US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2817

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA AT A 
CROSSROADS 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4 (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Venezuela's Coordinadora Democratica is hobbling after 
its defeat in the presidential recall referendum August 15. 
Some Chavez opponents blame the Coordinadora's leadership for 
either losing the referendum via an inept campaign or for not 
preventing the alleged fraud.  The dozens of opposition 
political parties and NGOs are split also over the fraud 
allegations and on how to proceed to the regional elections 
scheduled for October 31.  Another immediate concern is how 
to keep disillusioned anti-Chavez voters interested in 
electoral politics.  Further along, the Coordinadora faces 
the challenges of restructuring and maintaining unity among 
political parties and NGOs, a situation which will be greatly 
affected by how the regional elections play out.  End summary. 
 
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Coordinadora Turns On Itself 
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2. (C) Since the victory of President Hugo Chavez in the 
August 15 recall referendum, the opposition Coordinadora 
Democratica has suffered from lack of leadership and internal 
squabbling.  Union Party Secretary General Luis Manuel 
Esculpi September 1 described the Coordinadora as 
representative of the Venezuelan opposition, with some 
believing Chavez beat them legitimately and others believing 
he used massive fraud to steal the election.  Either way, 
said Esculpi, the effect is a political defeat for the 
opposition and, thus, the Coordinadora.  Noticeably absent 
has been Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, head of the 
Coordinadora, who is reportedly dedicating much of his time 
to his own re-election campaign.  The Coordinadora continues 
to operate, Esculpi said, but with few important meetings. 
The campaign committee, for example, has not met since just 
after the referendum. 
 
3. (C) Leonardo Carvajal, leader of the NGO Education 
Assembly, told poloff September 2 he had resigned from the 
political committee (though his organization remains a 
Coordinadora member) in protest of Mendoza's leadership. 
Carvajal said senior Coordinadora representatives in the run 
up to the election had ceased to consult with the political 
committee.  Both Carvajal and Esculpi asserted that Mendoza 
had become increasingly closed off before the referendum, 
putting his people in charge of key areas and not 
disseminating information.  Jose Luis Mejias, Secretary 
General of Primero Justicia, told poloff September 3 that 
Mendoza "collapsed" psychologically when he learned that 
Chavez had won.  Carvajal said Mendoza offered his 
resignation to the political committee on August 16, which 
the majority of the committee rejected.  Carvajal, believing 
Mendoza's continued leadership to be an error, withdrew from 
the political committee. 
 
4. (C) Carvajal, among others, also complained that the 
Coordinadora's negotiators at the National Electoral Council 
(CNE) accepted the terms of the CNE's first audit of voting 
machines that later proved to be fundamentally flawed. 
Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Felipe Mujica, 
one of the negotiators, contradicted Carvajal to poloff 
August 31, noting the opposition's only leverage in its 
dealings with the CNE was to withdraw from the referendum, 
which was not a politically viable option. 
 
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GOV Kicks 'Em When They're Down 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The GOV has also circled in on the wounded opposition. 
 President Chavez declared on August 22 he no longer 
recognizes the Coordinadora as the legitimate representatives 
of the opposition, adding that it is past time the 
Coordinadora "disappear from the face of the earth."  Vice 
President Jose Vicente Rangel reiterated this line on 
September 6, saying that the Coordinadora is dead and 
deserves a "good Christian burial."  Numerous pro-Chavez 
politicians have conditioned negotiations between Chavez 
 
 
opponents and the GOV on the unconditional acceptance of the 
referendum results.  Mujica told poloff the GoV's 
non-recognition policy is nothing more than a ploy to keep 
the opposition from negotiating acceptable terms for the 
October 31 regional elections. 
 
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Fraud and Elections Loom Large 
------------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Though shaken, the Coordinadora focused on making its 
case that the GOV rigged the referendum and pressing for 
acceptable conditions with the CNE for the regional 
elections.  A Coordinadora committee headed by constitutional 
lawyer Tulio Alvarez will formally contest the CNE's 
certification of the referendum results, using comprehensive 
documentation of allegations of irregularities, bias and 
fraud.  Esculpi said the Alvarez report would be useful for 
highlighting vulnerabilities of the electoral process that 
the CNE should resolve before the opposition agrees to 
participate.  Mejias said the report would be convincing, but 
he said he was not sure where it would lead the opposition 
politically.  Mejias complained there were too many "heads 
with no bodies" within the Coordinadora, making decisions 
difficult.  Both Carvajal and Mejias are wary of the 
opposition's chances in the elections, warning that 
abstention among anti-Chavez voters will be high due to 
suspicions about the CNE's handling of the electoral process. 
 
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Whither the Opposition? 
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7. (C) Mejias said opposition groups would have to wait until 
after the regional elections to determine the fate of the 
Coordinadora.  Fresh from elections, Mejias said, the 
political parties will have a better sense of their relative 
strengths and, therefore, of the possible makeup of a new 
opposition coordinating entity.  Esculpi said he had 
consulted with center-left parties on the possibility of 
forming a new political alliance for the 2006 presidential 
race. 
 
8. (C) Juan Fernandez, leader of the NGO Gente de Petroleo, 
told poloff September 3 he had been holding town hall 
meetings with his membership throughout Venezuela to discuss 
his organization's post-referendum strategy.  Fernandez, a 
member of the Coordinadora's campaign committee, said he had 
received harsh criticism from some members over the 
Coordinadora's handling of the referendum and its aftermath. 
Fernandez noted that opposition parties are not clearing the 
air with their supporters as he is doing, and predicted that 
it will cause parties to lose in the regional elections. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) The Coordinadora is effectively rudderless and in need 
of re-invention.  Rather than attempting to salvage what grew 
to be a defined organization that took diverse opponents of 
Chavez through 18 months of electoral hurdles, Coordinadora 
members are choosing to shoot their own wounded.  The 
upcoming regional elections serve to intensify each party's 
focus on its own fortunes.  The GOV has also done its best to 
ease the passing of the Coordinadora into the political 
afterlife.  But it may be too soon to write it off the 
Coordinadora.  The fraud report is an important step by the 
opposition to buck up supporters and, though more difficult, 
to prove to them and to others that Chavez stole the 
election.  The Coordinadora's future depends on its member 
groups, and on whether they can come back from their 
political defeat, and to the extent to which they can find 
common purpose.  A key test will be whether opposition 
parties can agree on unified candidacies in the regional 
elections so as to increase the opposition's ability to 
defeat Chavista opponents. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02817 - CONFIDENTIAL