US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB1571

UNCLAS  ZAGREB 001571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: PUMPING UP -- OPPOSITION REVIVING COALITIONS FOR LOCAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
1.  SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Croatia's current opposition parties 
learned the hard way when they lost power in the 2003 
parliamentary elections - coalitions are the key to electoral 
victory against the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).  With 
that lesson in mind, opposition leaders see local elections 
(expected next spring) as a critical opportunity to rebuild the 
partnerships they abandoned in 2003, strengthen party 
infrastructure, and set the stage for the next round of 
parliamentary elections.  This revival of opposition coalitions 
indicates a marked evolution of attitudes among party power 
brokers - a step away from the personality politics of the recent 
past that too often favor party extremists.  Local elections will 
give Croatian politicians the opportunity to prove they can 
sustain these alliances and produce a more balanced and stable 
multi-party democracy. 
 
2.  The Social Democrats (SDP) and the Peasant Party (HSS) 
announced plans for close cooperation in local elections, 
including joint candidate lists.  In a similar vein, a trio 
purporting to make up the Croatian "civil center," the Croatian 
People' Party (HNS), the Liberal Party (LS) and Libra, signed a 
coalition agreement and left open the possibility of linking up 
with their former partners in the SDP and HSS.  The ruling HDZ has 
generally avoided talk about elections; however, some house- 
cleaning moves indicate that it, too, is preparing.   The Croatian 
Party of Rights (HSP) is positioning itself to appeal to voters 
too far to the right for the reformed HDZ, but remains open to 
local coalitions with the ruling party.  Despite earlier 
posturing, most parties seem to favor the existing party ballot 
system rather than the direct election of mayors and county 
executives.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
LEARNING FROM THEIR MISTAKES 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  Croatian opposition parties are aiming for a political 
comeback by reforming the partnerships that once brought them to 
power.  The SDP, the largest opposition party, and the HSS are in 
the process of negotiating a coalition for local elections 
ordinarily due in May 2005.  This alliance is critical, as the 
independent ambitions of HSS leader Zlatko Tomcic are widely seen 
as the main reason for the previous coalition government's 
collapse.  In addition, while the SDP dominates urban politics, 
the HSS power base is rural, creating a complementary ticket for 
local elections.  Senior officials in both the SDP and the HSS 
told the Embassy they would seek joint lists of candidates in all 
counties and major cities across the country.  They plan to sign 
an agreement in early September, and hope to make similar 
arrangements in smaller communities.  Party leaders have also said 
they would leave the door open for other parties, especially 
former partners in the HNS and the regional Istrian Democratic 
Assembly (IDS).  The HNS, LS and Libra signed a coalition 
agreement July 18 establishing what they called a "civil center" 
of Croatia, and welcome cooperation with other parties, namely the 
SDP, the HSS, and the Pensioners' Party (HSU). 
 
4.  In addition to these formal steps to rebuild the former 
coalition, political leaders from the SDP, HSS and HNS united to 
criticize government actions this summer, particularly those 
concerning road construction.  The opposition took full political 
advantage of the GOC's intention to expand a road construction 
contract without public tendering.  Using this "affair" to portray 
the HDZ-led government, and particularly some of its ministers, as 
a group pursuing private rather than national interests (the 
latter being an issue of particular sensitivity for the HDZ), the 
opposition eventually forced the government to open a full 
tendering process.  According to Post contacts, the leaders of 
these parties will continue to work together to counterbalance the 
HDZ's power when Parliament resumes its work later in September. 
 
TAKING OUT THE TRASH -- HDZ'S SUMMER CLEANING AND THE FAR RIGHT 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
5.  The ruling HDZ has not yet publicly addressed elections. 
However, some of the party's and the government's recent moves 
indicate that they are positioning themselves for local elections. 
In July, the HDZ expelled from membership Ante Loncar, mayor of 
the economically troubled town of Imotski, for spending city funds 
on a particularly expensive official vehicle. Similarly, the 
government pressed corruption charges in August against Stipe 
Gabric Jambo, another former mayor and ex-HDZ member who has 
greatly enriched himself over the past decade, becoming a symbol 
of cronyism and dubious privatization. In its countrywide effort 
to stop illegal building, in July the government ordered the 
destruction of a house in an elite part of Zagreb belonging to a 
former prominent HDZ-er and army general Ljubo Cesic Rojs, who 
epitomizes the regime from the nineties.  While steps like these 
are welcome, opposition officials claim they are more a result of 
infighting than a genuine wish to clean party ranks and combat 
corruption, noting that these house-cleaning targets enjoyed full 
support and protection while loyal to the party and were 
conveniently hit only after they left the HDZ or when their 
interests clashed with those of other, more powerful old-school 
party members. 
 
6. The far-right Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) recently formally 
abandoned its past practice of glorifying Croatia's WWII fascist 
regime.  As a consequence, it won eight seats in the November 2003 
elections, doubling its strength in the national Parliament.  As 
the HDZ has moved toward the center, the HSP has been quick to 
capture the right side of the political spectrum. It launched a 
campaign this summer in support of generals indicted for or 
convicted of war crimes, including posters across Dalmatia 
picturing Mirko Norac, a Croatian general indicted by the ICTY and 
already found guilty of war crimes by a domestic court, declaring: 
"Guilty -- of defending his homeland."  Similarly, the party has 
become a more vocal skeptic regarding NATO and EU membership and 
was also the only important party that had no problem with the 
recent erection of monuments in memory of Ustasha leaders.  Recent 
polls show that HSP support may have peaked, settling at 7 to 8 
percent, a number predicted by local analysts, including President 
Mesic's domestic policy advisor, Igor Dekanic.  COMMENT: Local 
elections could reveal the HSP's real strength, as they are the 
only significant party with the possibility of going into 
coalition with the HDZ.  While international considerations kept 
the HDZ from forming a national alliance with the HSP following 
the last parliamentary elections, it is less likely to avoid 
cooperation with the far right at the local level.  END COMMENT. 
 
DEBATES OVER ELECTION TIMING AND REPLACING PARTY BALLOTS 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
7.  HDZ strategists have also considered how the timing of the 
local elections due in 2005 might help their cause.  The law 
requires local elections on the third Sunday of May every four 
years.  However, two high-ranking old-school HDZ-ers have made 
conflicting statements on changing the election schedule. The HDZ 
MP and party chief in Eastern Slavonia, Branimir Glavas, suggested 
in mid-July that local elections could be held together with those 
for the President around the New Year.  Although Glavas argued 
that combining the two elections would reduce organizational 
costs, opposition leaders and independent analysts suspect Glavas 
believes the HDZ would do better at combined elections than at a 
local election following their candidate's expected defeat in the 
presidential race (septel).  Later in July, another prominent 
party member, Deputy Speaker Luka Bebic, said that he expected 
local elections in April.  Either of the suggested dates would 
require a legislative change.  SDP SG Igor Dragovan told us in 
late August that the HDZ would have trouble getting its coalition 
partners, especially the Pensioner Party and the Independent 
Democratic Serbian Party (SDSS), to vote for changing the law, due 
to growing SDSS discontent with the slow pace the government is 
addressing their interests. Dragovan believes the HDZ chose to 
make conflicting statements about the election date to create 
confusion in the opposition. 
 
8.  There has also been intermittent debate about direct election 
of mayors and county executives (zupans). Under current law, local 
executive authorities are selected by the city councils/county 
assemblies elected on party/coalition ballots at the local 
elections.  Reformers have argued that local officials should be 
responsible directly to the citizens rather than the parties they 
come from.  All major parties have supported this view in public 
statements.  The HNS, however, is now the only major party that 
still publicly promotes a change.  While claiming that they still 
support direct election of mayors and zupans, all other relevant 
parties (HDZ, SDP, HSS) in fact favor the status quo. They 
privately offer a number of reasons: there isn't enough time to 
change the law; that, once elected, mayors would be unimpeachable; 
that local governments would become unstable; or even that Croatia 
is not ready for such a radical change.  Most major parties 
governing Croatian cities and counties (HDZ, SDP, HSS) are not 
ready to give up party influence on the electoral process, 
especially in places with strong individuals.  With virtually no 
debate on the issue in the run-up to local elections, it's likely 
the current system will remain in place. 
 
FRANK 
 
 
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