US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1196

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001196 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
NSC FOR COURVILLE 
PASS USTR FOR P.COLEMAN 
PASS MCC FOR T.BRIGGS AND S.GAULL 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MZ, Elections 04, Guebuza, FRELIMO 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GUEBUZA ON BILATERAL 
RELATIONS, CAMPAIGN, PLANS FOR GOVERNING 
 
REF: MAPUTO 1154 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR HELEN LA LIME, REASON 1.5(D) 
 
1.(C) Summary: Ruling party presidential candidate Guebuza 
told Ambassador La Lime he hoped to capitalize on the 
surprisingly widespread sympathy for Mozambique he found in 
his July trip to the U.S. He described the recent violent 
RENAMO-FRELIMO skirmishes in Sofala province (reftel) as 
troubling but limited confrontations. He appeared confident 
that he would win the December 1-2 elections. Guebuza cited 
as priorities for his government decentralization, training, 
fighting AIDS, and most of all getting results. He also 
acknowledged deficiencies in the police and courts. End 
Summary. 
 
2.(U) Ambassador La Lime and DCM met on September 6 with 
ruling party presidential candidate Armando Guebuza. Since 
returning from a July visit to the United States to attend 
the Democratic convention and meet with Administration 
officials, Guebuza has been making high-profile appearances 
throughout the country, visiting all provinces except Maputo. 
Although formal campaigning may not begin until mid-October, 
Guebuza has been much more visible to date than his only 
significant opponent, RENAMO leader and two-time unsuccessful 
candidate Afonso Dhlakama, who recently visited China and is 
currently in the United States. 
 
Bilateral Relations 
------------------- 
3.(C) Ambassador La Lime reviewed key bilateral themes and 
our interest in strengthening the relationship. She noted 
the visit the previous week of a Millennium Challenge 
Corporation team to consult with Mozambicans preparing the 
country,s proposal for MCC assistance. She explained that 
the House,s cut in the Administration,s FY05 budget 
proposal meant that Mozambique would need to set priorities 
among the several projects it had initially identified. On 
HIV/AIDS issues, she explained that, despite some recent 
press reports, the USG cooperates regularly with GRM health 
officials and seeks their advice in shaping our comprehensive 
program. She also noted our desire to strengthen our trade 
and investment relationship and said that a first step would 
be Mozambican enactment of the 1999 bilateral investment 
agreement, once we confirm whether executive decree is 
acceptable or whether legislative approval is necessary. 
 
4.(C) Guebuza said that during his July trip to the U.S. he 
had been pleasantly taken aback by the amount of sympathy he 
found for Mozambique. He noted that in earlier times he had 
found widely differing views within the U.S., but that now 
the support seemed widespread, and he was very interested in 
capitalizing on it. On development issues, he acknowledged 
the Mozambican MCC team,s focus on the private sector and 
said the country needed to increase Mozambicans, management 
capacity. 
 
Presidential Campaign 
--------------------- 
5.(C) Guebuza said he would formally present his candidacy 
for the December 1-2 elections later that day. He described 
the recent violent RENAMO-FRELIMO skirmishes in Sofala 
province (reftel) as troubling but limited confrontations 
that were not the crisis that the press was portraying. The 
Ambassador noted our concern over the Inhaminga violence. 
Guebuza acknowledged the need to incorporate RENAMO candidate 
Dhlakama,s armed bodyguards into the police; he said this 
had been a problem for ten years that needed to be resolved, 
but he noted that both sides were now making statements of 
intent to resolve it. He said that the creation of jobs 
would prevent people from thinking of war, and he emphasized 
the positive role that could be played by the Sena railway 
line that the World Bank had just agreed to fund. 
 
6.(C) In response to a question about varying analyses of 
RENAMO,s strength, Guebuza disagreed with the idea that 
RENAMO,s support was stronger than FRELIMO,s in the rural 
areas that make up most of the country and that were not 
included in last year,s municipal elections. He noted that 
most of the municipalities that FRELIMO had won last year 
were in fact more rural than urban, and he appeared confident 
that FRELIMO had majority support in the country as a whole. 
He acknowledged the importance of the electoral process and 
said FRELIMO was ready to accept a fair result. He expected 
a peaceful election without great difficulties and welcomed 
the likely visit of former President Carter to oversee the 
Carter Center,s monitoring effort. Though he noted that it 
was good to see ex-presidents doing such things, he did not 
raise the topic of what, if any, role President Chissano 
might play in Mozambique after leaving the office he has held 
since 1986. 
 
Looking to a Guebuza Government 
------------------------------- 
7.(C) Guebuza said that his government would value and 
benefit from the experience FRELIMO had gained since 1974. 
He cited decentralization as a focus and said he wanted to 
increase the government,s capacity to make a difference in 
rural areas. He also emphasized the need for more training, 
a focus of the GRM,s dialogue with the World Bank. He cited 
the lack of technical schools in rural areas as a key 
deficiency he had identified in his travels over the last 
month. Guebuza noted as well the importance of fighting 
AIDS. In response to the Ambassador,s comment that the 
justice system was inhibiting investment and growth, he 
acknowledged problems with both the police and the courts, 
though he described them as being in rural areas. He said 
Mozambicans needed to know that their actions would bring 
clear responses from all areas of the justice system. 
Guebuza emphasized his focus on monitoring and results in all 
government efforts. 
 
8.(C) Comment: It appeared that Guebuza was being careful to 
avoid any perception that he would act differently from the 
popular Chissano, with whom he is not close. He made a point 
the Prime Minister also made to the MCC team when they 
visited last week, which is that the reform priorities have 
been set and forward movement on them will continue. While 
Guebuza,s priorities do not sound all that different from 
Chissano,s, he is widely viewed as one who would be tougher 
on accountability and on delivery of results, should he be 
elected as Mozambique,s next President. End comment. 
LA LIME