US embassy cable - 01STATE176853

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176853 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11 
TAGS: PREL, AF, PK 
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE 
 
REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL), (B)ISLAMABAD 5601 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY 
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D). 
 
1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN 
DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON 
THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY 
THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES 
SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS 
MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE THESE 
EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION. 
 
2. (C) BACKGROUND: 
 
-- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A 
GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS 
NEIGHBORS, AND ENGAGED IN OVERLL REGIONAL COOPERATION AND 
ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY 
EMERGE FROM THE "SUPREME COUNCIL" UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR 
SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR 
ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND SECTARIAN GROUPS. 
 
AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WITH A 
SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE STABILITY FOR 
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY, INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND 
OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT THE GOVERNMENT AND 
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM THOSE THAT SEEK TO 
CONTINUE THE CONFLICT. 
 
-- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN 
COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE DOWN 
TERRORISTS OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL NORMS AND 
PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS, ISSUES CONCERNING 
WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN AND 
ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH COALITION PARTNERS, 
PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE 
IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY 
ARRANGMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE "SUPREME COUNCIL" 
AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. 
 
3. (C) TALKING POINTS: 
 
-- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO 
DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE ANTICIPATE 
MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT 
TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED. 
 
-- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT 
INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS 
FUTURE. 
 
-- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT 
THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE AND OTHER COUNTRIES MADE GENEROUS 
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE UNSYG'S EMERGENCY APPEAL, BUT THERE IS 
STILL MORE TO BE DONE. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY 
IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI 
AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND 
LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN 
DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING UN 
ROLE IN BRINGING PEACE AND STABILITY TO AFGHANISTAN. WE 
ENCOURAGE PAKISTANI CONTACTS WITH HIM AS WELL. 
 
-- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A ROLE TO PLAY IN SOLVING 
THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED DIALOGUE 
WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH 
AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALEBAN UNITY. 
 
-- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A 
HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR DISCUSSIONS 
WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER 
INDEPENDENTAFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND 
OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A SUPREME 
COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN COMBINING THE ROME 
GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS. 
 
-- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE 
ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES. 
 
-- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO 
DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT 
THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL 
PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT 
WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC,AND GENERALLY 
REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END 
ALL SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS 
OF INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR. 
 
-- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT 
COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE 
SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE ALONE 
COULD OR SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC 
COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY 
FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF 
AFGHAN SOCIETY. 
 
-- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE 
LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN. WE BELIEVE 
THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE INTERESTS INTO 
ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE 
AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN WANTS THE SHI'A 
PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN WANT REFUGEES TO 
RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,AND TAJIKISTAN WANT 
PEACEFUL BORDERS. 
 
-- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING 
COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE 
POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY 
IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS 
AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE. 
 
-- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS. 
 
-- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL 
FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON 
THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS. 
 
4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS: 
 
FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS: 
 
-- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS, 
HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN THAT NEED 
TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL TO THE 
EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE AFGHANISTAN. 
-- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS 
TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. 
 
FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI: 
 
-- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS KEY 
INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA, LIKE 
PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE ANTICIPATE 
A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF THIS 
TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS. 
 
FOR EMBASSY TOKYO: 
 
-- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE 
ECONOMICA AND POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN 
TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF RECENT 
MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA. 
 
-- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES 
WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS 
PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY 
JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM. 
 
-- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN 
ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A FUTURE 
AFGHANISTAN. 
 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
 
POWELL