US embassy cable - 04QUITO2459

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002459 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR AA/LAC, LAC/SA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC, Democracy, President 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL INSTABILITY RISING 
 
REF: QUITO 2446 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  After a hiatus of three months, and with 
local elections looming in October, the political temperature 
here is rising, fueling rumors of political instability. 
While we take these recurrent rumors with a grain of salt, 
opposition politicians blame President Gutierrez' political 
mis-steps for each subsequent cycle of scandal, and warn this 
could lead to impeachment, social unrest or worse.  In 
response to these rumors, we have stepped up our efforts in 
support of constitutional democracy and its institutions with 
opposition and government leaders, to help calm the political 
waters.  End Summary. 
 
Background on Impeachment Talk 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) The latest round of opposition maneuvering against 
the Gutierrez Government came in reaction to the President's 
recent meeting in Panama with disgraced former president 
Abdala Bucaram, who lives there in exile as a fugitive from 
Ecuadorian justice (RefTel).  In response, some elements of 
the opposition are now threatening impeachment proceedings 
against Gutierrez.  Meanwhile, reacting to Gutierrez' recent 
round of travel by Gutierrez to inaugurate public works 
projects in areas where his party has electoral hopes, Vice 
President of Congress Ramiro Rivera (of the small Democratic 
Party) in late August submitted a request to the Attorney 
General to investigate the diversion of public funds by the 
President, allegedly for electoral purposes.  Others are 
calling for the resignation of Social Welfare Minister 
Antonio Vargas for his alleged role in the alleged 
inappropriate use of public funds (to construct local sports 
facilities inaugurated by the President on his travels). 
 
Congress Contemplating Impeachment 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) President of Congress Guillermo Landazuri told the 
Ambassador on September 9 that discord in Congress about the 
Bucaram meeting threatens to divert Congress from its 
legislative agenda.  He blamed Gutierrez' political 
ineptitude for the decision to visit Panama and, while there, 
committing the breach of meeting with a fugitive from 
Ecuadorian justice (Bucaram is wanted on corruption charges 
here).  This political blunder by Gutierrez came on the heels 
of his campaign-like swing to inaugurate public works in 
areas where his party has electoral hopes, another breach of 
presidential etiquette.  Landazuri said his party, the 
Democratic Left (ID), is reluctant to support formal 
impeachment proceedings against Gutierrez at this time, for 
lack of votes.  Landazuri said he personally would prefer 
that Gutierrez be allowed to finish his term and let the 
voters judge his performance in national elections in 2006. 
That position is unpopular within the ID; as a result, 
Landazuri implied, he would face internal competition for his 
job when the ID nominates the new President of Congress in 
January 2005.  Ultimately, however, the President is his own 
worst political enemy, and each subsequent scandal builds on 
the others. 
 
4.  (C) The Ambassador noted that it is not the USG role to 
judge the performance of the Ecuadorian president--that is 
for Ecuadorian voters to decide.  Instead, she emphasized to 
Landazuri how important political stability and respect for 
the institutions of Constitutional democracy is to Ecuador's 
democratic and economic development.  The Ambassador also 
urged Landazuri to get Congress to address pressing national 
legislative issues involving trafficking in persons reforms, 
labor code reforms, civil aviation and money-laundering.  The 
Ambassador also raised the issue of GoE action against 
Occidential Petroleum (SepTel).  Landazuri agreed with the 
Ambassador that many issues merit Congressional action, but 
regretted they would probably have to wait until after the 
October 17 election.  Similarly, he said he was not 
interested in meeting with President Gutierrez to discuss the 
legislative agenda until after the elections, and then, only 
if requested by the President. 
 
5.  (C) Landazuri estimated there are currently 61 
Congressional votes, including the ID (17 deputies) and the 
PSC (25) and other small parties, but without the support of 
the PRE (15) or PRIAN (10), in favor of impeachment; just 
five short of the two-thirds majority needed to impeach.  The 
ID party leadership, headed by former president Rodrigo 
Borja, is reluctant to bring an impeachment resolution 
without sufficient votes to assure passage, according to 
Landazuri, for fear of giving Gutierrez a political victory 
before the upcoming elections.  Landazuri also said Congress 
was looking into the business interests of the President and 
his brother Gilmar (a controversial Congressional deputy who 
leads the PSP bench in Congress), to determine whether they 
are benefiting from any business with the state.  On the 
opening day of the fall session on Congress on September 7, 
no action was taken on impeachment but Congress voted to 
censure Gilmar Gutierrez' provocative public accusation that 
a "conspiracy" exists to terminate his brother's presidency. 
Landazuri also expressed concern that with indigenous 
disillusionment with this government at an historic low, he 
feared the potential for social mobilization and protest. 
6.  (C) Indigenous party (Pachacutik) leader Gilberto Talahua 
was mute about the possibility of national protests in a 
meeting with PolCouns on September 8.  Talahua said decisions 
on protests come from the indigenous social movement 
(CONAIE), only.  However, according to Talahua, Pachacutik is 
convinced there are ample grounds for impeachment proceedings 
against Gutierrez or Vargas. 
 
Risk of Self-Coup? 
------------------ 
 
7.  (C) Landazuri said there is growing concern among the 
opposition parties that President Gutierrez might attempt a 
"self-coup" to hang onto power in the face of mounting 
Congressional opposition.  However, Landazuri said he did not 
believe the Armed Forces would support such a coup.  The 
Ambassador told Landazuri that she has made the USG position 
rejecting all extra-constitutional maneuvers perfectly clear 
in public and private, including with the President. 
 
8.  (C) Separately, indigenous leader Talahua raised the same 
concern bout a possible "auto-coup" with PolCouns.  Any such 
unconstitutional attempt to retain power would provoke a 
strong (but unspecified) reaction from the indigenous 
movement, he said.  Talahua insisted that his party would not 
support any change of regime through extra-constitutional 
means, a position which PolCouns noted coincides with the USG 
position.  Talahua also noted that the constitution provides 
for dismissal and replacement of the President by the 
Congress. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C)  This is by no means the first time our political 
interlocutors have raised the spectre of replacing President 
Gutierrez prematurely, by constitutional or 
extra-constitutional means.  While hostile anti-Government 
debate in Congress may simply be a pre-electoral maneuver, we 
must redouble our efforts to encourage a more reasoned 
discourse and promote the virtues of political stability. 
While always alert to the very real prospect for 
anti-Government opposition to move to shorten Gutierrez' term 
of office through impeachment, we believe the prospects for 
an "auto-coup" are far lower. 
KENNEY