iranian 
responsiveness to the IAEA.  For example, the issue of 
contamination, he said, 
may never be clarified without Iran's suppliers coming clean 
on what they 
provided Iran -- and moving the issue to the Security 
Council, where Russia is 
a member -- won't necessarily help. In Strub's view, moving 
the issue to the 
Security Council will require carefully defining what Iran 
must do to comply 
with the IAEA:  exactly which dual-use activities will the 
UNSC insist Iran 
halt, which will be permitted, and will these standards apply 
to other 
countries (e.g. Israel)?  How the UNSC frames these issues 
will influence 
Iran's response, Strub said, and this should be carefully 
considered before 
moving to the UNSC. 
 
Iraq:  Funding UN Security Force 
-------------------------------- 
 
5. (C)  The GAERC Conclusions on Iraq have already been 
agreed at PermRep level 
and will endorse the EU's plan to meet with the Iraqi Interim 
Government in New 
York during UNGA week, as well as an invitation to PM Allawi 
to attend the 
November 5 EU Summit in Brussels.  A discussion of the 
Italian and French 
hostages in Iraq is also expected.  Kisling, who also covers 
Iraq at the 
Council, said that the legal basis for funding Iraq does not 
allow funding for 
military operations, although the Commission, Council and 
member states are 
looking carefully at this issue.  She said a legal brief is 
being prepared, but 
she has not seen it.  At present, the best option is for 
funding to come from 
member states, as Dutch FM Bot has asked them to do.  She 
said the Dutch have a 
contribution in mind, and the Germans are willing to use some 
of their pledge 
for election support to fund the UN protection force.  Other 
member states are 
working in capitals to see what they can pledge, and this 
will be discussed at 
the GAERC.  Kisling commented that the sum in question -- $26 
million -- was 
not huge; she did not know if member states would make up the 
full amount but 
thought it likely they would cover a substantial part of this 
sum. 
 
Iraq:  UN Election Appeal 
------------------------- 
 
6. (C)  Kisling said the Commission has pledged 15 million 
euros, and is 
talking to the UN and the Iraqi Election Commission.  The EU 
is not likely to 
fund the entire shortfall, she said, but the Commission was 
talking to the UN 
about reallocating some of its 2004 80 million euro 
contribution to the UN 
Trust Fund (under the International Reconstruction Fund for 
Iraq) for election 
support. 
 
Iraq:  Election Observation -- maybe a lite version 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
7. (C)  Kisling said that Iraq is on the EU's list for 
possible observation, 
but all is contingent on the security situation. 
Commissioner Patten is dead 
set against sending EU personnel to Iraq, so she did not 
foresee an election 
observation mission under the current Commission (whose 
tenure ends November 
1).  She thought perhaps the EU could send election experts 
and, at the most, 
possibly offer the kind of monitoring that it has undertaken 
in Afghanistan, 
but this was her personal opinion.  A parliament contact told 
us security 
concerns would result in few MEP volunteers for an 
observation mission. 
Operation Althea: Bosnia Handover 
--------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The CONOPS has been finalized by the PSC and should be 
approved at the 
September 13 GAERC as an "A point" (adopted without any 
discussion).  We have 
been assured by planners within the EU Military Staff that 
things are moving 
forward as anticipated.  A force generation conference is 
scheduled for 
September 15, and an OPLAN should be completed shortly.  The 
EU Military 
Committee should sign off on the OPLAN by the end of 
September. While there 
remains some uncertainty about the date for the Transfer of 
Authority, the EU 
Military Staff (EUMS) is aware of US plans to depart MNB 
North on November 30, 
and they are keen to avoid any gaps in on-the-ground 
presence. A formal 
decision by the EU to launch the operation is expected in 
November. That 
decision will establish an official takeover date. 
 
Other Issues: Burma, Belarus, Great Lakes, and Serbia 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9. (C) PermRep de Bruijn said the Presidency "expects that 
(the Gymnich) 
conclusions will be confirmed" on EU consideration of tougher 
measures against 
Burma (Ref B), despite reports of French objections (French 
FM Barnier was 
unable to attend the Gymnich meeting) in particular to 
proposed restrictions on 
EU companies investing in named Burmese state-owned 
enterprises.  A Council 
staffer told us that bilateral discussions between Barnier 
and Dutch FM Bot 
would likely continue over the weekend, and that a last 
minute PermRep 
Committee (COREPER) meeting early in the morning on Sept. 13 
was still 
possible.  But the UK and others have signaled clearly they 
have no margin for 
flexibility to back down vis-a-vis Burma at this point. 
 
10. (C) Due in particular to the insistence at least one of 
the Baltic states, 
the GAERC will also consider how the EU should respond to 
Belarusian President 
Lukashenko's announcement of an impending referendum there. 
A Dutch Presidency 
source told us that the Political and Security Committee has 
prepared a forceful 
message to be issued as Council conclusions.  As reported REF 
C, the EU's Political 
and Security Committee has agreed the EU should impose travel 
restrictions on Belarus 
officials, although we are told the final list will likely be 
decided after the GAERC. 
 
11. (SBU)  The FMs' luncheon on Sept. 13 will also cover the 
situation in the 
Great Lakes region in Africa, in particular the government 
crisis in Kinshasa, 
but no decisions or Conclusions are anticipated.  EU member 
states are still 
seeking an agreed approach on MONUC renewal.  The key 
question is whether to 
extend the existing mission, or seek to reinforce it. 
Finally, the Hungarian 
government was pushing add the treatment of the Hungarian 
ethnic minority in 
the Serbian province of Vojvodina to the GAERC agenda. 
According to our 
source, there was no enthusiasm from other EU Member States 
for raising the 
issue to the ministerial level at this point, but Budapest 
"appeared intent" on 
forcing a discussion of the issue. 
 
12. (U) Minimize considered. 
 
SCHNABEL