US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS3813

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003813 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2014 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, SU, UNSC, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: SUDAN: EU SUPPORTS KEY ELEMENTS OF UNSC RESOLUTION 
 
REF: SECSTATE 193217 
 
Classified By: POL M/C KYLE SCOTT.  REASON: 1.4(b)(d) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  EU agrees on all main elements of UNSC 
draft.  EU not ready to declare situation genocide, but agree 
it is "ethnic cleansing."  Africa experts believe Pronk Plan 
is fatally flawed, but believe it is important for 
international community to stand together.  They also worry 
that it might take the AU as long as four months or more to 
expand their current operation.  EU ready to provide support 
for a police unit, and asked for details on US plans to 
deploy observers.  Action request: para 7. End Summary. 
 
GAERC Draft Conclusions Track Closely with UNSC 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (C) Council officials shared with us the draft conclusions 
on Sudan being prepared for the EU FMs meeting September 
13-14.  Although minor adjustments may still be made, we were 
told the main elements are already agreed.  They dovetail 
with the main elements of our draft UNSC resolution, 
including: 
-- a call for a moratorium on all military air operations; 
-- a statement of dissatisfaction with Sudanese 
implementation of its commitments to disarm militia groups; 
-- concerns about "continuing reports about massive human 
rights violations, including systematic rape of women; 
-- support for creation of an international commission of 
inquiry; 
-- willingness to further support an expansion of the AU 
observer mission; and 
-- a warning of possible sanctions against the GoS if no 
tangible progress is made. 
 
No Genocide, Wary of Pronk Plan 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) EU Africa experts are not ready to declare that the 
situation amounts to genocide, believing the UN is the 
appropriate body to make that determination.  In any case, 
they are convinced that ethnic cleansing is underway.  The 
dividing line, as they see it, is linguistic: IDP camps are 
populated almost entirely by those who do not speak Arabic as 
their mother tongue. 
 
4. (C) The Council's main Sudan-watcher, Christian Manahl, 
told us he believes the Pronk plan is fatally flawed, because 
the safe areas were negotiated unilaterally with the GoS, 
without buy-in from the rebels.  That has allowed the GoS to 
argue that military operations were all aimed at expanding 
the safe zones, and helped stall the Abuja talks as rebel 
groups refuse to discuss safe zones they were never party to 
creating in the first place. 
 
5. (C) Manahl also worried that the AU lacked the capacity to 
field a strengthened mission any time in the near future.  He 
predicted that even if the UN's proposals are adopted, 
political haggling and logistical bottlenecks within the AU 
would prevent them from deploying a significantly larger 
mission until early next year at the earliest.  Manahl 
preferred that the AU take its time to prepare for a "proper" 
PKO rather than rush toward a disaster. 
 
EU Police Mission 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) EU remains ready to field a police support mission, 
but Manahl told us this idea is currently stalled.  Much 
would depend on the GoS response to the UN's proposals.  The 
GoS invited participation in a police monitoring mission, the 
EU is ready to support with 25-150 people, depending on 
needs. 
 
Where Are the American Observers? 
--------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Manahl noted that the Addis Ababa agreement had 
authorized a maximum of 18 foreign observers.  The EU 
understood the US intended to supply half, with the EU 
supplying the rest.  The EU has currently has fielded 10 
observers, but understands the US has only provided two or 
three thus far.  Manahl asked for additional information on 
US planning, noting that the EU would be ready to supply more 
observers to make up the 18-person limit if the US did not 
intend to supply more observers.  ACTION REQUEST: Please 
advise. 
 
SCHNABEL