US embassy cable - 01STATE176819

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176819 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11 
TAGS: PREL, AF, PK 
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY) 
 
REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL), (B)ISLAMABAD 5601 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY 
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D). 
 
(U) THIS IS A CORRECTED COPY OF CABLE PREVIOUSLY SENT WITH 
SAME SUBJECT. (MRN NOT AVAILABLE) 
 
1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN 
DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON 
THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY 
THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES 
SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS 
MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE 
THESE EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION. 
 
2. (C) BACKGROUND: 
 
-- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A 
GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS 
NEIGHBORS, ABLE TO GOVERN, AND ENGAGED IN OVERALL REGIONAL 
COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE 
GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY EMERGE FROM THE "SUPREME COUNCIL" 
UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH 
NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND 
SECTARIAN GROUPS. AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL 
ASSISTANCE WITH A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE 
STABILITY FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL RECOVERY, 
INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT 
THE GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM 
THOSE THAT SEEK TO CONTINUE THE CONFLICT. 
 
-- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN 
COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE 
DOWN TERRORISTS' OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL 
NORMS AND PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS AND ISSUES 
CONCERNING WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF 
HUMANITARIAN AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH 
COALITION PARTNERS, PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND 
REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND 
IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED 
BY THE "SUPREME COUNCIL" AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. 
 
3. (C) TALKING POINTS: 
 
-- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO 
DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE 
ANTICIPATE MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES 
OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED. 
 
-- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT 
INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS 
FUTURE. 
 
-- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT 
THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY 
IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI 
AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND 
LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN 
DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING HIS 
ROLE. WE ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO BE IN CONTACT WITH HIM AS 
WELL. 
 
 -- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A KEY ROLE TO PLAY IN 
SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED 
DIALOGUE WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH 
AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALIBAN UNITY. 
 
-- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A 
HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR 
DISCUSSIONS WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER 
INDEPENDENT AFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND 
OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A 
SUPREME COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN 
COMBINING THE ROME GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND 
OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS. 
 
-- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE 
ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES. 
 
-- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO 
DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT 
THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL 
PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT 
WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC, AND GENERALLY 
REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END ALL SUPPORT FOR 
TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS OF INTERNATIONAL 
BEHAVIOR. 
 
-- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT 
COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE 
SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE 
(COMPOSED LARGELY OF TAJIKS AND UZBEKS) ALONE COULD OR 
SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC 
COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY 
FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF 
AFGHAN SOCIETY. 
 
-- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE 
LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN. WE 
BELIEVE THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE 
 
INTERESTS INTO ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED 
WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN 
WANTS THE SHI'A PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN 
WANT REFUGEES TO RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN, 
AND TAJIKISTAN WANT PEACEFUL BORDERS. 
 
-- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING 
COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE 
POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY 
IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS 
AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE. 
 
-- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS. 
 
-- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL 
FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON 
THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS. 
 
4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS: 
 
FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS: 
 
-- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS, 
HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN 
THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS 
VITAL TO THE EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE 
AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS 
TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. 
 
FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI: 
 
-- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS 
KEY INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA, 
LIKE PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE 
AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE 
ANTICIPATE A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS 
OF THIS TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS. 
 
FOR EMBASSY TOKYO: 
 
-- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE 
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SOCIAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. 
 
-- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN 
TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF 
RECENT MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA. 
 
-- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES 
WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS 
PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY 
JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM. 
 
-- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN 
ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A 
FUTURE AFGHANISTAN. 
 
FOR EMBASSY PARIS: 
 
-- WE WERE DELIGHTED TO SEE THAT, IN YOUR EXCELLENT PLAN 
FOR ASSISTING AFGHANISTAN, YOU ARE CONCENTRATING ON THE 
SAME AREAS OUR OWN THINKING ENCOMPASSES. FRENCH 
LEADERSHIP ON THHIS ISSUE WILL ASSURE THAT THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ADDRESSES THESE URGENT TASKS 
EFFICIENTLY AND WELL. WE SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH ON 
THE WAY FORWARD. 
 
-- WE SHARE YOUR PARTICULAR CONCERNS REGARDING ERADICATION 
OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION. 
 
--WE BELIEVE FRANCE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE EU HAVE AN 
IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN PROVIDING A BETTER FUTURE FOR 
THE AFGHAN PEOPLE AND WELCOME THE EU'S EXPERTISE IN 
DEVISING A RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME. 
 
5. (U) DUSHANBE MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
 
POWELL